NBA Playoffs Best Bets Today: Expert Picks, Predictions and Odds for Saturday 4/18/26

Top NBA Picks at a Glance

• Cavaliers -8.0
• Nuggets -6.0
• Hawks +5.5
• Rockets -5.0

The NBA postseason offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. Our NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

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NBA Picks and Best Bets for Today's Playoff Games

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers -- Cavaliers -8.0

Game 1 | 1:00 p.m. ET | Amazon Prime Video

The afternoon opener features the matchup that many in Toronto have been circling since late February. The Toronto Raptors did something almost no team managed this season: they swept the Cleveland Cavaliers in the regular season, winning all three meetings by double digits. The problem is that all three of those wins came before February 7, the day James Harden first suited up in a Cavaliers uniform. Donovan Mitchell also missed one of those three matchups. This is effectively a brand-new series for Toronto, and the Cavaliers know it.

Since Harden joined the fold, Cleveland has been a different beast. Mitchell is averaging 27.9 points per game on 48.3% shooting, with Harden providing the elite playmaking and pace manipulation that pushes Cleveland's offense into another tier. Evan Mobley anchors one of the league's better defensive fronts, and the Cavaliers' 119.5 points per game since the Harden addition has made them one of the East's most difficult teams to contain. Add Jarrett Allen cleaning glass and generating easy looks on roll opportunities, and the Raptors face a multi-layered problem they have never had to solve in this form.

Toronto's case rests on three pillars: Scottie Barnes as a versatile defensive option on Mitchell, Brandon Ingram as a reliable scoring threat at 21.5 points per game, and their transition-first identity that runs at the fastest pace in the entire NBA. The Raptors ranked last in pull-up three-point attempts per game all season (4.9), which matters when they're going against a Cleveland team that is seventh in that category at 11.8. If Cleveland forces this into a half-court fight, the Raptors may lose the stylistic battle they need to have any chance.

There are also real injury concerns to manage. Immanuel Quickley left the season finale with hamstring tightness. If Quickley is limited or unavailable, Toronto loses a primary ball-handler and its best on-ball defender against Harden. RJ Barrett has also been managing right knee soreness. On Cleveland's side, Thomas Bryant (calf) and a handful of rotation players are banged up but expected to play through it.

The Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers -8. The Raptors' regular-season sweep was a mirage built on a roster that no longer exists in its pre-Harden form. Mitchell and Harden as a two-man operating unit is something Toronto has never defended in a playoff setting, and the Cavaliers are at full capacity (mostly) on home floor. Cleveland's 119.5 scoring average since Harden's arrival may too much firepower for a Raptors team dealing with injury uncertainty at the point guard position.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets -- Nuggets -6.0

Game 1 | 3:30 p.m. ET | Amazon Prime Video

If you like watching the best player on the floor and the most dominant individual performer in the league go to work, this is your series.

Nikola Jokic closed the regular season averaging 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists per night — the only player in NBA history to lead the league in both assists and rebounds per game in a single season. Against the Minnesota Timberwolves this year, Jokic has been nothing short of supernatural, averaging north of 36 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists across two of the four regular season matchups. The Denver Nuggets won the season series 3-1 and arrives having won 12 straight games heading into the postseason — the fourth-longest winning streak entering the playoffs in NBA history.

On the other side stands Anthony Edwards, who is listed as available despite missing 11 of Minnesota's final 14 regular-season games with right knee issues. His coach confirmed he practiced fully, but no one should forget he was managing that injury through the late stretch of the year. In two of his three matchups against Denver, Edwards still poured in 26+ points — including a 44-point Christmas Day eruption. He remains one of the few players in basketball who can single-handedly manufacture points against an elite defense through. The health of his knee is a huge factor in this series.

Also for the T-Wolves, Julius Randle provides a physical interior option, and Rudy Gobert remains the most effective interior anchor in the series for slowing down Denver's paint production.

Christian Braun and Jamal Murray are both listed as questionable with shoulder and ankle issues respectively on Denver's side, but neither is expected to miss the opener.

Denver's offense is elite. They led the NBA in offensive rating over their final 10 games at 128, with an exceptional 59.9% effective field goal percentage. Their turnover rate of 11.6% was among the best in the league over that stretch. This is a team that gets to its spots, executes the Murray-Jokic two-man game at an elite level, and wins with a combination of controlled aggression and elite decision-making.

The Pick: Denver Nuggets -6. The Wolves are coming in with a star who has been managing a knee injury and a depleted bench, while going up against the best big man on the planet at full strength on his home floor. Denver's 12-game winning streak isn't empty resume padding — it included wins over Oklahoma City and San Antonio, the two best teams in the conference.

Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks — Hawks +5.5

Game 1 | 6:00 p.m. ET | Amazon Prime Video

To me, this is the most fascinating and genuinely unpredictable matchup of Saturday's four-game slate.

The New York Knicks are a well-regarded playoff commodity — four consecutive postseason appearances, three straight trips to at least the conference semifinals under multiple coaches, and a roster built around Jalen Brunson, who averaged 26 points per game this season, and Karl-Anthony Towns, who generated a league-leading 56 double-doubles. At Madison Square Garden, New York is a proven entity. They know how to impose their identity on a playoff game, and coach Mike Brown enters with a 6-1 first-round series record in his career.

But the Atlanta Hawks are not the team they were even six weeks ago. After trading Trae Young to Washington, the Hawks went from a 15-18 record to a 46-36 finish — posting the third-best record in the league between February 22 and the end of the season (31-18). Jalen Johnson has evolved into a nightly triple-double threat at 6-foot-9, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker's emergence as a 20.8-point-per-game scorer — more than double his production from last season — is legitimate and not going away. CJ McCollum provides playoff-tested secondary creation, and Dyson Daniels is arguably the best perimeter defender in this series at either end.

This series is genuinely compelling. New York won the season series 2-1, but Atlanta had a positive point differential of plus-6 across those three games. The road team won every single one of those regular-season meetings. The Knicks are also carrying injury concerns, with OG Anunoby (ankle) listed as questionable after missing the regular-season finale, and multiple other rotation players managed through the end of the season. Without Anunoby at full capacity, the defensive identity Mike Brown has built around length and switching could become vulnerable at key positions.

Atlanta's offensive pace — third in the league in fastbreak points — can be a stylistic problem for a Knicks team that defends better in the half-court than in transition.

The Pick: Atlanta Hawks +5.5. Atlanta's late-season hot streak is exceptional, and this roster can match up against New York's strengths. The Hawks went 21-19 ATS as an underdog during the regular season. As mentioned. the road team won all three regular-season matchups between these teams. Daniels creates problems for Brunson that few defenders in the league can. Johnson and Alexander-Walker give Atlanta versatile scoring that does not rely on a single dominant player. The Knicks' interior depth advantage and their playoff history gives them the edge in a full series, but I'm backing the Hawks to keep Game 1 close.

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers — Rockets -5.0

Game 1 | 8:30 p.m. ET | ABC

Everything about this matchup leads back to one word: injuries.

The Los Angeles Lakers enter missing their two best non-LeBron players. Luka Doncic is out with a grade-2 hamstring strain, with a typical return timeline of four or more weeks from the original injury — effectively ruling him out of the first round entirely. Austin Reaves has a grade-2 oblique strain with a 4-to-6 week projected timeline, per Shams Charania, putting him out until at least the first week of May. Together, these two players averaged 56.8 combined points per game this season. They handled a dominant percentage of Los Angeles's half-court creation. Without them, it will likely be LeBron James, Rui Hachimura, Luke Kennard, Deandre Ayton, and Marcus Smart running LA's offense against a Houston Rockets defense that finished in the top five for the second straight year.

LeBron is not a non-factor here — far from it. He closed the regular season earning Western Conference Player of the Week honors, averaging 24.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 9.7 assists over his final stretch, and his 22-8 record in clutch games this season shows he still knows how to orchestrate late-game situations. But there is a real limit to what one player — especially at age 41 — can do against a team as deep and athletically imposing as Houston.

The Rockets have Kevin Durant, who leads their offense at a level they could not have anticipated when they made the trade last offseason. They have Alperen Sengun in the paint, and they have Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr. as versatile wing defenders who can guard LeBron with fresh legs in rotation.

Houston also did something impressive to close the season: they won eight of their final nine games to secure the No. 5 seed and arrive at this series on one of the best momentum runs in the Western Conference. Durant averaged nearly 27 points per game this year and provides the kind of reliable late-clock creation that gives Houston a closing ace at all times. The regular season series was split 2-2, but those two Lakers wins came with Doncic operating at an unconscious level in March — 76 combined points in two wins. That version of this Lakers team does not exist right now.

The Pick: Houston Rockets -5.0. This is not a bet against LeBron James. It is a bet that one historically great player at age 41 cannot overcome the loss of 56.8 combined points per game from his co-stars against a top-five defense. Houston's rebounding advantage — the premier offensive glass team in the NBA at 53.5% total rebound percentage — is going to be a real issue for LA. The Rockets are the side I want to be on.

What are today's best NBA prop bets?

NBA Betting -- Frequently Asked Questions

What does the point spread mean in NBA betting?

The point spread is a margin set by oddsmakers to level the playing field between two unevenly matched teams. For example, if the Golden State Warriors are listed at -7.5, they need to win by 8 or more points for a bet on them to cash. Conversely, a bet on their opponent at +7.5 wins if that team loses by 7 or fewer points — or wins outright.

What is the moneyline?

The moneyline is a straight-up bet on which team wins the game, with no spread involved. Favorites carry a negative number (e.g., -200, meaning you must risk $200 to win $100), while underdogs carry a positive number (e.g., +170, meaning a $100 bet returns $170 profit).

How does the over/under (game total) work?

Oddsmakers set a projected combined score for the game, and bettors wager on whether the actual total will go over or under that number. For instance, if the total is set at 224.5 points, an over bet wins if both teams combine for 225 or more points. NBA totals can swing based on pace of play, rest situations, and injuries, so it's worth tracking those factors before placing a total bet.

What are NBA player props?

Player props are bets tied to an individual player's statistical performance rather than the game's outcome. Common prop bet markets include points scored, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and combinations of those stats.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.