March Madness Bracket Advice: 4 Tips for a Successful NCAA Tournament Bracket

The NCAA Tournament has arrived, and this week is one of the best weeks on the sports calendar.

Which sleeper teams should be on your radar for this year's Big Dance?

Let's dive in and take a look at three dark horse teams who have a chance to bust brackets and get to the Sweet 16 this season.

All March Madness odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and may change after this article is published. Stats come from Bart Torvik and KenPom.

March Madness Bracket Help, Advice

Know Your Pool Size and Settings

This may sound simple -- and it is -- but it's imperative to know the details of your pool.

Is it a small office pool with 10 other people in it or is it a large pool with 10,000 other brackets?

If it's a smaller pool, it's not that bad to swallow chalk and pick favorites, so go ahead and select Duke to win the title if you want. But if it's a large pool, it behooves you to get a little weird because it's going to take an outlier performance to win the pool. In a pool of, say, 50 or more people, there's a lot of incentive to not pick Duke to win it all -- even if you think they will -- because (in all likelihood) a lot of others in the pool will also pick Duke to cut down the nets, and you want to zig a bit while the masses zag.

Duke's title odds are +370 (as of Monday morning). That implies a probability of just 21.3%. So, while Duke is amazing and is one of the best teams in recent college basketball history -- per KenPom's advanced metrics -- there's still close to only a one-in-five chance that they actually win it all, according to the betting odds.

Along with knowing the size of your pool, know what type of scoring system you're using. Are all picks in every round weighted the same, so you get one point for a correct first-round pick and also one point for a correct Elite 8 pick? Or is it set up so later-round picks are worth more? Some scoring settings reward significantly more points for getting later-round picks right, so if that's how your pool works, you don't want to go too off the grid with who you have in the Final Four.

Speaking of that...

Upsets Are Fun But Don't Get Too Wild

One of the fun parts of filling out a bracket is nailing an upset pick. Last year, it would've been fun to be able to tell your friends and/or co-workers, "Hey, I picked Arkansas to beat St. John's!" after the 10 seed Razorbacks knocked off the 2 seed Red Storm.

Definitely pick some upsets, especially in the first or second round, but don't get carried away.

The cream usually rises as the tourney progresses. For example, in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, every 1 or 2 seed except one (the aforementioned Red Storm) got to the Elite 8. The lone non 1 or 2 seed in the Elite 8 ended up being a 3 seed (Tennessee).

Now, the tourney isn't always that chalky, but it stands true that it's better to get just a little weird with your bracket than to go overboard picking upsets.

Utilize the Numbers -- Both Betting Odds and Analytics

There are a lot of numbers in sports these days, and it can all seem a bit much to more casual sports fans. If you want to just blitz through filling out your bracket, I get it. Then again, if you really felt that way, you wouldn't be reading this article, so you must be inclined to give a little bit of effort.

The numbers can be your friend.

KenPom, which was referenced earlier, does all the number-crunching work for you and spits out the results. There are a lot of numbers on the linked KenPom page, but if you want to keep it simple, focus on just the ranking on the left.

By looking at that, you can see that 2 seed UConn rates out as roughly an equal team to 5 seed Vanderbilt and that 6 seed North Carolina rates out much worse than the other 6 seeds. Maybe that's enough info for you to pick VCU -- one of my favorite Cinderella teams this year -- to upset North Carolina in the first round or to have UConn go out early.

Betting lines are another tool that can be helpful. FanDuel has March Madness odds for every first-round game as well as odds for each team to reach each round of the Big Dance. Using the spread lines, you can see that 7 seed UCLA is a 5.5-point favorite over 10 seed Central Florida despite the two teams being close in seed, so that could help shape your pick for that game.

Have Fun With It

This is the most important tip of all.

Sports are fun. Filling out the bracket is fun. Just have a blast with all of it.

If you want to pick 11 seed South Florida to go to the Final Four because you like their school colors, go for it. If you want to pick Michigan to lose in the second round because you're a Michigan State fan, do it.

The NCAA Tournament is one of the best sporting events in the world, and filling out a bracket is a fun way to be a part of it.

Cheer for buzzer shots. Cheer for your favorite team. Cheer for your bracket. Enjoy it all.

Which March Madness odds stand out to you this year? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.