Northern Iowa vs Illinois State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for MVC Tournament

The No. 6 seed Northern Iowa Panthers (20-12, 11-9 MVC) will take the court in the MVC tournament against the No. 3 seed Illinois State Redbirds (20-11, 12-8 MVC), Friday at 9:30 p.m. ET live on ESPN+.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Friday, March 6, 2026
• Game time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN+
• Location: St. Louis, Missouri
• Arena: Enterprise Center

Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Northern Iowa win (60.8%)

Before you bet on Friday's Northern Iowa-Illinois State spread (Northern Iowa -1.5) or total (127.5 points), see the betting insights and trends below.

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Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Northern Iowa has compiled a 15-15-0 ATS record so far this year.
• Illinois State has covered 17 times in 30 chances against the spread this season.
• Northern Iowa (11-13) covers a lower percentage of games when it is favored by 1.5 points or more this season (45.8%) than Illinois State (5-5) does as a 1.5+-point underdog (50%).
• At home, the Panthers sport a worse record against the spread (7-9-0) compared to their ATS record in away games (7-4-0).
• This season, the Redbirds are 10-4-0 at home against the spread (.714 winning percentage). Away, they are 4-8-0 ATS (.333).
• Northern Iowa is 10-11-0 against the spread in conference games this year.
• Illinois State is 11-9-0 against the spread in MVC action this year.

Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Northern Iowa has come away with 16 wins in the 24 contests it has been listed as the moneyline favorite in this season.
• This season, the Panthers have come away with a win 16 times in 23 chances when named as a favorite of at least -120 or better on the moneyline.
• Illinois State is 4-6 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 40% of those games).
• The Redbirds are 3-5 (winning only 37.5% of their games) when they have played as a moneyline underdog of +100 or longer.
• Sportsbooks have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Northern Iowa has a 54.5% chance of pulling out a win.

Northern Iowa vs. Illinois State Head-to-Head Comparison

• Northern Iowa outscores opponents by 8.2 points per game (scoring 69.3 per game to rank 324th in college basketball while allowing 61.1 per outing to rank first in college basketball) and has a +262 scoring differential overall.
• Trey Campbell leads Northern Iowa, scoring 13.5 points per game (482nd in the country).
• Illinois State's +236 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 7.6 points per game) is a result of putting up 75.9 points per game (178th in college basketball) while giving up 68.3 per outing (47th in college basketball).
• Chase Walker is 462nd in the nation with a team-high 13.6 points per game.
• The Panthers average 28.6 rebounds per game (329th in college basketball) while conceding 31 per outing to their opponents. They are outrebounded by 2.4 boards per game.
• Tristan Smith paces the team with 5.2 rebounds per game (513th in college basketball play).
• The Redbirds are 102nd in the country at 33.4 rebounds per game. That's 4.2 more than the 29.2 their opponents average.
• Walker tops the team with 5.2 rebounds per game (513th in college basketball).
• Northern Iowa averages 98.2 points per 100 possessions (169th in college basketball), while giving up 86.6 points per 100 possessions (25th in college basketball).
• The Redbirds record 101 points per 100 possessions (99th in college basketball), while giving up 90.9 points per 100 possessions (73rd in college basketball).

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