NFL MVP Betting: Can Aaron Rodgers Tie the All-Time Record for MVPs With a Fifth?

No active player has won more MVP awards than Aaron Rodgers. He’s taken home the trophy four separate times over the course of his impressive career. With +1600 odds to win it again in 2023 on the FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL season awards betting odds market, there is clearly belief he has a chance to win the award for a fifth time this season, which would tie him with Peyton Manning as the all-time record-holder for most MVP titles.

Still, his +1600 odds tie him with three other quarterbacks – Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa –  as the seventh-most likely quarterback to win the award this season. The 39-year-old endured a rough 2022 season, leading to just his third losing record as their starter in his entire career.

Fortunately, the veteran quarterback is moving on to greener pastures in the AFC East this season. After a career of leading the Green Bay Packers, he’ll now take over as the starting quarterback for the New York Jets.

A Fresh Start

Rodgers’ new landing spot offers him something the 2022 Packers could not – a stacked supporting cast. The 2020 and 2021 Packers were home to one of the best receivers in the league, Davante Adams. In those seasons, Rodgers threw just 9 interceptions over 32 games while leading an efficient offense with Adams as his top receiver. That changed in 2022 after the team traded Adams away to the Las Vegas Raiders.

In 2022, Rodgers’ interception rate “spiked” all the way up to a 2.2% mark. It was the first time since 2010 he threw for double-digit interceptions in a single season. In what was his worst season in essentially forever, he was still just about average when it came to chucking turnovers.

Without Adams as the team’s WR1, Rodgers spent much of the 2022 season throwing to a group of mostly unproven rookies. Allen Lazard – his most “reliable” receiver heading into the season – was the intended target on five of Rodgers’ interceptions, while fellow veterans Randall Cobb and Robert Tonyan were the targets on three more. 

Lazard and Cobb did follow Rodgers to New York this offseason, but the Jets will be offering up a much more exciting supporting cast around them than the Packers were able to last season. Veterans Corey Davis and Mecole Hardman are each reliable role players, but second-year wideout Garrett Wilson is the real icing on the cake for this season.

Wilson, the 2022 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, looked sensational in spite of his abysmal quarterback play as a rookie. Playing with quarterbacks Mike White, Joe Flacco, and Zach Wilson still yielded an 83-catch, 1,103-yard, 4-score season for the 10th-overall pick in the 2022 draft.

Rodgers has seemingly always played best when he has had a go-to guy in the passing game. Over the last decade or so, we’ve seen him lean heavily on Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson to generate hyper-efficient offenses. Wilson seems primed to be the next in line for that connection with Rodgers in the passing game, and Rodgers has already begun making comparisons between Wilson and Adams in OTAs.

Wilson wasn’t the only Jets rookie to make a splash in 2022. Running back Breece Hall a second-round pick from the same draft class, was pacing to win the award himself prior to his season-ending knee injury. The explosive back was a dominant runner capable of ripping off huge gains on the ground; he had two scores of over 30 rushing yards despite playing a partial season. Hall was a dynamic receiver, as well. He isn’t the kind of every-down receiver Christian McCaffrey can be for his offenses, but Hall’s 2.00 yards per route run exceeded McCaffrey’s 1.67 mark last season. His 4.7 average depth of target was the highest mark among all running backs last year, meaning he’ll be a dynamic weapon for Rodgers in the passing game.

A Well-Rounded Team

As good as the Jets’ offense looks on paper heading into the season, even MVP candidates need to get a little help from the other side of the ball. MVP winners in recent years have all won at least 11 games in those seasons -- and usually even more. Rodgers led the Packers to back-to-back 13-3 records in his recent MVP campaigns. Even the best offenses need some defensive support to put that many W’s up on the board, and the Jets’ defense should be more than capable of providing that.

The Jets' defense was one of the most impressive units in the league last season – something Rodgers witnessed firsthand when they kept his offense to just 10 points in Week 6. They allowed the fourth-fewest points (316) of any team during the regular season while coughing up the fewest yards per play (4.8) average in the league. Even more impressive was their ability to stop opposing offenses without generating turnovers. Only four other defenses in the league had a lower turnover rate than the Jets’ 8.3% mark last season.

Their pass rush managed to pressure opposing quarterbacks at the third-highest rate in 2022 despite blitzing at the lowest rate of any team in the league. The team will be retaining all of its most-productive pass-rushers from last season, too, setting them up for another excellent year. If we see more turnovers break the Jets’ way, they have a legitimate shot to be the best defense in the league in 2023.

Rodgers’ brand of efficient, turnover-free offense lends itself well to winning football. With an elite defense backing up his offense, it’s not out of the question for the Jets – who finished 2022 with a 7-10 record – to replicate the 13-win seasons of Rodgers’ 2020 and 2021 Packers.

How the Jets Stack Up

The combination of an Aaron Rodgers-led offense with one of the best defenses in the leagues has led to the Jets having +900 odds to be the AFC Champions on the NFL conference betting odds market -- the fourth-highest in the conference. The biggest problem the team faces could honestly be that the Buffalo Bills, from their own division, are even bigger favorites (+450) to take home the AFC Championship and lead the Jets (+250) to take down the AFC East at +130. Rodgers will most likely need to beat the Bills and quarterback Josh Allen during the regular season to take home his fifth MVP award.

The Jets were surprisingly able to snatch a win off of the Bills last season despite their abysmal quarterback play. They even kept their second matchup close, limiting Allen’s Bills to just 20 points in Week 14. The team was already close to a playoff berth last season and has a realistic chance of toppling the Bills for the AFC East title with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.

The Jets finished last in the AFC East in 2022 with a 7-10 record but have a legitimate chance to win their division just a year later because of the addition of Rodgers. Taking his team from last to first place in their division would be a serious feather in Rodgers’ cap when it comes time for AP voters to make their decision.

Rodgers' 2023 Outlook

Rodgers’ +1600 odds to win the MVP award this season rank seventh-best heading into the 2022 season, and that could be too long of a discount for a player just one season removed from back-to-back titles. He plays the kind of efficient, turnover-free football that the AP’s voters love and is joining one of the strongest overall rosters in the league. He has the worst-to-first narrative in his corner and a chip on his shoulder.

Regardless of his down year in 2022, Rodgers should likely be one of the favorites to win the AP NFL MVP in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.