NFL Week 12 Expert Betting Picks and Predictions

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop. They'll share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Note: Betting lines and numberFire's player projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Betting Picks for Week 12

Jim Sannes, Digital Media Managing Editor

Side: Houston Texans +1.5 (-110)

My model has shown value in the Texans' moneyline every week this year, and the streak continues in Week 12. They've already beaten the Jaguars once this season and now get to face them at home. Even after a three-pick game, the Texans' offense still ranks 10th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted numbers. The Jags have clicked along much better this year with Zay Jones active, so we do need to bump the Jags up. But even with that, my model still has the Texans favored, so I'm happy to take the +1.5 here.

Total: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers over 43 (-110)

Thanksgiving Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (-114)

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Side: New England Patriots -3.5 (-105)

It doesn't feel good to back the Patriots -- I get it. As of midweek, we don't even know who they're starting at quarterback. I'm not sure it matters a whole lot for this one. Regardless of who is under center, the Pats will likely have success versus a Giants run D that ranks ninth-worst by numberFire's metrics, and I think New England will keep it on the ground early and often. Plus, Bill Belichick's defense should be a nightmare for Tommy Devito.

Total: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Under 42.5 (-110)

Thanksgiving Player Prop: Riley Patterson Over 7.5 Kicking Points (-108)

Tom Vecchio, Editor

Side: Cleveland Browns +2.5 (-110)

Total: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts Under 43.5 (-110)

Thanksgiving Player Prop: CeeDee Lamb Over 7.5 Receptions (+112)

For the year, Lamb has a 27.0% target share and a 35.4% air yards share, both of which lead the Cowboys. Over the last four weeks, those numbers have jumped to a 32.7% target share and 41.9% air yards share. In these four weeks, his target share is double the next highest player on the Cowboys. Washington has allowed the most (2,110) receiving yards to wide receivers, the most (15) touchdowns, and the eighth-most (142) receptions.

Kenyatta Storin, Editor

Side: Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 (-110)

Boy, the Raiders must have really hated Josh McDaniels, eh? While they ultimately fell short in a bid to upset Miami on the road last week, keeping it a one-score game despite turning the ball over three times shows far more fight than the early-season version. Meanwhile, Kansas City's glaring weakness at wide receiver was on full display in primetime against Philadelphia, and they've now been shut out in the second half in three straight games. This just feels like a lot of points for this edition of the Chiefs to cover in an away game, and the Raiders might be able to exploit the 29th-ranked schedule-adjusted run defense, per numberFire.

Total: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Under 41.0 (-110)

Thanksgiving Player Prop: Christian McCaffrey Over 32.5 receiving yards (-114)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Side: Washington Commanders +12.5 (-110)

There's this stat going around about Dallas being 1-11 against the spread in their last 12 Thanksgiving games, with Dak Prescott 1-5 himself. I take trends like that with a grain of salt, but I can't say I'm not intrigued by this Commanders line. Sure, Washington just lost to the Tommy Devito Giants by 12. And yes, Dallas already has six 20-point wins this season. But Washington has been frisky on the road, and their league-leading 40.2 pass attempts per game leaves the backdoor open for a late cover.

Total: Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos Under 35.5 (-115)

Thanksgiving Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Gabriel Santiago, Writer

Side: Philadelphia Eagles -3 (-120)

As we approach Turkey Day, the reigning NFC champion Eagles seem to be entering full form. Ahead of their bid with Buffalo, Philadelphia owns the NFL’s best record at 9-1. Against the spread, the Birds are also tops in the league at 6-2-2. Behind a massive offensive line, Philly is running the rock consistently and efficiently with Jalen Hurts (team-leading 9 TD), D’Andre Swift (4.7 yards per carry) and Kenneth Gainwell. The trio should do well against a Bills defense that is allowing a chunky 4.5 YPC. Additionally, we have all seen how hot and cold Buffalo can be. Considering this contest will take place at the Linc, I have no trouble laying a field goal with the hometown Eagles.

Total: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals Under 34.5 (-110)

Thanksgiving Player Prop: George Kittle Any Time TD Scorer (+170)

Annie Nader, Writer

Side: Tennessee Titans -4.0 (-106)

The Panthers have lost seven of their 10 games by a margin of eight or more points. The Titans aren’t all that impressive, either, but they have a solid rush defense (sixth-ranked) and rank nine spots ahead of Carolina in numberFire’s power rankings. Plus, they are 3-1 and have a positive 24-point differential when playing at home, so I like Will Levis and company’s chances to outdo the Panthers by a touchdown. numberFire’s model has Tennessee winning this game by 5.66 points.

Total: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings Over 43.5 (-105)

Thanksgiving Player Prop: Sam LaPorta Any Time TD (+175)

Nick Vazquez, Writer

Side: Minnesota Vikings -3.5 (-105)

Total: Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles Under 48.5 (-110)

Thanksgiving Player Prop: Jake Ferguson Any Time TD (+180)

The shocking truth: Jake Ferguson leads all NFL players in red zone targets with 22. He has turned four of those targets into touchdowns. In this game against the Washington Commanders that just got roasted by Tommy Devito, the Dallas Cowboys should have plenty of opportunities to get into the red zone. They'll look to Ferguson and CeeDee Lamb while down there, and getting +180 for Ferguson to score a touchdown is good enough to wager on for this Thanksgiving Day slate.

Riley Thomas, Writer

Side: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-110)

Total: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans Under 48.5 (-114)

Thanksgiving Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Packers have numberFire’s seventh-worst adjusted run defense, creating the perfect opportunity for the Lions’ run game to feast on Thanksgiving. Detroit averages the fifth-most rushing yards per carry and holds numberFire’s fourth-best adjusted run offense. Jahmyr Gibbs has eclipsed 60 rushing yards in three of his last four games. Since David Montgomery returned from injury in Week 10, Gibbs is still averaging 11.0 carries per game while playing in 56.9% of snaps (Montgomery at 39.0%). Gibbs could be in store for a big day.

Aidan McGrath, Writer

Side: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (-110)

The Buccaneers have played some surprisingly solid football this year and have an edge over the Colts on both offense and defense, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Colts star Jonathan Taylor could struggle to run against the Bucs' stout defensive front -- numberFire's No. 1 run-stopping unit -- while Gardner Minshew has been inconsistent even against weaker secondaries. Minshew is tied with the third-highest rate of turnover-worthy plays but hasn't been overly punished for his risky play, which could change this week.

Total: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Over 41 (-110)

Thanksgiving Player Prop: Jordan Love Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Scott Edwards, Writer

Side: Miami Dolphins -9.5 (-115)

Total: Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys Over 48.5 (-110)

Thanksgiving Player Prop: Dak Prescott Over 275.5 Passing Yards (-114)

The Washington Commanders are allowing the third-most passing yards per game this season at a 272.6 mark. Prior to the Cowboys' easy outing against the Carolina Panthers last week, Prescott had three straight games of 300 or more yards -- including two over 350 yards. The Commanders are a better football team than their loss to the Giants signaled. They should force the Cowboys to score points, and that means letting Prescott air it out. With no Ezekiel Elliott around to have his usual Thanksgiving performance, it's the "Dak Show" at AT&T Stadium.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.