George Kittle Is a Worry-Free Pick in Fantasy Football

George Kittle is one of the most trusted weapons in the San Francisco 49ers' offense, and when you survey the current cast of characters in the Bay Area, that is certainly a high accolade.

In 2022, Kittle reminded the league that he is definitively in the top tier of tight ends. He scored 11 touchdowns throughout the regular season, a year which ended with his third career NFL All-Pro selection.

From a fantasy football perspective, Kittle has ranked among the top-four tight ends in four of his six seasons at the NFL level. Last year, he finished as the TE2 for the second time (along with 2018) -- Travis Kelce edged him out both years, of course.

Regardless of who ends up taking the snaps under center for San Francisco, Kittle will continue to be an offensive wrecking ball. Here is what you can expect from him in the upcoming season.

George Kittle Fantasy Football Projection

(All projections via numberFire.)

Fantasy Points: 113.0 (170.5 in 2022)
Ranking: TE4
Stats:

• 69 receptions on 103 targets (67.0% catch rate)
• 817 receiving yards
• 5.4 touchdown catches
• Total floor-ceiling: 90.52-135.48

George Kittle Fantasy Football Outlook

As mentioned, Kittle's play in only 15 contests last year (170.5 total FanDuel points) was good enough to be the second-best fantasy tight end (and 23rd overall player) after Kelce.

With Kittle looking to stay healthy for an entire NFL campaign -- something he has done only once -- which direction will he trend in his seventh season out of Iowa?

Kittle Is a YAC Monster

It is no secret that Kittle enjoys a physical brand of football.

Not only is Kittle a beast as a run-blocker, but he regularly runs through arm tackles of opposing defenders. Since entering the league, the burley tight end has produced 2,907 total yards after the catch (YAC) -- that gives him a yearly YAC average of 485 yards.

YAC is a fantastic attribute in both on-field and fantasy football production, but it is still second to touchdowns. In 2022, Kittle found the end zone 11 times. However, numberFire's model projects a dip in that figure (5.4 touchdowns) for 2023. Some regression is likely as Kittle had never recorded more than six touchdowns in a season prior to the last campaign.

Regardless, Kittle has quality hands, speed, athleticism and size for NFL success.

Kittle's quarterback situation is up in the air as of now. Brock Purdy shined in nine starts for the 49ers last year, driving the team to an average of 29.8 points per game over eight wins. But Purdy is recovering from UCL surgery and only recently started throwing the football again at the end of June. At the moment, it's no lock that Purdy will be good to go for Week 1.

Of course, the 49ers still have Trey Lance and Sam Darnold on the roster, both of whom may feature short-scheme passes to Kittle to get their feet wet if called upon. Kittle has caught 20 balls for 273 yards and a touchdown in five prior games with Lance. He was super productive alongside Purdy, amassing 34 grabs for 479 yards and 7 scores.

Opportunity Cost: Where Is Kittle Being Drafted?

Per FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP) data, Kittle's ADP is 55.0 -- tied with quarterback Trevor Lawrence and halfback Miles Sanders -- and he's ranked as the TE4.

Kittle will certainly be among the first few tight ends taken in most fantasy drafts, but Kelce (5.0 ADP) is the only player at the position projected to be selected with the top playmakers in football.

After Kelce, tight ends Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson are also being selected ahead of Kittle, but both of those two are going outside the top 30 picks.

If you are considering Kittle for your lineup, your warning signal to select him is when Andrews goes. However, don't be surprised if Kittle -- who has a tad more big-play capability -- goes before Andrews.

Final Verdict

Kittle likely won't reach his career-best 11 touchdowns again, but he still can be a productive TE1 in any lineup. His burst and explosiveness contribute to his prowess in the YAC category.

With big-play ability, Kittle is always a candidate to boom in any week, and he has rare single-game upside for the position. Over the past three seasons, he has yielded more than 20.0 FanDuel points in a single game seven different times. His personal-best single-game output is a 35.1-point performance in Week 13 of 2021 against the Seattle Seahawks. In that one, he hauled in 9 passes for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns.

All in all, Kittle looks like a solid pick at a reasonable ADP, and the Niners' tight end may be able to out-produce his ADP if Purdy can replicate what we saw from him in 2022.

You can feel confident about loading up on other positions early in your draft and nabbing Kittle around his fifth-round ADP.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.