FanDuel Pitching Primer: Monday 8/7/23
When building a daily fantasy baseball lineup on FanDuel, nailing your pitcher is crucial to succeeding in any contest. Strikeouts are king -- although, innings-eaters and win potential can't be ignored.
With a pitcher serving as the backbone of your lineup, we don't want to mess around. Let's take a look at some of the top pitcher options and values, as well as some honorable mentions for today's main DFS slate on FanDuel.
Statistics are via FanGraphs unless otherwise stated.
Top Options
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves ($11,500)
Whenever Spencer Strider is on a slate, we have to take notice.
The Atlanta Braves' hurler has been one of baseball's brightest all season. While the 3.61 ERA can often throw some off, his underlying stats are the league's best.
Strider currently has the top strikeout rate in the majors at a sensational 39.3%, higher than his mark last year. The raw strikeout number sits at 208 with time to chase the 300 plateau as a 20.0% swinging strike rate should only help that out. He, like the Braves, just gets better and better. Strider also has a 2.57 SIERA and 2.90 FIP, signaling in every way why he is the top guy each time he's on the mound.
The matchup is all the better as the Pittsburgh Pirates have the worst implied total on the day at 3.24. Pittsburgh has the 12th-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 23.6%, lining up Strider for another potential double-digit strikeout day. They also have a 24th-ranked .305 wOBA -- a number not to be afraid of.
Strider is projected for the second-most points among any pitcher on the day with 36.1 FanDuel points per numberFire.
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees ($11,000)
Gerrit Cole is the top-projected pitcher of the slate, per numberFire, and for good reason.
numberFire's model has Cole projected for 37.3 FanDuel points, and the Chicago White Sox have the third worst implied total at 3.57. If Strider wasn't also going today, Cole would be the knockout play.
The New York Yankees are still fighting to get into the playoffs, and they'll try to do so on the back of their ace. Cole has a 2.64 ERA on the year -- his best since the shortened 2020 season. What's interesting about Cole is that he has taken a step back when it comes to his usual strikeout rate as it's below 30% for the first time since 2017 but is still at a highly respectable 27.5%.
Matching up with the White Sox means facing a bottom-of-the-league .296 wOBA and a comfortable 23.8% strikeout rate for Cole to take advantage of.
It's really a pick'em today between Cole and Strider because both matchups are all you could ask for.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers ($10,500)
Never a bad day when you get the Colorado Rockies outside of Colorado -- which is exactly what Freddy Peralta has today.
Peralta has been good, not great, this season as you can tell by his 3.85 SIERA and 4.23 FIP. The strikeout rate is up from last year -- 28.3%, compared to 27.1% -- and it was just two games ago that Peralta sat down 13 in six innings of work.
The Rockies are down to a .295 wOBA when they're on the road while striking out 26.5% of the time, which is the fifth-highest clip. With Peralta not having to worry about Coors for this one, he is in a great spot tonight.
The only problem with Peralta is that he doesn't often go long in games as he's yet to go past six innings this season.
He's projected for 34.2 FanDuel points, though -- the third-best total among all pitchers, per numberFire.
Value Plays
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox ($9,000)
There are days where Dylan Cease looks like an ace, and perhaps this will be be one of them.
Cease has a big-time matchup against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees, one that he's going to want to be at the top of his game for. This hasn't been his best season as his 4.06 SIERA illustrates, but he's still been in decent form with a 26.9% strikeout rate.
New York has begun to turn things around offensively with the return of Aaron Judge, but it's not to a point where you should completely avoid this matchup because of Judge's return. The Yankees still have a .307 wOBA that ranks 23rd.
If you're looking to save salary, it doesn't get much better than rolling the dice on a potential big Cease outing. numberFire has him projected for 33.3 FanDuel points.
Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox ($8,900)
Brayan Bello has been good for the Boston Red Sox this season, and he tracks as a good value on the slate.
The Red Sox have been an up-and-down team so far this year, but after a disastrous sweep at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays, the start by Bello will have a lot more meaning today.
He's been respectable in his first full season with the team, sitting at a 4.07 SIERA to go along with a 20.6% strikeout rate in 102 innings pitched. Bello's bread and butter this season has been the ground ball, which he's forcing at a 56.2% rate, which is fourth-best among pitchers with at least 100 innings this season.
The Kansas City Royals carry a 4.08 implied total, one of the worst of the day, which lines up Bello for a quality outing. Sporting a .296 wOBA and 23.7% strikeout rate, Bello is a good value option.
Bello is projected for 31.5 FanDuel points by numberFire's model.
Honorable Mentions
Logan Webb ($10,000): Webb's strikeout rate is lower than that of the top options (24.7%), and he has a tougher matchup with the Los Angeles Angels. He'll have more opportune days to be in DFS lineups.
Kodai Senga ($9,800): The New York Mets haven't had many bright spots this year, but Senga has been one. His 28.7% strikeout rate makes for an appealing case, but with the Chicago Cubs being the matchup, it's better to pass on Senga for more favorable options.
Patrick Sandoval ($8,500): Sandoval is projected for a healthy 29.7 FanDuel points today as the San Francisco Giants' limited power and high strikeout rate (24.8%) make for a good matchup. The Angels' lefty doesn't strike out guys at a high rate (18.6%), but it could be one of his better days in that column.
Dane Dunning ($8,400): Dunning has been a key part of the rotation for the Texas Rangers, and now he gets to take on the Oakland Athletics. The A's have the fourth worst implied total on the day at 3.69. Dunning does have a meager 17.0% strikeout rate but is coming off a dominant start over the White Sox that featured 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball and 11 strikeouts. He is a value who is worth a long look.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.