Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers National League Division Series Preview

The Wild Card matchups were a breeze as all four teams swept their way to 2-0 wins.

The Arizona Diamondbacks cruised against the Milwaukee Brewers with 6-3 and 5-2 wins. Arizona is in store for a difficult challenge as they renew their divisional rivalry with the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Divisional Series (NLDS) -- which begins on Saturday at 9:20 pm EST.

The No. 2 seed Dodgers are significant favorites against the No. 6 seed Diamondbacks; FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds have LA listed at -200 to win the five-game series. However, Arizona flashed what it's capable of in the Wild Card Round, averaging 5.5 runs per game against one of the MLB's best pitching rotations.

The D-backs seem to have this playoff thing figured out as they have won at least one series in three of their last four postseason appearances. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are looking to redeem last season's loss in the NLDS against the San Diego Padres. LA has one thing on its mind: another World Series win.

The Dodgers have the second-shortest odds to win it all (+440), per FanDuel's World Series odds.

Let's break down the matchup by providing betting lines and advanced stats.

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers NL Division Series Odds: Moneyline, Totals Games, and Correct Score

Series Moneyline:

• Dodgers: -200
• Diamondbacks: +160

Total Games:

• 3 (+225)
• 4 (+162)
• 5 (+176)

Correct Score:

• Dodgers 3-0 (+310)
• Dodgers 3-1 (+280)
• Dodgers 3-2 (+490)
• Diamondbacks 3-0 (+1400)
• Diamondbacks 3-1 (+630)
• Diamondbacks 3-2 (+360)

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Dodgers:

• W-L Record: 100-62 (3rd)
• Run Differential: +207 (2nd)
• Home Record: 53-28
• Away Record: 47-34
• nERD: 1.70 (2nd)
• Offensive Stats:
  • HRs: 249 (2nd)
  • wOBA: .341 (2nd)
  • SLG: .455 (2nd)
  • BB%: 10.2% (2nd)
  • K%: 21.5% (10th-best)
• Pitching Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.07 (10th)
  • xFIP: 4.19 (13th)
  • K%: 23.1% (15th)
  • BB%: 7.5% (5th-best)

Diamondbacks:

• W-L Record: 84-78 (12th)
• Run Differential: -9 (15th)
• Home Record: 43-38
• Away Record: 41-40
• nERD: -0.05 (22nd)
• Offensive Stats:
  • HRs: 166 (22nd)
  • wOBA: .317 (17th)
  • SLG: .408 (17th)
  • BB%: 8.8% (14th)
  • K%: 20.4% (4th-best)
• Pitching Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.31 (19th)
  • xFIP: 4.36 (19th)
  • K%: 22.1% (22nd)
  • BB%: 8.6% (14th-worst)

Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers NL Division Series Analysis

The advanced stats reveal the Dodgers' clear advantages. Los Angeles was one of the best teams in baseball during the regular season, backed by their 100-62 record. The Dodgers boast one of the most dangerous batting lineups in the MLB, ranking second in all of home runs, wOBA, and slugging percentage (SLG).

Despite Zac Gallen contending for the National League Cy Young award throughout the season, Arizona's pitching could be a problem in the NLDS. The Snakes are 19th in skill-interactive earned run average (SIERA) and have allowed 197 home runs on the season -- the 14th-worst mark in baseball.

Arizona held the Brewers to only one home run in the Wild Card Round, but Milwaukee had the sixth-fewest long balls in the league (165) in 2023. LA's offense is a much stiffer challenge.

The NL West rivalry will also be a major storyline. In 13 head-to-head matchups this season, Los Angeles went 8-5 outright and 7-6 against run lines versus the D-backs. The Dodgers roll into the NLDS on a five-game winning streak against the Diamondbacks while touting an average winning margin of 4.2 runs. LA lit up Arizona's pitching in the most recent series in the last week of August, averaging 7.7 runs per game.

If the D-backs are to challenge the Dodgers, launching big flies could be vital. Arizona averaged two home runs per game against Milwaukee, who ranked 20th in home runs allowed per game. The Dodgers have a similar weakness, ranking 21st in the category.

However, Los Angeles will open the series with Clayton Kershaw taking the mound for Game 1. The three-time Cy Young winner has shined with a 2.23 ERA over his previous eight starts. Thanks to the series sweep over the Brew Crew, Arizona will also likely have one of its best pitchers on the bump in Merrill Kelly, who posted a 3.22 ERA over six starts in September.

FanDuel's MLB odds have the Dodgers as heavy moneyline favorites for Game 1 (-196). Kershaw has allowed seven homers over his previous eight starts and is in the 50th percentile of Savant's hard-hit percentage. Can the D-backs bear their poisonous fangs in Game 1, led by the rookie sensation Corbin Carroll?

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.