NHL Betting Picks for Monday 12/11/23: Buffalo Could Get Back on Track

After a crazy weekend in the NHL, we kick off the next week with four games tonight.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders

Over 5.5 Goals (-134)

The 5.5 total games are becoming increasingly rarer, and they usually involve teams like the New York Islanders. The Islanders have a reputation for playing a sound, defensively solid game while having trouble scoring. They also get some of the best goaltending in the league.

That defensive reputation doesn't actually hold up this season. The Islanders have allowed the most shot attempts and fourth-most expected goals per 60 minutes this season. They are being propped up by solid goaltending, but Ilya Sorokin only ranks 18th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes this season with .197.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have their own Ilya in net tonight in Ilya Samsonov. He hasn't been as solid as Sorokin, allowing .331 goals above expected per 60. The Leafs haven't been as high-scoring as they normally are, but they still rank ninth in goals per game.

The Maple Leafs are playing without three of their regular defensemen, which is partially the reason they rank in the league's bottom 10 in shots against and high-danger chances against per 60 minutes. Joseph Woll was keeping them in games at goalie, and his injury could hurt them.

The Islanders are not incapable of scoring goals in good spots. They scored seven goals against the Columbus Blue Jackets and four against the San Jose Sharks last week. The Leafs likely won't be that incompetent defensively, but at least New York has a chance to score goals if facing weak opposition.

The mix of all of these things and the modern NHL trend of scoring being on the rise makes me believe that this 5.5 total is too low, so I'd lay the -134 on it this game.

Detroit Red Wings at Dallas Stars

Dallas -1.5 (+118)

The Detroit Red Wings grabbed headlines in the last few weeks when they signed Patrick Kane to add him to a pretty talented forward group. He wasn't going to be able to fix their defense and goaltending issues, however.

In two games with Kane in the lineup, Detroit has allowed 11 goals. Those were games against the Sharks and Ottawa Senators, two teams who are unlikely to make the playoffs. Both of those games were also at home.

They don't have the same luxuries tonight, as they'll be on the road against one of the best teams in the NHL. The Dallas Stars have actually been in a slump lately, but they have faced a fairly tough schedule. They are still ninth in the league in points percentage and have the fourth-best expected goal percentage at five-on-five.

Detroit will be without Dylan Larkin tonight, a huge blow to their lineup. They were already without their other top-six center in J.T. Compher. Now, David Perron will be suspended for this game. Those are three forwards who could have helped Detroit compete in this game. With all three of them missing, they could struggle to score.

Dallas is the better team when both are fully healthy. When Detroit is this depleted, they are leaps and bounds better. That's why laying -1.5 goals tonight is a viable way of attacking this game.

Arizona Coyotes at Buffalo Sabres

Sabres ML (-128)

One of these teams was supposed to take a step forward toward contending for a playoff spot. It was supposed to be the Buffalo Sabres, but instead, the Arizona Coyotes currently sit in a wild card spot.

The Sabres have been very up-and-down this season. They currently sit third-to-last in the Eastern Conference. A lot of that has to do with injuries, and they've been much better since Tage Thompson returned to the lineup. It's only been two games, but the Sabres have played great at five-on-five, controlling 55.2% of the expected goals, including a win over the Boston Bruins.

The Coyotes were on a hot streak that has come to an abrupt halt over their last two games. They've been outscored nine to four in those two games. They are still not a strong five-on-five team, ranking 21st in expected goals percentage.

The other aspect of the Coyotes that the Sabres can exploit tonight is goaltending. Connor Ingram has been one of the best goalies in the league to this point of the season, but Karel Vejmelka will be in goal tonight. Vejmelka has allowed 5.9 goals above expected this season.

Buffalo looks to be playing better and gets to face the Coyotes without arguably their best player. That makes them a team to bet on in this spot.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.