Duke vs North Carolina College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for March 7

The Duke Blue Devils (28-2, 16-1 ACC) take a seven-game win streak into a home matchup with the North Carolina Tar Heels (24-6, 12-5 ACC), winners of four straight.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Duke vs. North Carolina Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Saturday, March 7, 2026
• Game time: 6:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN
• Location: Durham, North Carolina
• Arena: Cameron Indoor Stadium

Duke vs. North Carolina Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Duke win (83.8%)

Before you bet on Saturday's Duke-North Carolina spread (Duke -16.5) or over/under (144.5 points), read the betting insights and trends below.

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Duke vs. North Carolina: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Duke has put together a 17-13-0 ATS record so far this year.
• North Carolina has won 17 games against the spread this year, while failing to cover 13 times.
• When playing at home, the Blue Devils sport a worse record against the spread (6-8-0) compared to their ATS record on the road (8-3-0).
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Tar Heels have a better winning percentage at home (.667, 12-6-0 record) than away (.444, 4-5-0).
• Duke has 10 wins against the spread in 17 conference games this season.
• North Carolina is 9-8-0 against the spread in ACC play this year.

Duke vs. North Carolina: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Duke has been the moneyline favorite in 23 games this season and has come away with the win 21 times (91.3%) in those contests.
• The Blue Devils have been a -2326 moneyline favorite on seven occasions this season and won every game.
• North Carolina has been the underdog on the moneyline eight total times this season. North Carolina has finished 5-3 in those games.
• The Tar Heels have yet to play as a moneyline underdog of +1060 or longer.
• Duke has an implied victory probability of 95.9% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Duke vs. North Carolina Head-to-Head Comparison

• Last season, Duke was 11th-best in college basketball on offense (83.2 points scored per game) and seventh-best on defense (62.8 points conceded).
• Duke was the 24th-best squad in the country in rebounds per game (35.6) and 12th-best in rebounds allowed (27.3) last year.
• Duke was 17th-best in the nation in assists (16.9 per game) last season.
• Duke was the ninth-best team in the nation in turnovers per game (8.9) and 265th in turnovers forced (10.4) last season.
• North Carolina averaged 80.7 points per game (29th-ranked in college basketball) last season, while giving up 74.7 points per contest (261st-ranked).
• With 33.2 boards per game, North Carolina was 105th in the nation. It allowed 31.2 rebounds per contest, which ranked 182nd in college basketball.
• North Carolina ranked 93rd in the country with 14.7 dimes per contest.
• North Carolina was 120th in college basketball with 10.5 turnovers per game last year. Meanwhile, it ranked 288th with 10.2 forced turnovers per contest.

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