NFL MVP Odds Update: Lamar Jackson Jumps to the Top Following Primetime Beatdown

The NFL MVP award is like trying to catch lighting in a bottle. It's been a topsy-turvy race with the odds dramatically shifting after nearly every week of play.

We have a new leader in the clubhouse following Week 16's slate of games. The Baltimore Ravens bludgeoned the San Francisco 49ers with a 33-19 win on Christmas night. Lamar Jackson made a statement with 297 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. San Francisco's Brock Purdy -- the MVP frontrunner going into last week -- turned in a stinker with four interceptions and saw his MVP resume take a big hit.

Not all of the 49ers' MVP contenders saw their odds worsen, though. Christian McCaffrey has taken Purdy's place as San Francisco's top MVP contender after he totaled 131 scrimmage yards while recording his 14th rushing touchdown in Monday's loss.

Before Week 17 begins with the New York Jets at the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night, let's dive into FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL MVP odds.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL MVP Odds

Notable Jumps

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: -170

The Ravens are 9-1 since Week 6 and are currently on a five-game winning streak. This has vaulted Baltimore to the second-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl (+400), per the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and they are the favorite to win the AFC (+200).

Lamar Jackson has been the star of the show and is in a great position to win his second MVP award since 2019. His passing stats have not been Earth-shattering by any means with 0.00 expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB) and a 0.9% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE%). His 3,357 passing yards are pretty much in the middle of the road (15th-best); the same can be said for Jackson's 19 passing touchdowns (tied for 7th-most) and 66.3% completion percentage (11th-best).

So how has Action Jackson separated himself from the crowd? Most importantly, the Ravens are winning. Of course, Jackson's legs are always a big part of the equation. He leads all quarterbacks with 786 rushing yards; the next-best mark is Justin Fields' 585 rushing yards. Jackson already has his most rushing yards since 2020, and with two weeks remaining, he could surpass 900 rushing yards.

Since Week 14, Jackson has posted excellent numbers on the ground with 24.9 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) and an average of 70.7 rushing yards per game. He's also seen his run-game workload increase with double-digit carries in three of the last four games.

Frankly, this season, this award could simply come down to what have you done for me lately. The odds continue to shift week in and week out. Why? There simply has been no clear-cut MVP leader this season.

While Jackson has not had his best season (2019's stats were certainly better), he's on path to win the award thanks to underwhelming competition. His odds went from +500 in Week 16 to -170 after Monday's game. Plus, the Ravens are red-hot and could be the best team in the league right now -- which only aids Jackson's chances.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +470

One could argue Christian McCaffrey is the most deserving MVP contender. Brock Purdy was among the top MVP contenders for a few weeks, which led to some heated debates. Many argued Purdy is a "game manager" and greatly benefits from the pieces around him as well as Kyle Shanahan's system. This is a debate for another time, but the 49ers' most recent game certainly strengthens that argument.

It's no secret that San Francisco's offense begins and ends with the run game. This is part of the reason they were willing to give up two second-day draft picks for McCaffrey last season while taking on the star running back's hefty contract (roughly $12 million per year).

The move has paid off big time as CMC has reclaimed the title as the NFL's top running back. His value to the offense is as clear as day. Following another great performance, McCaffrey has become the second favorite to win MVP. How realistic are his chances, though? The MVP feels like a QB award.

The Minnesota Vikings' Adrian Peterson was the last non-QB to win the award, and that was way back in 2012. Peterson totaled 2,314 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns during that MVP season. For comparison, McCaffrey has 1,932 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns ahead of Week 17. With an average of 128.8 scrimmage yards per game, CMC is on pace for about 2,190 total yards (assuming he does not sit out in Week 18). Keep in mind, McCaffrey would also have one more game played than Peterson did in 2012.

While CMC's yardage will likely fall short of AP's 2012 season, his touchdown totals are jaw-dropping. McCaffrey could be good for another three touchdowns yet this year with his average of 1.4 touchdowns per game. This is going to be one of the highest touchdown marks in NFL history. McCaffrey's 21 TDs is already tied for the ninth-highest mark in one season. Ladainian Tomlinson has the all-time record at 31 touchdowns. McCaffrey will likely fall short of that all-time mark, but he could crack the top-five for the most touchdowns in one season (the fifth-most is 25).

McCaffrey certainly has an MVP resume, and it's about time we had a serious contender who is not a QB. He's also -220 to win Offensive Player of the Year. CMC may need the Ravens to slip in the final two weeks if he is to win the MVP hardware. After seeing his odds go from +1200 to +470, McCaffrey will need another big leap to win the award.

Steep Drops

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +1300

After throwing four picks in Week 16, Brock Purdy's MVP campaign is not looking so pretty. After carrying an elite 0.52 EPA/DB from Week 13 to Week 15, Purdy had -0.63 EPA/DB against the Ravens on Christmas.

Considering the stakes of Week 16's matchup and the primetime slot, it will be extremely difficult for Purdy to recover from his dreadful outing. He was the clear MVP favorite last week at -200 and is now +1300. Ouch! Good luck finding another odd shift this harsh in the final weeks of the regular season.

One thing's for sure -- Purdy must be near-flawless in the final two games to re-enter the conversation. Only two weeks remain in the regular season, so the gap could be too much to overcome.

In the end, Purdy's tendency to have off games could cost him the award. At times, the second-year signal-caller has been extremely efficient, and he ranks second in the league with 29 passing touchdowns. But Purdy has now had three games with at least two interceptions. Some of his worst games have been under the spotlight, such as throwing two picks in back-to-back games against the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals.

His performance against Baltimore was the worst yet by a landslide. The Ravens' defense may have buried Brock's MVP chances.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +1900

Following the Dallas Cowboys' 31-10 loss against the Buffalo Bills in Week 15, Dak Prescott's MVP odds rose to +900. Dallas was on the losing end of another road game against an AFC East foe in Week 16. Once again, Dak's MVP chances have taken another hit, ballooning to +1900.

Prescott looked lost against Buffalo with only 134 passing yards and one interception. His MVP drop after Week 15 mostly centered around his individual performance. Following the 22-20 loss against the Miami Dolphins, Dak's drop seems focused on Dallas' failure to win big games away from home.

The Cowboys' star quarterback was solid against Miami with 253 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0.16 EPA/DB. Dallas is now one game behind the Philadelphia Eagles for first place in the NFC East, though. It felt like the Cowboys would have to win the division for Dak to win MVP. Dallas' division title odds are slim, the the 'Boys at +380 to win the East.

America's Team is now 3-5 on the road, including losses against the 49ers, Eagles, Bills, and Dolphins. MVP candidates have to get done in hostile atmospheres and in headline games; Dak simply has not done that. It's very unlikely that the Cowboys will have their first MVP winner this year since the 1993 season (Emmitt Smith).

Honorable Mention

Trending Up

• Tua Tagovailoa +900

Falling Down

• Josh Allen +1300

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.