NBA Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 2/4/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to winning big.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Best Bets

Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons

Pistons +7 (-110)
Markelle Fultz Over 18.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-111)

The Detroit Pistons' 6-42 start is etched into their season history at this stage, but they're not that bad anymore.

Over their last 15 games, Detroit's -6.2 net rating is just fourth-worst in the NBA. It's no longer the extreme outlier it was -- a trend that's allowed them to cover the spread in four of their last five games.

At this stage, the Orlando Magic might create spread value from being a tad overrated themselves. Their -1.7 net rating in the same stretch isn't special whatsoever.

numberFire's model expects the Pistons to cover the spread 52.9% of the time, so it sees a bit of value. I'll continue to ride the Pistons' surprisingly hot hand.

In a closer game, Orlando's starting point guard, Markelle Fultz, might not be respected by oddsmakers to produce here. After all, Detroit has allowed the 2nd-most points, 10th-most rebounds, and most assists per game to point guards in this same 15-game stretch.

The player projections at nF are expecting Fultz to record 12.4 points, 5.0 assists, and 3.8 rebounds in 28.0 minutes tonight. Showing value in each prop category, I'll take the combo.

Los Angeles Clippers at Miami Heat

Under 225.0 (-112)

These teams just shouldn't have a total encroaching 230 points, but today's marquee, national TV game is likely seeing an influx of over bettors.

Both the Los Angeles Clippers and Miami Heat are willing to bog the pace down considerably. Over their respective last 15 games, Miami is dead last in pace, and the Clips' sixth-slowest pace isn't exactly the Mike D'Antoni Phoenix Suns.

Of course, both of these winning organizations play defense, as well. They're 12th and 13th, respectively, in defensive rating during this same period. Notably, the Heat offense (108.9 rating) has been absolute abysmal in this most recent stretch.

The elite offense here also has a chance to be fighting the notorious "South Beach Flu", and that'll only help our cause here. numberFire is expecting just 215.2 median points in this game, expecting the under to cash 66.1% of the time. This is the side of the total to bet.

Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics

Jaylen Brown to Score 20+ Points (+100)

If you like a bit of risk on a prop showing clear value, this is your number.

There's always risk targeting any of the Boston Celtics' legendary starting five. Your player could contribute nothing while the C's win by 50. Not to be ignored, that's significantly more likely with an 18-point spread in this game as they host the Memphis Grizzlies.

Memphis has a puncher's chance even if I'm not betting them. nF expects them to cover 70.8% of the time, and Boston is just 13-12 against the spread (ATS) at home. This wouldn't be their first letdown on a huge number.

With that the case, numberFire's projections have Brown pegged at 22.3 points in this one, so 20 seem extremely attainable . Potentially shaking off an eight-point clunker, Brown's usage rate in the last 15 games (26.8%) is still beefy, and though this positional matchup is to be determined with all of Memphis' injuries, Jonathan Kuminga's 29 points on Friday are a decent sign you can score from the wing on them.

I love buying low after tough shooting games. They don't come much tougher relative to talent than J.B.'s 4-for-12 effort on Thursday.

Toronto Raptors at Oklahoma City Thunder

Luguentz Dort Over 15.5 Points and Rebounds (-118)

The Oklahoma City Thunder are missing Jalen Williams on Sunday due to an ankle injury, which should allow for another heavy night of work for Luguentz Dort.

Dort logged 36 minutes in OKC's first game without JDub on Wednesday but shot 3-for-11 from the field. He was held to 19 minutes on Friday in a game the Thunder were leading by 31 points at halftime. As a result, he hasn't had a chance to put solid production together in this role, but it's coming.

On a per-36-minute basis, Dort averages 13.3 points and 4.9 rebounds. This is an especially friendly matchup for him, too. Over their last 15 games, the Toronto Raptors have allowed the second-most points and fifth-most rebounds to opposing small forwards.

numberFire has Dort currently projected for 15.5 points and 4.9 rebounds in 33.9 minutes on Sunday. It goes without saying that this line suppressed due to the odd circumstances in his latest two starts.

Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz

Over 246.5 (-110)

This is a great type of game to look for props if you'd like to take advantage of today's 30% Same Game Parlay Boost on FanDuel, but most props aren't quite available yet. There's definitely uncertainty surrounding Giannis Antetokounmpo's status that has most key ones off the board.

The Milwaukee Bucks played yesterday in Dallas, but the Utah Jazz have been on ice -- literally and figuratively -- since Thursday's home loss. Antetokounmpo's presence is fairly negligible to the total for me. If he plays, the Deer offense will be humming. If he doesn't, it'll allow Utah to keep pace without a multiple-time DPOY finalist in the fold.

Nonetheless, these teams profile for a total shootout. In their respective last 15 games, Milwaukee is third in the NBA in pace, and Utah is fourth. The Jazz have the fourth-best offensive rating in this time with the Bucks not too far behind in ninth. Plus -- you guessed it -- on defense, neither team is special with 7th-worst and 12th-worst defensive ratings, respectively, in this period.

Add in some tired legs for the more accomplished side, and this game could look a lot like Thursday's 251-point barnburner the Jazz played against the Philadelphia 76ers. I'm siding with the over but will give a bit of time to see where the line may move. By then, we could also have props on the board and showing value in numberFire's projections, too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.