NFC Championship Game Betting Picks: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

Championship Sunday is only days away, and the NFC title game provides us with an exciting matchup between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers.

It should be of no shock that San Fran is appearing in their third straight NFC Championship game. This Niners team has long been considered a Super Bowl contender, and they enter this weekend with +140 odds (shortest) to win the Big Game, per the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Detroit has been solid all year, but this franchise -- and this Lions team against these Niners -- is the definition of underdogs.

Can the Lions punch a ticket to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history, or will the Niners prove the market right?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: Spread, Moneyline, and Total

Spread: 49ers -7.0 (-110)

Moneyline:

• 49ers: -330
• Lions: +265

Total: 50.5

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers: Best Bet

Lions +7.0 (-110)

This is a tough call, but I have faith in Jared Goff and the Lions to stay within striking distance in this game.

We've seen a bit of movement with this line; FanDuel Sportsbook opened with the Lions as 6.5-point road dogs. We're now getting Detroit at +7.0, and I think a better case can be made for them to cover 7.0 points as opposed to the Niners.

The Lions have a great run defense. By numberFire's metrics, they come in with the eighth-best schedule-adjusted rush D in the league, which is a higher rank than any team that remains in Super Bowl contention. They allowed 3.8 yards per rush attempt this season (fifth-fewest) and 3.5 yards per rush attempt on the road (third-fewest). We can find even more encouragement from their road numbers -- they let up the fewest rushing first downs per game (4.7) when playing away from their home stadium this season.

They'll be going up against the running back of all running backs, Christian McCaffrey, but history shows us that the Lions are up for the challenge. In the Wild Card Round, Detroit limited Kyren Williams to just 4.7 yards per rush attempt for a total of 61 rushing yards. Williams not only led the league in rush yards per game this season, but he also touted the most in Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP). Detroit was able to limit a player as explosive as Williams, so we can't rule out the possibility of a limited CMC this weekend.

Detroit's pass defense isn't much to write home about. They have the sixth-worst schedule-adjusted pass D -- per numberFire -- and generated the fourth-lowest sack percentage this season. But Deebo Samuel's status (shoulder) doesn't look particularly promising, and things haven't turned out great for Brock Purdy when Samuel isn't an option.

Samuel missed two games earlier this season, which resulted in a pair of San Francisco losses. Purdy threw more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (2) in those two games and struggled with an 87.8 passer rating (he's averaging a 115.0 passer rating this season).

But there is a pretty significant stipulation here -- left-tackle Trent Williams was hurt for both of the aforementioned Deebo-less games. While the Samuel-less data may seem strong, we can't ignore that Williams' absence likely played a major role in Purdy's struggles, too. But notwithstanding the public's overreaction, San Fran going into this one without Samuel would be a big blow.

Let's turn to what Goff and company have been up to on offense. The Lions have had fairly smooth defensive matchups thus far in the playoffs, so the Niners will present a higher level of challenge for them. But Goff has the second-best Passing NEP per drop back among qualified QBs, and when you combine Goff's play with offensive threats such as Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, the Lions should be a hard team to silence.

Plus, Jahmyr Gibbs has been incredible in his rookie season and has shown no signs of slowing down. Among running backs who logged at least 110 carries this season, he ranked third in yards per rush attempt. Gibbs is a threat in the run and pass game and exploded for 114 total yards in the Divisional Round. Add in David Montgomery, who rounds out this lethal one-two running back punch, and Detroit's offense may be able to keep up this Sunday.

The Lions have lost just two games by a margin of seven-plus points this season. The Niners barely escaped the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, though Samuel's early exit threw the offense into a frenzy. We should expect San Francisco to be preparing a better game plan for this weekend in the event Samuel can't go, but I think Detroit's rock-solid rush D and Goff's ability to run an efficient offense should keep the Lions within seven points.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.