Olympic Soccer: Best Bets for Thursday 7/25/24

The women's soccer tournament at the Paris Olympics kicks off on Thursday with the group openers.

For the women's tourney, there are 12 teams split into three four-team groups. The two top sides from each group will automatically advance to the knockout rounds, and a pair of third-place teams will join them.

Olympic Soccer Best Bets

Spain vs. Japan

Japan and Draw (+150)

Japan (seventh in FIFA's World Rankings) start with a tough match versus Spain (first), the defending World Cup champs and the team with the second-best odds to win the gold medal (+200). But I think Japan can put up a fight.

Starting with April's SheBelieves Cup, Japan has lost just once across its past five matches, and they've shown they can hang with top sides during that stretch, losing a tight 2-1 match to the U.S. and drawing 1-1 with Brazil.

In the defeat against the Americans, Japan put five shots on target and held 47% of the possession, so the close result was no fluke.

Over three pre-Olympics friendlies, Japan has been rolling, twice besting New Zealand (4-1 and 2-0) and also topping Ghana (4-0). In all, Japan is averaging 2.0 goals per match across their five 2024 fixtures.

The last time Spain lost -- a 4-0 defeat in the group stage of the 2023 World Cup -- it was at the hands of Japan, so manager Futoshi Ikeda's squad knows it can compete with Spain.

Of course, the Spanish present a tall task, but I believe Japan have what it takes to get at least a draw on Thursday.

USWNT vs. Zambia

United States Over 1.5 First-Half Goals (+110)

The United States (5th in FIFA World Rankings) is a massive favorite over Zambia (64th), with the U.S. listed at -3000 to take all three points. The Americans are the tourney favorites, coming it at +175 odds to win the gold medal, while Zambia are +9500 to win the tourney.

On paper, this is a clear mismatch, and I like the Americans' chances to score multiple goals in the first half.

This will be the first major tournament for the U.S. with manager Emma Hayes in charge. Hayes is a top-class manager and a seven-time winner of the FA Women's Super League in England. So far, she's managed the USWNT for only four friendlies, but the U.S. has yet to surrender a goal under her watch, allowing just five total shots on target over the four matches.

Playing under a new manager and coming off a Round-of-16 exit at the last World Cup, the Americans will surely want to start this tourney well. Plus, with Germany (4th in FIFA World Rankings) and Australia (12th) also in this group, the U.S. doesn't have much margin for error.

Going by FIFA World Rankings, Zambia is the lowest-ranked team in the Olympic tournament. In the 2023 World Cup, they struggled mightily in two group-stage matches versus top sides, losing 5-0 to both Spain and Japan and recording a mere 0.4 expected goals (xG) -- per FBRef's xG model -- combined over the two matches.

I like the Americans to start with a bang on Thursday and to net at least two goals in the first half.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.