NFL Win Totals: The Start of a New Era in Houston

The Houston Texans ended the 2022 season with a 3-13-1 record, finishing last in the AFC South and last in the AFC.

Their win total for 2023 is set at 6.5, per the NFL win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook.

With C.J. Stroud under center and DeMeco Ryans at the helm, Houston is looking to take start a new era and contend for the AFC South.

Will the Texans surpass their listed win total in 2023?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Houston Texans 2023 Outlook

Projected Win Total: 6.5

• Over: +110
• Under: -134

Odds to Make the Playoffs: +520
Odds to Win the AFC South: +800
Odds to Win the AFC: +8500
Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +18000

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

• Head Coach: DeMeco Ryans in for Lovie Smith
• Offensive Coordinator: Bobby Slowik in for Pep Hamilton
• Defensive Coordinator: Matt Burke in for Lovie Smith

Why Houston Could Win Over 6.5 Games

• C.J. Stroud Is Ready
• Dameon Pierce Takes the Next Step
• DeMeco Ryans and Will Anderson Jr. Turn the Defense Around
• The AFC South

After three consecutive seasons with fewer than five wins, the Texans hit the reset button this offseason. They will enter 2023 with a new coaching staff, new quarterback, and new defensive cornerstone. Houston is thinking long-term with the changes they made, and their results in 2023 will largely be a result of how quickly these additions adapt to their new roles.

It all starts with quarterback C.J. Stroud, who Houston selected with the second overall pick in this year's draft. Working with a talented wide receiver group over the past two seasons at Ohio State, Stroud completed 575 of 830 pass attempts (69.3%) for 8,123 yards (9.8 yards per attempt), 85 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He was third in the nation in QBR last year and should provide a substantial upgrade over Davis Mills, who has started 28 games over the past two seasons. In 2021, his Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade ranked 52nd (58.5). In 2022, he his grade ranked 48th (61.9).

How quickly Stroud adapts to life in the NFL will have a large impact on Houston's path to winning at least seven games this season. His top pass-catchers will be tight end Dalton Schultz, and wide receivers Robert Woods, Nico Collins, and John Metchie III. To find success in his rookie season, Stroud will need to elevate the play of this group, which may be a difficult task.

The good news for Stroud is he may have the support of an effective run game led by sophomore Dameon Pierce. As a rookie, Pierce recorded 220 carries for 939 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns, with 30 receptions on 39 targets for 165 receiving yards and 1 receiving touchdown. He earned PFF's 15th-best rushing grade (84.8), tied with Seattle's Kenneth Walker III and just above New England's Rhamondre Stevenson. More impressively, he did it running behind a Texans' offensive line that earned the fourth-worst run-blocking grade (47.9) from PFF.

Houston signed running back Devin Singletary in free agency, but the potential for upside in their running game will come through Pierce. If he takes the next step in 2023, he could develop into one of the better rushers in the league. That would be a huge help to Stroud and would increase the chances of Houston winning at least seven games this season.

On the other side of the ball, Houston is hoping DeMeco Ryans can start to turn things around. In his two seasons as the defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers, Ryans' defenses ranked inside the top five each year in Pro Football Focus' team defense grades. In 2021, they allowed the 10th-fewest points in the league (365). In 2022, they allowed the fewest points (277). Houston has a long way to go before they can even begin to approach those kind of results, but they should improve with Ryans in charge.

That improvement will be spearheaded by rookie linebacker Will Anderson Jr., who the Texans' traded up to draft third overall, immediately after selecting Stroud with the second pick. Anderson should make an impact right away for a Texans' defense that earned PFF's second-worst grade last season. Anderson currently has the best odds (+400) to win defensive rookie of the year, according to the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. If the combination of Ryans and Anderson has an immediate impact on the Texans' defense, they will have a much better chance of winning at least seven games.

Working in Houston's favor is their division -- the AFC South. Three of the four teams in the AFC South rank inside the bottom-eight in odds to make the playoffs this season, the most of any division. As a result, the Texans have the fifth-easiest schedule via 2023 win totals. Houston will not have to face any of the squads with the four-best Super Bowl odds, according to the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. If Houston's new additions can get them moving in the right direction, their schedule provides a path to winning at least seven games this season.

Why Houston Could Win Under 6.5 Games

• C.J. Stroud Starts Slowly
• An Uncertain Supporting Cast
• The AFC South Surprises

A slow start to Stroud's rookie campaign will make winning at least seven games a very difficult task for Houston. After a terrible 2022 season, the Texans have a tremendous amount of room for improvement on both sides of the ball. They earned PFF's worst overall team grade (60.8). Their offense graded out inside the bottom five in every major category except for receiving, where they finished in ninth. Their defense graded out inside the bottom six in every major category except pass rushing, where they finished 15th.

Anything less than a significant improvement could result in another difficult season for Houston, and that puts a lot of pressure on Stroud. The list of quarterbacks drafted in the first round who have struggled in their rookie season is a long one. Even some signal-callers who went on to be true franchise cornerstones didn't ascend to that level until their second or third years in the league. An average start from Stroud would likely still result in a below-average season for Houston. Anything less and they could be looking at another season near the bottom of the NFL.

Making things even more difficult for Stroud is the talent level of the wide receivers he will be working with. Robert Woods will be joining his third team in three years after managing just 527 receiving yards on the Tennessee Titans in 2022. He finished 93rd in PFF's receiving grades. Nico Collins missed seven games last season after missing three in 2021. His receiving grade ranked 50th. John Metchie III, the 44th overall pick in the 2022 draft, will be entering his first season in the league after sitting out his rookie year while undergoing treatments for leukemia.

To say there is uncertainty with this pass-catching group would be an understatement. It's not an ideal group for Stroud to start his career with. There are scenarios where this group improves as Collins and Metchie gain experience, and Woods regains his form from earlier years, but that is a very optimistic outlook.

Finally, while the AFC South is advantageous to Houston's schedule, the division could be much improved by the end of the season. That would be an issue for the Texans, who play both their games against the Titans and one of their games against the Indianapolis Colts in the final four weeks of the season.

The most difficult parts of Houston's schedule are at the start and middle of their season. Two of their first three games are on the road against the Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars. From Week 10 to Week 14, their schedule includes games against the Cincinnati Bengals, Jaguars, and New York Jets.

If Ryan Tannehill or Will Levis have the Titans moving in the right direction, and/or Anthony Richardson has improved after nearly a full season in the league, the final four weeks of the schedule could be difficult for Houston, as well. Of course, Stroud and the Texans could also be improved by then, but the overall timing of when Houston faces their AFC South opponents could make their path to seven wins even more difficult.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.