NFL
Projections
NBA
MLB
NHL
FanDuel Promos
NASCAR
Horse Racing
Golf
NCAAF
Soccer
UFC
Boxing
Tennis
NCAAB
CasinoNASCAR Xfinity Series Win Simulations: Pennzoil 150 at the Brickyard
On Saturday, a great NASCAR Xfinity Series rivalry resumes.
From 2021 to 2022, the circuit ran 13 races on road courses. A.J. Allmendinger and Ty Gibbs combined for nine wins and five runner-ups in that time.
Both are in the field for Saturday's Pennzoil 150 at the Brickyard, meaning if you want to claim victory, you have to beat the best of the best.
That's no small task. As a result, my model's simulations of this week's race have only one driver whose win odds are at least one percentage point higher than his implied odds based on FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR Xfinity Series odds for Indianapolis.
That driver is the guy who has dominated the series so far this year.
Driver | Win Sims | Podium | Top 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Allmendinger | 25.2% | 73.1% | 83.3% |
| Ty Gibbs | 12.7% | 52.7% | 76.9% |
| Justin Allgaier | 8.3% | 28.4% | 51.9% |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 6.9% | 20.2% | 38.6% |
| Cole Custer | 6.5% | 16.8% | 31.5% |
| Austin Hill | 5.7% | 15.3% | 30.2% |
| Parker Kligerman | 5.1% | 13.2% | 25.1% |
John Hunter Nemechek is +1800 to win at FanDuel, putting his implied odds at 5.3%. I've got him at 6.9%, which is a pretty decent gap.
I understand the skepticism. His lone road-course win at any of NASCAR's top three levels came in the Craftsman Truck Series at Bowmanville in 2016. That was a long time ago -- but it was also just Nemechek's age-19 season.
Since then, Nemechek has been more fine than hideous on road courses. His lone finish better than 10th this year came in the rain-shortened Chicago street course, a race where they ran less than half the laps.
But Nemechek's speed has been better than that. He has had a top-nine average running position in each race except for Road America, where he had an issue early. Current form translates to all circuits, and Nemechek leads the series with five wins for a reason.
Ideally, we'd bet Nemechek in a market where he doesn't need to top Dinger and Gibbs to cash the ticket. But with just outrights posted here, and the presence of those two accounted for, I don't think it's a terrible idea to consider betting on his dominance to finally translate to another track type.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.