NCAA Tournament Betting: Can Alabama Upset UConn?

Very few things on the sports calendar can match the excitement and unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament. So why not add betting to the mix via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The 2024 edition of the big dance is approaching the Final Four, and here at FanDuel Research, we'll have you covered with a betting guide for each game.

With the action moving to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ, we have reached the beginning of the end. This weekend, the Final Four will commence. In the later of the two men's games, we'll see reigning-national champion UConn taking on No. 4 Alabama.

Connecticut reached the Final Four by trouncing No. 3 Illinois to win the East Region. As for 'Bama, the Tide washed over over a stellar Clemson team in the Elite Eight to win the West.

All signs point to a thrilling contest in the desert. Early in the week (Tuesday), FanDuel Sportsbook has the almighty Huskies listed as 11.5-point favorites for Saturday's clash with the Tide.

All college basketball odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook, and lines may change after this article is published
Updated April 4, 2024 at 7:45 p.m. ET

NCAA Tournament Betting Picks

UConn vs. Alabama Betting Odds

Date and Time: Saturday, April 6th at 8:49 p.m. ET

Spread: Connecticut -11.5 (-114)

Total: 161.5 (-110/-110)

Moneyline:

• Alabama: +570
• Connecticut: -850

UConn vs. Alabama Statistical Breakdown

Advanced stats from KenPom, Bart Torvik and numberFire.

UConn

• numberFire Ranking: 1st
• Bart Torvik Ranking: 1st
• KenPom Ranking: 1st
  • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 4th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 1st
  • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 315th

Alabama

• numberFire Ranking: 10th
• Bart Torvik Ranking: 14th
• KenPom Ranking: 12th
  • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 104th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 3rd
  • Adjusted Tempo Ranking: 9th

UConn vs. Alabama Best Bet

Connecticut -11.5 (-114)

I apologize if it is a boring play, but oftentimes, making money is exactly that: slow, consistent and boring.

It is extremely difficult to bet against UConn at this current moment. At 18-2 in conference, the reigning national champs won a very talented Big East grouping this past year. From there, the Huskies have flat-out dominated at the Big Dance.

As the NCAA tournament's top overall seed, Connecticut defeated Stetson, Northwestern, San Diego State and Illinois with a 27.75 PPG average winning margin. Simply, head coach Dan Hurley's Huskies are ballin'. This group from Storrs, CT has been particularly stifling on defense, not allowing more than 58 points to any tourney opponent in 2024.

This Final Four romp will make for a clash of styles, as the Crimson Tide can certainly score the rock. Through 36 games, Alabama has produced a staggering 90.6 PPG, which is the top clip in men's college hoops. Head coach Nate Oats likes to run and gun, and the Tide's 37.1% three-point shooting certainly complements their success.

Interestingly, these respective programs are currently on opposite ends of KenPom's adjusted tempo rankings. UConn plays slow and steady, showing up 315th (13th percentile) in the aforementioned poll. Across the court, Bama's high-speed approach has them ranked 9th (97th percentile) in adjusted tempo.

Considering Connecticut's overwhelming length and prior postseason experience, I am on the chalk against the spread (11.5). The set number will also be one to monitor, as incoming action will likely deviate this line before the weekend arrives.

I respect the Tide's offensive prowess, but I believe they have reached the end of the line versus the champs. The Huskies have held opponents to 30.9% shooting from three-point distance, and I expect that aspect to play a major factor in slowing down Alabama.

UConn vs. Alabama Prop Bet

Grant Nelson To Record 6+ Rebounds (-150)

As an intriguing prop bet, I believe Alabama senior forward Grant Nelson is in advantageous positioning to bring down six or more rebounds at -150 odds.

Nelson's program height has him listed at 6-foot-10, which towers above most players he will share the floor with at this level. On the court, Nelson has showcased 5.6 RPG in 2024. Through his entire collegiate career, that rebounding rate is slightly higher at 5.9 RPG.

At the Final Four in Arizona, can we count on Nelson for at least six boards? This is a feat he has accomplished in four of his past seven appearances, which includes gritty performances in the Sweet 16 (12 rebounds) and Elite Eight (7 rebounds).

The Crimson Tide are a top-20 rebounding program in the country, collecting 39.9 RPG. That is also one aspect where they rank higher than Connecticut (39.0 RPG). With that in mind, I am willing to wager at a slightly juiced priced that Nelson grabs a minimum of six boards this Saturday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.