Fantasy Football Buy Low: Running Back Breakout Candidates (Week 12)
Arguably the best thing about season-long fantasy football is the ability to trade.
Via the trade market, teams can dramatically alter their rosters overnight in a way that just isn't possible from free agent pickups.
It's not always easy, but if you can identify underperforming players who have the potential to improve as the season progresses, that can be the difference in making the fantasy playoffs or getting banished to the losers bracket.
That's what we'll try to do here. Now that we're a few games into the season and have a decent 2024 sample to look at, I'll be breaking down the top buy-low running backs to target every week until the deadline.
Which running backs should you trade for in fantasy football ahead of Week 12?
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise stated.
Buy-Low Running Back Targets for Week 12
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A running back involved in a committee can be a headache to deal with in fantasy, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have phased out Sean Tucker in recent weeks, leaving the backfield touches to Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. While White is trusted more in pass protection and as a receiver, Irving has been the more explosive back all season.
Entering Week 12, White is registering -0.02 rushing yards over expected per attempt, a 37.5% rushing success rate, and 66.3 scrimmage yards per game on 13 touches per game. Comparatively, Irving is logging 0.50 rushing yards over expected per attempt, a 45.8% rushing success rate, and 68 scrimmage yards per game on 12.2 touches per game.
Given Irving's ability to be effective in a limited role up to this point, we could see him benefit from a post-bye rookie bump with the Bucs having a bye week in Week 11. If Irving does see an increased role down the stretch, he could be a league-winning RB considering Tampa Bay's schedule the rest of the way.
Along with facing the New York Giants in Week 12, the Buccaneers are scheduled to take on the Carolina Panthers (twice), Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas Cowboys, and New Orleans Saints. Aside from Los Angeles, the other five teams Tampa Bay will face are all 18th or worse in fantasy points per game allowed to the running back position, paving the way for Irving to finish his rookie campaign on a high note.
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
As of writing, the Dallas Cowboys have yet to play in Week 11, but Rico Dowdle is on my radar as a potential buy-low candidate ahead of his clash with the Houston Texans. Similar to Irving, Dowdle has looked like the most explosive back for his team this year, and the stats prove it.
Across eight games this season, Ezekiel Elliott is posting a forgettable -1.02 rushing yards over expected per attempt and a dismal 35.2% rushing success rate. Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook has appeared in just two games, and he's been less than impressive in his limited playing time for the Cowboys.
As for Dowdle, he's registering a 48.2% rushing success rate and 67.5 scrimmage yards per game despite being given 13.4 touches per game on a 48.8% snap rate. Head coach Mike McCarthy recently iterated that Dallas needs to get Dowdle the ball more because he's "the lead back," so we could see him get closer to 70% or 80% of the backfield snaps moving forward.
Even though Dowdle is less enticing with Dak Prescott out for the year, having a backup quarterback could lead to more pass-catching opportunities for Dowdle. Dowdle has finished as the RB9 or better (in half-PPR formats) in two of his last four games, and there is room for him to be a solid starter in fantasy if he sees an increased workload in the coming weeks.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Unlike the first two names in this article, there isn't any concern with the workload for Rhamondre Stevenson. After getting "benched" earlier in the season, Stevenson has carried the ball 20 times in three of his last four games while seeing three-plus targets in 8 of his 10 appearances for the New England Patriots.
Just this past week, Stevenson recorded a 75.3% snap rate, 52.2% route rate, 71.4% red-zone rushing share, and 89 scrimmage yards on 24 touches. While trading for a skill player on the Patriots isn't exciting, their offense has shown improvement since Drake Maye took over at quarterback, and Stevenson is going to receive a decent workload each game.
Even when New England is playing from behind, Stevenson is a capable receiving back who is trusted in pass protection. This is extremely important as the Patriots use the rest of the season to let Maye develop under center.
The schedule also isn't terrible for the Pats, with the Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills (twice), and Chargers coming up. Even if the efficiency numbers don't favor Stevenson, it's worth seeing what the person rostering him would take in a trade as Stevenson could have a nice conclusion to the season.
New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.