Daily Fantasy Football Picks and Helper: Wild Card Saturday
NFL Wild Card Weekend kicks off this Saturday with the Cleveland Browns visiting the Houston Texans and the Miami Dolphins making the trek to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.
Let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Wild Card Saturday FanDuel slate.
Slate Overview
Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on FanDuel Sportsbook odds, and opponent defensive ranks for overall defense, pass defense, and rush defense, based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model.
Team | Opponent | Implied Total | Spread | Over/Under | Opp D Rank | Opp Pass D Rank | Opp Rush D Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLE | HOU | 24.5 | -2.5 | 44.5 | 19 | 20 | 2 |
KC | MIA | 24.5 | -4.5 | 44.5 | 12 | 10 | 16 |
HOU | CLE | 21.5 | +2.5 | 44.5 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
MIA | KC | 19.5 | +4.5 | 44.5 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
Quarterbacks
It's clear we have a loaded slate of QBs when Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000) is the least expensive starter on the board. Patrick Mahomes ($8,000), Joe Flacco ($7,800), and C.J. Stroud ($7,600) round out the stellar signal-callers we have access to this Saturday, and though a tough decision is afoot, weather conditions might help us narrow down the list of preferred quarterbacks.
The Chiefs-Dolphins game will take place amid horrid temperatures. The forecast in Kansas City shows us that the temperature is expected to sit below 10 degrees by kickoff time, making it one of the coldest games in NFL history. A 2016 NFC Wild Card game between the Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks featured below freezing temperatures (the wind chill in KC this Saturday is expected to be below freezing), and resulted in a modest 10-9 final score.
Now, the market hasn't budged on the current 44.5 over/under for this Chiefs-Dolphins matchup, meaning we shouldn't let the weather rule our opinions. But the frigid temp should be kept in mind as we concoct our lineup for this slate, especially when it comes to the passing game.
Mahomes is still a very viable play, as numberFire is projecting him to net a slate-high 19.1 FanDuel Points and Miami's middle-of-the-road pass D offers a friendly-enough matchup.
I'm less high on Tua. KC's pass defense is solid, and we should expect Miami to suffer from the weather conditions on the road a bit more so than the Chiefs.
Stroud has been awesome and should be given consideration, but the Browns have the best pass defense in the league, and Houston doesn't tout a slew of interesting receiver stacking options.
This brings us to Joe Flacco. Perhaps the two-week break and recent overperformance should have us jumping off the Flacco hype train, but he won't be playing in treacherous conditions this week and will get to let the ball fly against a Houston pass D that ranks 23rd in the league.
Flacco scored 26.82 FanDuel Points against the Texans in Week 16. I'll back him to do well in a friendly matchup and environment.
Running Backs
When it comes to running backs, rostering Isiah Pacheco ($8,000) is non-negotiable in my book.
Pacheco's 66.7% red zone rush share is lethal, and the cold temps in KC could favor the run game. Plus, Jerick McKinnon (pelvis) remains out for Kansas City. In three games without McKinnon, Pacheco is averaging 23.1 FanDuel Points.
I'm not particularly high on Devin Singletary ($6,400). Houston's run game is unimpressive and Cleveland is ceding the sixth-fewest FanDuel Points to running backs. With that being said, numberFire is projecting Singletary to net 14.0 FanDuel Points (highest among RBs) this Saturday.
Jerome Ford ($7,000) is worth a look. In five games with Flacco under center, Ford has three receiving touchdowns. While he's not the main red zone rusher for this team (see Kareem Hunt), he has been averaging 11.2 carries per game in the Flacco era, but Houston has the league's second-best schedule-adjusted rush defense, per numberFire.
Miami's injury report leaves us with a few question marks. Raheem Mostert ($8,200) and De'Von Achane ($7,400) have been limited in practice this week, but we should expect them to play in a win-or-go-home game. Add in the weather conditions, and I'll have a hard time not siding with Mostert this weekend. He's exceeded 32.0 FanDuel Points on two occasions this season, and unless we hear otherwise regarding his typical high usage, we shouldn't be shocked if Mostert is the top points scorer for Miami this weekend.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins ($8,300) is off the heels of a monstrous week (30.0 FanDuel Points) and offers great stacking upside with Stroud.
It's annoying that his salary is this reflective of a recent big game, but rostering Collins is a solid way to get in on Houston's offense should you fade Stroud. Beyond Collins, Robert Woods ($5,300) has potential for the Texans. Noah Brown's status doesn't look promising, so we could see Woods with an atypically high target share this Saturday.
Amari Cooper ($7,500) and Elijah Moore ($6,000) both catch my eye. Houston gave up the 12th-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season. Since Flacco joined Cleveland, Cooper is rocking with a 25.0% red zone target share and 33.3% end zone target share while Moore has an 18.5% red zone target share and 23.1% end zone target share. Cooper's salary is more modest than it should be, and Moore provides us with decent enough opportunities at $6,000.
We obviously cannot ignore Tyreek Hill ($9,400). numberFire is forecasting a 16.1 FanDuel Point (most among non-QBs on this slate) outing for him, and if Jaylen Waddle ($6,800) stays on the injury report, Hill's potential could shoot through the roof. With that being said, the Chiefs limited Hill to just 8.5 FanDuel Points in Week 9. Plus, I'd hate to waste this much salary on a player if the weather in KC proves to be too limiting.
Rashee Rice ($7,800) is the lone Kansas City WR I have legitimate trust in at this point. Moore and Woods are better salary-saving options than those on KC. Rice touts an 18.0% target share (second-highest) and 24.2% red zone target share (highest). But I'd feel comfortable fading the Chiefs at this position altogether so long as I rostered Pacheco and perhaps Travis Kelce.
Tight Ends
Speaking of the devil -- Travis Kelce ($7,200) hasn't lived up to his name this season, scoring 20-plus FanDuel Points on just one occasion. But in a game as big as this one, the Chiefs will fight tooth and nail to get Kelce going.
He leads the team in target share and end zone share, and we can't forget that he went for 257 yards and four touchdowns in just three playoff games last postseason. Miami did limit him to a meager 2.9 FanDuel Points in Week 9, but they've given up the 11th-most yards and sixth-most (tied) touchdowns to tight ends this season.
David Njoku ($7,000) has been thriving alongside Flacco. He's averaging 18.3 FanDuel Points across his last four games. Njoku will now have a chance to shine against the Texans, who allowed 1,024 receiving yards to tight ends this season, good for the fifth-most in the league.
Defenses
The Chiefs D/ST ($4,000) and Dolphins D/ST ($3,700) should benefit from the cold weather. These teams have recorded the second- and third-most sacks this season and should be able to generate plenty of pressure in Saturday's battle.
Flacco has yet to go interception-less in his time with the Browns, throwing away the ball eight times in just five games. This makes the Texans D/ST ($3,400) appealing as the cheapest option on the board.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.