FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Tuesday 12/19/23

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Stephen Curry ($8,700) -- A star-studded showdown between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors is Tuesday's nightcap, and surprisingly, the struggling Dubs are just 5.5-point underdogs. If we get a competitive game, Stephen Curry is probably the reason why. Curry (31.2% usage rate) is the engine that makes Golden State go, and Boston's kryptonite from last year against point guards hasn't been resolved. They're allowing the fourth-most points per game to opposing floor generals (26.2).

Devin Vassell ($6,500) -- The marquee -- and potentially only -- huge injury news on the slate is Victor Wembanyama sitting with an ankle injury. Pretty much every member of the San Antonio Spurs is a "yes" projection in DFS without their stud rookie, but there is a caveat to all of them. The 16.5-point spread against the Milwaukee Bucks is concerning, but, the Bucks' defense (115.6 rating) hasn't had an easy time stopping anyone. Devin Vassell's team-best increase in usage without Wemby (4.5 percentage points) is an obvious starting point if forecasting a close game.

Vince Williams Jr. ($4,600) -- Tonight's Memphis Grizzlies-New Orleans Pelicans clash just got a bit more interesting. Ja Morant will make his season debut on Tuesday, clearing much of the trouble Memphis has had all season offensively. However, the Grizz are still down Marcus Smart and Derrick Rose, so Vince Williams Jr. likely sticks around with the starting lineup in a significantly more efficient offense. Williams Jr. is one of numberFire's favorite value plays at guard behind an estimated 22.7 FanDuel points (FDP).

Others to Consider

C.J. McCollum ($7,700) -- C.J. McCollum crushed a sublime matchup on Sunday when he posted 34.4 FDP in just 26 minutes against the lowly Spurs, and he could do it again tonight. Memphis is allowing the third-most FDP per game to point guards (52.2). It's always a crowded scoring hierarchy for the Pels, but I actually feel great about more than 228.0 total points between these two top-12 teams in pace factor.

Malcolm Brogdon ($6,100) -- As a surprise, Portland Trail Blazers wing Shaedon Sharpe popped as questionable for Tuesday due to a groin issue. If Sharpe sits, it'll likely mean a lot more of their key reserves at shooting guard, starting with Malcolm Brogdon. He's posted 39.1 FDP per 36 minutes with Sharpe off the floor this season. Scoot Henderson ($5,300) should also get an uptick in minutes, but the rookie has less consistently delivered on them.

Wings

Top Plays

Jayson Tatum ($9,800) -- Perhaps I'm falling for a classic marketing trope, but a four-digit salary on Jayson Tatum is pretty appealing with a 233.0-point total in San Fran. Tatum has eclipsed 50 FDP nine separate times already. Golden State's defensive rating with Draymond Green off the floor is 114.0, which would be midpack for the entire season. Tatum and Curry are an excellent mini-stack if this one stays tight and they're trading baskets late.

Jerami Grant ($7,300) -- Jerami Grant is two games back from injury, and he's back to logging playoff-level minutes for the Blazers. Grant has topped 38 in each of his first two games since returning. With that being the case, he's posted 34.1 FDP per 36 minutes and could see a few extra shots if Sharpe is indeed forced out of the lineup. He's a high-floor option in the upper mid-range that's fairly ugly in light of Morant's return.

Jeremy Sochan ($5,500) -- The general answer for Spurs is "yes", so I don't want Jeremy Sochan's inclusion here to dissuade anyone targeting Keldon Johnson ($7,000) or Malaki Branham ($5,000), who might be especially valuable if this game turns into a blowout. However, Sochan has posted 29.0 FDP per 36 with Wemby off the floor, and his usage rate (19.7%) is low to avoid issues should the Spurs melt down offensively. With blowout risk, Johnson's higher salary definitely takes a backseat to his $5,000-range peers.

Others to Consider

Brandon Ingram ($7,800) -- You can consider a Pelican at all levels, and I'd be remiss to not include Brandon Ingram when he's topped 40 FDP in four of his last seven entering a pretty solid game environment. However, with two single-digit scoring efforts in that period, the floor is fairly low. He's a tournament-only consideration on the short slate.

Khris Middleton ($6,700) -- Quietly, Khris Middleton has regained a full role for a Bucks squad that needed him. Middleton has topped 29 minutes in each of his last four games, and no one allows more FDP per game to shooting guards (46.0) than San Antonio. Like Ingram, he's probably best reserved for tournaments with the likelihood this game isn't close, and he'd be among the first Milwaukee players to the bench in a non-competitive affair.

Bigs

Top Plays

Zion Williamson ($7,900) -- The blowout risk with Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,900) turns this positional group into him or bust at the top, and I'd rather not spend the salary. Instead, I'll have more balanced builds, and that would bring Zion Williamson into the fold. A maintenance day seems to have done him wonders, averaging 49.9 FDP per 36 minutes in his last two games -- both ending as blowouts. Memphis allows the 10th-most FDP per game to opposing fours (48.9).

Deandre Ayton ($6,700) -- I've got nothing here with Deandre Ayton besides a revenge game and a little common sense. Other than added motivation against a Phoenix Suns team that traded (embarrassed?) him, this salary just appears to have dipped too low during a recent cold streak. Ayton has cobbled together 35.9 FDP per 36 minutes this season overall, and there could be a bit more asked of him if Sharpe sits. He also took his season-high in shot attempts (14) against Phoenix last time these two met.

Zach Collins ($5,100) -- No one is shining quite like Zach Collins in numberFire's projections. Collins' recent downtick in playtime time (52 minutes combined in his last three games) should end in earnest with Wembanyama on the shelf for Tuesday's contest. Averaging 40.6 FDP per 36 minutes with Wemby off the floor, Collins might be the only Spurs starter that could realistically pan out in a blowout. He and Branham are likely your best targets if expecting a dominant Milwaukee win.

Others to Consider

Jaren Jackson Jr. ($8,400) -- Last season, the arrival of Ja Morant would effectively squash Jaren Jackson Jr. at a salary this high, but that's always subject to change with a new composition for the 2023-24 Grizzlies. Triple J's "boom" potential doesn't really have to do with his other components as much as it does staying out of foul trouble and hitting the high end of his 2.93 stocks (steals plus blocks) per 36 minutes, though. I think he's viable in tournaments despite Ja's return.

Brook Lopez ($6,800) -- Nothing keeps me up at night like Brook Lopez on a small slate. Lopez's ability to burst in halves or individual games can squash all of his teammates, including Giannis, in the process. The Spurs are bottom five in points and rebounds per game allowed to centers, so if we get a vintage effort tonight in a Bucks blowout, he could be a tournament-winner at a mid-range salary -- and come with next-to-no popularity. However, his floor, like failing to eclipse 29 FDP in three straight, remains painfully low.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.