FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks and Helper: Monday 1/29/24

Since NBA DFS is easier to predict than baseball or football, it would likely get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Basketball players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right? Trust me -- it's not!

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up to date with key injuries. numberFire's projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news. numberFire also has player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

In addition to daily projections, numberFire also offers a matchup heat map and lineup optimizer to help give you an edge.

On top of all that, here at FanDuel Research, we'll come at you each day with this NBA DFS primer, which breaks down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's dive into today's main slate on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Picks

Guards

Top Plays

Jalen Brunson ($9,300) -- With Julius Randle slated to miss a few weeks, Jalen Brunson should serve as the unquestioned No. 1 option for the New York Knicks going forward. Randle hasn't missed a game yet this season, but he missed two games last season, during which Brunson averaged 55.5 FanDuel points (FPs) via a 37% usage rate. I'd expect similar usage tonight in a soft matchup with the Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte ranks 26th in defensive rating this month, and they've given up the fifth-most threes and highest three-point field goal percentage over that span. Brunson (2.8 threes per game; 42.6 3P%) can take advantage.

Jalen Green ($6,800) -- Jalen Green's production is inconsistent, but he's been playing well of late (42.9 FPs last three games) and has a juicy matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. LA has plummeted to 22nd in defensive rating over their last 15 games, during which they've given up the third-most FPs to opposing SGs, per FantasyPros. A 232 over/under and one-point spread suggests a favorable game environment, too.

Tre Jones ($6,400) -- Now here's something you won't see every day: the San Antonio Spurs have the main slate's highest implied total (122). That puts Tre Jones in a nice spot to light it up against a Washington Wizards defense allowing the third-most FPs to opposing PGs. Jones himself has been consistently productive of late, averaging 13.2 points, 7.4 assists, and 31.9 FPs over his last 12 games. He exceeded 30 FPs eight times over that span, including a 46.6-FP effort against these very Wizards.

Others to Consider

Luka Doncic ($12,500) -- Luka Doncic has gone for 70 FPs in four of his last five games. According to RotoGrinders CourtIQ, Luka's averaged 66.9 FPs via a 36% usage rate with Kyrie Irving out of the lineup, offsetting a brutal matchup with the Orlando Magic. numberFire projects him for 58.5 FPs tonight, by far the highest of the slate. You at least have to consider him given this hot streak.

D'Angelo Russell ($7,800) -- In eight games since re-entering the starting lineup, D'Angelo Russell has averaged 43.8 FPS and a 25% usage rate. He's shooting a blistering 54% from deep over that span, while tonight's opponent, the Houston Rockets, have given up the most points and threes to SGs over their last 15 games. Don't expect him to cool off quite yet.

Jalen Suggs ($5,300) -- Jalen Suggs saw 30 minutes for the first time in over three weeks last night, notching 29.3 FPs in the process. I'm skeptical Markelle Fultz (questionable) plays in the second leg of their back-to-back, so Suggs should serve as Orlando's lead guard tonight. That's a good role to have against the Dallas Mavericks. Over their last 15 games, Dallas has given up the sixth-most points to PGs and third-most to SGs.

Wings

Top Plays

Kyle Kuzma ($8,000) -- For me, tonight's slate doesn't lend itself to high-salary wings. I'd rather turn to a mid-range option like Kyle Kuzma given his soft matchup with San Antonio. Although the Spurs have been decent against wings, they still rank just 25th in defensive rating on the year. A slate-high 241 over/under between two of the four fastest-paced teams in the NBA makes this a game environment worth targeting. With 35 FPs in nine of his last 10 games, Kuzma is set up well here.

Keldon Johnson ($6,400) -- I can't get enough of this Spurs-Wizards matchup, so I'm more than willing to turn to Keldon Johnson. Johnson went for 31.8 FPs when these teams matched up nine days ago despite going 0 for 3 from deep and failing to record a steal or block. He's since racked up nine stocks (steals plus blocks) over his last three games, and the Wizards have given up the most FPs to SFs on the season.

Josh Hart ($5,600) -- As of Monday afternoon, Josh Hart is numberFire's fourth-best point-per-dollar value on the slate thanks to a 30.9-FP projection. He went for 31.3 FPs when Julius Randle exited Saturday's contest early, exceeding 30 minutes for the first time in three weeks. His ability to fill up a box score should shine against a Hornets defense allowing the third-most FPs to opposing SFs.

Others to Consider

Cam Thomas ($6,600) -- Cameron Thomas is heating back up, exceeding 20 points in six of his last eight games and averaging 31.6 FPs over that span. On the season, Utah is bottom-10 in defensive rating but top-10 in pace. He went for 44.3 FPs when they squared off earlier in the year. That feels like an attainable ceiling tonight.

Tim Hardaway ($6,200) -- Tim Hardaway Jr. has averaged 28.6 FPs via a 26% usage rate without Kyrie and could see an even bigger bump if Dante Exum (questionable) sits.

Quentin Grimes ($4,400) -- The 24 minutes Quentin Grimes played on Saturday were his most in over a month, and that directly coincided with Julius Randle's injury. He benefits from the same stellar matchup as Josh Hart but comes at a fraction of the salary.

Jonathan Isaac ($4,000) -- Jonathan Isaac has played his way back into Orlando's rotation, notching 22 minutes in two straight contests. He went for 16.0 and 22.1 FPs in those two, and he quietly leads the Magic with 1.19 FP per minute. Dallas has given up the fifth-most FPs to PFs this season, so Isaac is set up well to outperform his salary. His 22.9-FP numberFire projection makes him the second-best point-per-dollar value on the slate.

Bigs

Top Plays

Victor Wembanyama ($10,300) -- The Spurs are re-unleashing Victor Wembanyama; last outing's 29 minutes were the most he's played in over a month. Wemby's per-minute numbers (1.6 FP per minute) are ludicrous, and he's averaged 51.2 FPs in just 28.4 minutes over his last five games. Tonight, he's playing in the slate's top game environment against a Wizards team giving up the most FP to opposing centers. There's a lot to like here.

Nicolas Claxton ($7,800) -- Nicolas Claxton has averaged 40.7 FPs over his last five games, and a matchup with Utah puts him in a good spot to stay productive. Utah leads the league in pace over their last 15 games, during which they've given up the seventh-most FPs to centers. A one-point spread and 235-point over/under is about as good of a game environment as you can ask for, too. numberFire projects Claxton for 40.4 FPs tonight, the most among sub-$8,000 players.

Harrison Barnes ($5,900) -- Ride Harrison Barnes while he's hot. Barnes has notched at least 37 FPs in three straight games, averaging 36 minutes, 30.3 points, and 5.0 threes per game. He won't shoot 56% from three forever, but tonight's matchup is good enough to keep the good times rolling. Over their last 15 games, the Memphis Grizzlies have given up the ninth-most FPs to PFs. They've gone 8-7 over that span, hinting at a more competitive matchup than a 7.5-point spread would indicate.

Others to Consider

Domantas Sabonis ($10,200) -- Memphis has given up the fourth-most FPs to centers over this 15-game stretch, and they're 21st in rebound rate in that sample. Domantas Sabonis should feast.

Daniel Gafford ($7,000) -- The Spurs have been a top-10 matchup for opposing centers all season, and Daniel Gafford is coming off consecutive 40-FP outings. You do the math.

Precious Achiuwa ($5,600) -- Precious Achiuwa exceeded 30 minutes for the first time all season when Julius Randle left early. He's a sneaky salary-saver against a Hornets squad that's bottom-five in rebound rate.

Drew Eubanks ($4,800) -- Jusuf Nurkic is questionable, but he missed last night's contest, and Drew Eubanks stepped up for 22.1 FPs in a season-high 29 minutes. Even in a tough matchup with the Miami Heat, numberFire projects him for 27.7 FPs; that makes him the best point-per-dollar value on the slate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.