Fantasy Football: Will David Montgomery Repeat His 2023 Output?

David Montgomery's first season with the Detroit Lions went about as well as you could hope for with the veteran running back racking up 1,015 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. This was his highest rushing total since 2020 and a career-high in rushing TDs.

This also meant terrific fantasy football value for Montgomery, who finished as RB13 compared to his RB30 average draft position (ADP) in half-PPR leagues via FantasyPros.

His ADP has adjusted to RB20 for the upcoming season. Can Montgomery still maintain great fantasy value even with his jump in ADP compared to 2023?

Jahmyr Gibbs is the clear roadblock as the second-year back has a RB5 ADP ahead of 2024. Montgomery totaled 37 more carries than Gibbs last season and finished with 1 more overall touch.

Many fantasy managers are questioning if Montgomery can carry over his 2023 output to the upcoming season considering Gibbs' upward trajectory. Let's dig into the numbers.

David Montgomery Fantasy Football Outlook

Montgomery Wins the Goal-Line Battle

Despite a career-high in touchdowns, Montgomery still finished behind Gibbs (RB10) in fantasy rankings. This is mainly due to Gibbs' receiving work, for he tallied 52 receptions on 71 targets compared to Montgomery's 16 catches on 24 targets. Gibbs finished with a 13.9% target share compared to Montgomery's 5.5%.

The usage didn't carry over to the ground game, though, especially in the red zone. The rookie tailback had a 37.8% red zone rushing attempt share versus the vet's 55.3%, and Montgomery took 58.6% of the carries within the five-yard line versus Gibbs at 27.6%.

Dominating the carries in short-yardage situations on the goal line was Montgomery's main advantage over Gibbs. When you consider Montgomery's efficiency within the 10, it's no wonder he reached a career-high touchdown mark.

He scored 11 touchdowns on 31 attempts within the 10-yard line; that's a scoring rate of 35.5%. Gibbs, on the other hand, scampered into the end zone on 5 of 21 attempts within the 10 (23.8%).

Keeping the majority of the work around the goal line could be Montgomery's biggest supporting point for taking his production to 2024, especially when the Lions scored the fifth-most points per game (PPG) last year.

Will Gibbs Eat Up All Touches in Sight?

The usage for Gibbs in 2024 is where this gets difficult. We really don't know how the usage will swing until the season kicks off. All we can do is look at the numbers and then conclude if 2024 will provide significant changes.

We've went over Gibbs as a receiver, and that work should continue as the talented back is learning how to play out wide this offseason. This could suggest Gibbs has even more targets ahead after finishing 10th in routes run among running backs in 2023, per PlayerProfiler.

Alongside the receiving, Gibbs is a threat to take some of Montgomery's work on the ground.

Gibbs produced 0.85 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) and 2.4 rushing yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery totaled 0.49 RYOE/C and 2.1 yards after contact per carry.

Gibbs is just as good -- and perhaps even better -- as Montgomery when rushing. The yards per carry also check out with Gibbs averaging 5.2 to Montgomery's 4.6 last season. When Montgomery was absent due to injury in 2023, Gibbs took advantage of more work with some of his best numbers, including a career-high 152 rushing yards in Week 8.

Montgomery had a leg up on the goal line last season, but Gibbs even held his weight in this category. While he totaled only 8 attempts within the five-yard line compared Montgomery's 17 chances, Gibbs had a higher scoring rate. He would score on 5 of 8 carries (62.5%) while Montgomery did so on 9 of 17 (52.9%). This is yet another notch in Gibbs' favor.

We've layered the praise on Gibbs, but let's not act like Montgomery is a shell of his former self. He finished with the 6th-most expected points added (EPA) among his position in 2023 while Gibbs ranked 24th.

Additionally, Montgomery finished as the Lions' top-graded running back, per Pro Football Focus (PFF); he recorded a 79.6 grade (12th-best) to Gibbs' 76.3 (20th).

While Gibbs possesses a special skillset and is enticing for 2024, let's not discredit Montgomery. He comes off one of the best seasons of his career and still holds good fantasy upside. Let's look at the projections to prove it.

David Montgomery Fantasy Football Projection

This isn't rocket science. Detroit is projected as one of numberFire's best offenses for 2024 in the schedule-adjusted power rankings (second-best), and they attempted the eighth-most rushing attempts per game in football last season. An elite offensive line -- ranked as the league's top unit via PFF -- is the cherry on top.

Of course, managers want a running back from this offense. We saw the offense provide two quality running backs in fantasy last season, and I believe we are gearing up for more of the same.

According to numberFire's fantasy football projections, Montgomery is forecasted for 188 rushing attempts, 835 rushing yards, 22 receptions, and 12 total touchdowns, putting him at RB21. Projections are pointing to an increased workload for Gibbs with 244 carries, 1,078 rushing yards, 61 receptions, 434 receiving yards, and 12 total TDs.

Keep in mind this assumes each player participates in all 17 games. Their per-game averages could be a better gauge; Gibbs is tracking for 17.9 touches per game to Mont's 12.3.

While this isn't a perfect comparison, the absolute worst case for Montgomery could be a Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott situation from 2022. Pollard dominated the receiving work and had nearly 150 more rushing yards than Zeke, but the touchdowns were still there for Elliott. He had 12 rushing touchdowns, making him RB19 for the season.

This is the blueprint for Montgomery. Will he easily surpass his ADP by 20 spots like season? Probably not, especially when his ADP has moved up to RB20.

Gibbs is a blooming star with probably nothing stopping him from more touches. However, Montgomery is still quality back that has two years and nearly $12 million on his contract remaining. This is simple; Detroit has two great backs and both will probably get their fair share. It'd be foolish to not lighten some of the load on Gibbs.

While Montgomery probably won't surpass his ADP by much, I still think he can finish around RB20 thanks to touchdowns. He was scoring 0.9 touchdowns per game in 2023. His success with short yardage was undeniable, and the opportunities should still be present even with Gibbs stepping to center stage.

No, this probably won't be the 2023 Montgomery return, but solid fantasy value is still present.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.