NFL Offensive Player of the Year Betting: Garrett Wilson Cleared for Takeoff

As one of the most exciting young receivers in the NFL, Garrett Wilson of the New York Jets certainly has a bright future ahead of him.

Wilson won the 2022 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award after catching more than 83 passes for 1,103 yards and 4 scores in his first professional season. He'll now receive an upgrade at quarterback, going from Zach Wilson/Joe Flacco/Mike White to Aaron Rodgers in 2023.

The AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have Wilson listed at +2500 for the upcoming campaign, leaving him tied (with players like Cooper Kupp, Jonathan Taylor and Patrick Mahomes) for the eighth-best odds in the market. Ja'Marr Chase (+1200) is the outright favorite.

What needs to happen for Wilson to make a leap and win the award this coming year?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Receivers for OPOY

Wide receivers have won the AP NFL OPOY award in three of the past four seasons, which includes Justin Jefferson's Herculean showing to be named last year's recipient. In 2022, Jefferson produced a whopping 128 catches for 1,809 yards -- both figures led the league. He was the runaway winner.

The OPOY winner in 2021 was Kupp. Behind a season that eventually led to a Lombardi Trophy, Kupp dazzled his way to a receiving "Triple Crown," pacing all other wideouts in receptions (145), yards (1,947) and touchdowns (16). In what was truly a historic year, Kupp finished third for the 2021 AP NFL Most Valuable Player -- an award no receiver has ever won.

The other recent receiver to be named OPOY was Michael Thomas of the New Orleans Saints. Back in 2019 (Drew Brees' penultimate year), Thomas set the NFL single-season receptions mark with 149 catches. Like Wilson, Thomas is also a product of The Ohio State University. Arguably, the Buckeyes transition wideouts to the NFL better than any institution in history -- especially in recent years.

It is no understatement that Wilson will need to take his game to the next level to contend for this award. Already a high-quality player, Wilson's numbers need to increase for him to reach elite status, and with Rodgers now calling the signals in New York, the sky is the limit for Wilson in Year 2.

Year 2 Progressions

Wilson ranked within the NFL's top-20 receivers for both catches (83), yardage (1,103) and receiving first downs (56). For a rookie, that production is quite impressive, but it is not adequate for OPOY consideration. The addition of a four-time league MVP ups the ante.

Rodgers has helped shape the career of numerous Pro Bowl-caliber receivers, as pass catchers just seem to perform better around him. Through 14 seasons as starting quarterback of the Green Bay Packers, Rodgers gained a reputation as the most accurate passer ever, sporting a 475-to-105 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In more recent seasons, Rodgers has helped develop receivers like Davante Adams (who has +2800 OPOY odds at FanDuel Sportsbook), Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard.

With Rodgers' uncanny ability to throw receivers open, Wilson should feast against single coverage. Keep in mind -- Wilson has all-world speed, showcasing a 4.36 40-yard dash at the 2022 NFL Combine. With Breece Hall in the backfield and Rodgers' mastery of play-action, Wilson has the potential to catch copious touchdowns from distance.

With a first-down rate of 67.5% as a rookie, Wilson has the invaluable trait of settling past the sticks. These are the sort of high-football IQ tendencies that will transform a player from great to elite.

Still, Wilson will need to pile on the receptions, yards and game-changing plays to earn legitmate OPOY consideration in 2023.

Conclusion

Wilson is only the second receiver in the past eight seasons to be named Offensive Rookie of the Year. Wideouts have had better success in the AP Offensive Player of the Year market, taking the award in three out of the last four years.

The former Buckeye has both high-level abilities and knowledge of the offensive system. The playbook should expand under Rodgers and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and players like Wilson and Hall can reap the benefits. With top notch-speed, Wilson will surely be a nightmare for defenses in 2023.

If Wilson keeps up the clutch first-down grabs along with more touchdown scores and splash plays, his name will continue trending upwards. Regardless, there will be plenty of attention on the Jets this season. They have a decorated new quarterback, both reigning (offensive and defensive) rookies of the year and possibly a documentary crew from HBO Hard Knocks on the sidelines.

The +2500 odds for Wilson to win the 2023-24 AP NFL Offensive Player of the Year is a pretty fair number. For more than double the market favorite, Wilson has optimistic value with Rodgers and other talented players around him. He'll need to make a leap, but that's very possible for him in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.