Biggest Winners and Losers of the 2024 NFL Schedule Release

We've known which teams will face which during the 2024 NFL season for a long time.

That means Wednesday night's schedule release was largely pomp circumstance. Fun pomp and circumstance, to be clear, but the majority of the work was already done.

There was some key info that came out, though. Specifically, we found out when each team will have its bye and which teams lose home games -- or road games -- to play internationally.

They're small tweaks, but they do make a difference.

Here, we're going to run through the teams on the extremes and outline how much the final schedule impacted their expectations. I'll be using my 2024 win total model to gauge all of this. If I list a team as gaining 0.09 wins, that means their win total in my model increased 0.09 wins as a result of the portions of their schedule announced last night. In other words, opponents were already factored in; we're looking at just byes, travel, and international games here.

So, which teams got the biggest bumps or down with the full schedule out in the wild, and what does it mean for their NFL futures betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's start on the positive end and then finish with the aggrieved.

Biggest Winners

Green Bay Packers

2024 FanDuel Win Total: 9.5 (Over -134)

Schedule Release Bump: +0.09 wins

As you can see, things didn't change a ton last night. The biggest gainer in the entire league didn't even go up one-tenth of a win.

But the NFL's a tough sport, so you'll take what you can get. That's especially true in a now-difficult NFC North for the Green Bay Packers.

The biggest advantage for the Packers is that they have zero games where they face a team coming off a bye. They also turn a road game into a neutral-site duel when they face the Philadelphia Eagles Week 1 in Brazil.

After that game, the Packers have a great chance to get off to a hot start. They play the Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, and Arizona Cardinals all at home across the following five weeks, and they mix in a very winnable road game against the Tennessee Titans. Things get tougher from there, but this should put them in a good spot.

This isn't enough to get me to bite on the Packers' win total. I've got them down for 10.1 wins, and when over 9.5 is -134, we're not getting much value there. They're also still 0.4 wins behind the Detroit Lions, so I'm not betting the Packers based on this new info. It certainly does further justify some of the very reasonable hype, though.

New York Jets

2024 FanDuel Win Total: 9.5 (Over -142)

Schedule Release Bump: +0.08 wins

I thought taking the under on the New York Jets' win total was the right move before this release.

I still think that; it just got a little bit thinner.

The Jets' story is the same as the Packers': they have no games against teams coming off a bye, and they converted a road game into a neutral site thanks to a trip to London against the Minnesota Vikings.

This pushes the Jets up 0.08 wins in my model, but they're still down at 8.6 overall. That's well below their win total of 9.5, and with the under at +116, there's value there. It's not fun to bet against a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback and elite defense, though, and it just got a bit hairier thanks to this plush-ish schedule.

New England Patriots

2024 FanDuel Win Total: 5.5 (Over +116)

Schedule Release Bump: +0.08 wins

Frankly, the New England Patriots deserve this. And that comes from someone with Chad Pennington and D'Brickashaw Ferguson figurines sitting behind him.

Based on the factors we knew before Wednesday, the Patriots had the toughest schedule in the entire league, by my numbers, and they have the second-highest opposing average win total. That's still true! Things are just a bit less harsh now.

Looking at just their power rating in my model, the Patriots would be expected to win 6.5 games this year. But once you add in the schedule they face, that falls down to 5.7. That's why the Patriots' win total looks so low despite a solid defense and a steady bridge quarterback in Jacoby Brissett.

From a scheduling perspective, the Patriots face no teams coming off a bye. Additionally, their bye leads into a game with the Arizona Cardinals, and you'll take that bump in one of their more winnable games.

We should still be skeptical of the Patriots. Their schedule is hell. But this -- plus a fun slew of skill guys in the draft -- does give some reason for optimism.

Other Winners:

New York Giants: +0.05 wins

Atlanta Falcons: +0.04 wins

Biggest Losers

Chicago Bears

2024 FanDuel Win Total: 8.5 (Over -150)

Schedule Release Bump: -0.07 wins

Welcome to the NFL, Caleb Williams! Enjoy!

The Chicago Bears' biggest downgrade in the schedule was the loss of a home date. They'll play the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, pushing them down to eight games at Soldier Field. Luckily, that's the first London game for the Jags, so the Bears won't be at a travel disadvantage, but it's still a negative.

The other key is that the Bears will face the Packers in Week 11 as Green Bay comes off its bye. Given how tough the NFC North is, those margins matter.

Currently, my model is showing value in the under on the Bears' win total. I have them at 8.1 wins, and they're +122 to go under 8.5 wins. I haven't pulled the trigger yet because betting against Williams is scary, but this gives a bit more incentive to finally take that next step.

San Francisco 49ers

2024 FanDuel Win Total: 11.5 (Over +100)

Schedule Release Bump: -0.06 wins

Frankly, the San Francisco 49ers were the biggest losers last night. From Weeks 7 through 13, they'll face four teams coming off their bye.

That's bad enough. It's the largest number of any team in the league.

But the teams getting that rest relief? The Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, and Buffalo Bills.

Enjoy that middle finger headed your direction, San Francisco.

The reason the 49ers aren't lower is that they're so dang good. My model still has them favored by at least 3.5 in three of those four games, the one exception being the road trip to Buffalo. That game is their lowest win probability of the entire year, by my numbers.

This adds to an already difficult schedule. They have the 10th toughest schedule, by my numbers, and the second toughest for any team with a double-digit win total (the Bills rank fourth).

Despite that, I still have value in the 49ers to go over 11.5 wins at even money. They were able to largely replace their defensive departures, and they still have their key skill guys in tact.

With that said, this isn't the time to bet them. Instead, you can wait until after they run that gauntlet of brutal games and see where things stand.

Entering Week 14, there's a chance the 49ers' odds to win the NFC are longer than their current mark of +250. It also gives you insurance should they trade Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk while safeguarding you in case they suffer a key injury before that time.

For now, just log this in the back of your brain. The 49ers are likely to be a buy candidate down the stretch thanks to their brutal middle-of-the-year schedule, a torture trap set by the schedule-makers last night.

Carolina Panthers

2024 FanDuel Win Total: 5.5 (Over +122)

Schedule Release Bump: -0.05 wins

This just seems harsh, man.

Two things dinged the Carolina Panthers last night.

First, they lost a home game. They face the New York Giants in Munich. That was previously their most winnable game on the schedule, so losing win equity there hurts.

Second, they gained very little with their bye. They face the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead following their Week 11 bye. Considering my model now has the Panthers as 10.6-point underdogs there, they went from having low win odds to having a-little-less-low win odds.

The Panthers have done some nice things this offseason, trying to build up the infrastructure around Bryce Young. That's what they should be doing. But my model has them at 4.9 wins, and with their win total at 5.5, they're firmly a stayaway despite those moves.

Other Losers

Philadelphia Eagles -0.05 wins

Minnesota Vikings: -0.04 wins

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.