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Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Wild Card Sunday

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas•_riley8

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Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Wild Card Sunday

Following a two-game slate on Saturday, Wild Card Weekend has three games scheduled for Sunday. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills will kick off the day, followed by the Green Bay Packers heading south to take on the Dallas Cowboys. Then, the day is capped with a primetime matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions with Matthew Stafford taking on his former team.

Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Wild Card Sunday FanDuel slate.

Slate Overview

Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.

Team
Opponent
Implied Total
Spread
Over/Under
Opp D Rank
Opp Pass D Rank
Opp Rush D Rank
DALGB29.5-7.550.5221921
DETLAR27.5-351.5211823
LARDET24.5351.523298
BUFPIT23.5-1036.59913
GBDAL20.57.550.55611
PITBUF12.51036.57719

Quarterbacks

Sunday's slate is loaded with enticing options at quarterback. According to numberFire's projections, five of the top seven signal-callers who are tracking for the most FanDuel Points are playing on Sunday. Of course, this means we should expect most of the QBs on the board to carry high salaries.

Mason Rudolph, who was named the Steelers' starter for Sunday, has the lowest salary by far at $6,300 while Matthew Stafford has the next lowest salary ($7,400). Considering the high-level QBs with favorable matchups on Sunday, Rudolph lacks little upside. He has the lowest projected FanDuel Points among all starting QBs this weekend (10.67), and Rudolph put up 7.98 and 11.46 FanDuel Points over the last two weeks.

Now, let's get to the intriguing plays. As the implied totals suggest, the Cowboys, Lions, Rams, and Bills could be poised for good scoring days. Josh Allen ($9,000) and Dak Prescott ($8,600) carry the highest projections. I have some hesitation with playing Allen this week, as the Steelers still feature a top-10 defense. It's worth noting that T.J. Watt will be absent due to injury, but Pittsburgh gives up the sixth-fewest points per game (PPG) and the third-fewest rushing touchdowns per game.

Dak, on the other hand, looks much more promising. Green Bay's pass defense has been a problem for them, allowing the 13th-most yards per passing attempt and the 10th-highest expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB). Dallas totals 37.4 PPG at home this season, and Prescott is averaging 27.96 FanDuel Points over his previous six home games. Dak has the highest projected points among QBs this week at 21.90.

Behind Prescott, Jared Goff has the next highest salary ($7,700). The Lions' QB will face numberFire's 12th-worst defense, but Goff has been under 20.0 FanDuel Points in six of the last eight games. In the battle between Los Angeles and Detroit, Stafford could be the better play. The Lions have the fourth-worst pass defense, giving up the third-most yards per passing attempt. Stafford has also eclipsed 20.0 points in four of his last six outings.

To round out quarterbacks, Green Bay's Jordan Love has the third-lowest salary on Sunday ($7,600). His opponent boasts the sixth-best pass defense in the league. However, the Cowboys' excellent pass defense depends on their fearsome pass rush, and the Packers have the second-best pass block win rate. Love has tapped into his massive potential with an average of 21.06 FanDuel Points over his previous eight games.

Prescott, Stafford, and Love could be the best plays for Sunday. I'm a huge fan of Stafford's reasonable salary against one of the NFL's worst pass defenses.

Running Backs

With an average of 20.96 FanDuel Points over his last seven games, Kyren Williams is on virtually every DFS radar. I can't ignore the awesome usage for Williams with an 82.3% snap share and 80.3% red zone rushing attempt share. However, his $9,000 salary may cause some hesitation, as the Lions have the eighth-best run defense.

Dallas' Tony Pollard has the second-highest salary ($7,800) and is projected the second-highest points among all Wild Card games (13.18). He finally produced in Week 18 with 14.60 FanDuel Points, but he averaged only 5.0 points from Week 15 to Week 17. Plus, Pollard has only six touchdowns on the season.

We finally get into some intriguing plays with Detroit's two-headed monster in David Montgomery ($7,600) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,400), as they face the 10th-worst run defense. This could be about deciding who is poised for the bigger game -- Montgomery or Gibbs?

The rookie Gibbs has gotten more work in the passing game with two targets per game since Week 17. However, the Rams give up the second-fewest receiving yards against running backs, and Gibbs is averaging only 2.6 yards per carry paired with -17.1 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) over the last two games. The carries in the red zone have been nearly even in the last two games with Montgomery taking 45.5% of the attempts compared to Gibbs at 54.5%. Montgomery has simply been more productive since Week 16 with an average of 12.13 FanDuel Points.

Since his outburst of 34.10 points against Dallas in Week 15, James Cook ($7,100) is averaging 4.87 FanDuel Points. I still have a hard time buying into Cook with his inconsistent red zone touches (30.3%).

Aaron Jones ($7,000) and Najee Harris ($6,500) are among my favorite running back plays. Both tailbacks have been on tears. Jones is averaging 119.3 rushing yards and 13.53 FanDuel Points since Week 16, and Harris is totaling 117.0 rushing yards and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game with 21.75 points per game since Week 17.

Stopping the run has been the Cowboys' weakness, as they give up the 16th-fewest rushing yards per game compared to the 5th-fewest passing yards per game. The Bills also have the 14th-worst run defense, giving Harris a chance to run rampant.

Riding one of the hot hands (Jones or Harris) while taking a reliable back (Williams or Montgomery) could be the way to go.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb is the obvious name atop DFS receivers for Sunday ($10,000). His salary is the highest among all players (even over the QBs). It makes sense, as Lamb's projected FanDuel points (15.44) are even higher than some quarterbacks this weekend -- such as Joe Flacco's projected 14.96 for Saturday's slate.

The production is certainly there with an average of 22.97 FanDuel Points and a ridiculous 36.7% target share and 42.1% red zone target share since Week 17. Lamb is averaging 15 targets and 13 receptions over the last two games. These numbers alone could be worth targeting against the 14th-worst pass defense.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has the second-highest salary ($9,000) and has consistently produced by averaging 17.58 FanDuel Points since Week 15. This stretch also includes one touchdown in four consecutive games. Facing the 10th-worst pass defense should bode well for St. Brown.

Cooper Kupp ($7,500) is one of my favorite players for Sunday after he rested in Week 18. Of course, you always have to worry about Puka Nacua ($8,000) taking Kupp's targets. Over Kupp's last four outings, he has a 26.5% target share compared to Nacua's 25.7%. The red zone is where there's a big difference with Kupp getting 44.4% of the targets versus Puka's 18.5%. Against the Lions' struggling secondary, Kupp could thrive with frequent targets in the red zone.

Pairing a receiver with Jordan Love could also be a smart move. Look no further than Jayden Reed ($7,000), who is averaging 100.5 receiving yards and one touchdown per game since Week 17. Christian Watson ($6,400) continues to deal with a lingering hamstring injury and has missed five consecutive games. During that stretch, Reed has a team-high 21.4% target share and 14.8% red zone target share (second-best).

Tight Ends

The Cowboys' Jake Ferguson ($6,200) could be the clear top option at tight end. Sam LaPorta ($7,000) -- who has the highest salary among tight ends -- is questionable for Sunday, which could point toward backing Dallas' tight end.

Ferguson has the highest projected points among tight ends for Sunday's slate (7.31). He's averaging a healthy number of targets since Week 13 with 7.3 per game. His red zone production has lacked, though, with a 17.9% red zone target share since Week 13.

Frankly, Sunday's group of tight ends are not the best. Finding a sleeper could be the way to go. Tyler Higbee ($5,200) is one solid option, as he is averaging 4.8 targets per game over his last five games. However, he is questionable for Sunday.

If Higbee suits up, touchdowns could decide his success; he could need a repeat performance of Week 12's 17.40 FanDuel Points with two TDs. Sunday's opponent -- the Lions -- give up the ninth-most points against tight ends.

Defenses

The Bills' D/ST ($5,000) could be the only reliable option for Sunday. They face the worst offense on Sunday by a landslide with the Steelers holding the ninth-worst offense paired with a implied total of only 12.5.

Buffalo has the highest projected FanDuel Points for Wild Card Weekend (8.91). Plus, the unit has produced over the last two games with an average of 14.5 points and three takeaways per game.

Sunday's forecast is also calling for Buffalo's patented lake effect snow, which would create some sloppy conditions. This only further points to a low-scoring contest for the Steelers-Bills.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.


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