Australian Open Men's Semifinals Betting Guide: Thursday 1/25/24

The Australian Open is into the semifinals, and we should be treated to some fantastic matches in the final days.

What better way to get in on the action than by making wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see where we can find betting value in the men's semifinals.

Australian Open Best Bets

Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner

Over 39.5 Total Match Games (-118)
Sinner ML (+172)
Sinner Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+265)

This is the match most were hoping to see from this half of the draw, and at least on paper, we have the makings of a classic.

The fact that Jannik Sinner isn't a bigger underdog to 10-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic is a testament to how much his stock has risen dating back to the end of last season. Since the beginning of August, Sinner not only won three hard courts titles (Canada, Beijing, and Vienna), but he defeated Djokovic in two out of three matches between the ATP Tour Finals and Davis Cup in November.

Over the last 52 weeks, Sinner has a 40-7 record on this surface (85%), which includes going 12-3 versus top-10 opponents and 9-3 against top-5 players.

Of course, beating arguably the best to ever play the game in a best-of-five match is no joke, and outside of perhaps Carlos Alcaraz, we've yet to see another player from this next generation demonstrate that they can consistently go toe to toe with Djokovic in majors. It's not like Sinner has much experience at this stage of Grand Slams, either, as it's just his second major semifinal.

But maybe, just maybe, it's the 22-year-old's time. He hasn't dropped a set all tournament, and he's beaten three straight seeded players in the process, most recently taking out World No. 5 Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals.

On the other hand, Djokovic hasn't been nearly as efficient, going four sets in three of his five matches. Taylor Fritz did him no favors in the quarters, forcing Djokovic to play three hours and 45 minutes to secure the victory.

Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings view this matchup as practically a pick 'em, further giving us confidence in backing Sinner. Going by their numbers, the Italian has a 48.7% win probability, whereas his implied odds are just 36.8% at +172.

While I really like the value we're getting from the underdog, I can understand being wary of betting against Novak, too. If that's the case, the safer route is betting the over on total match games because, if nothing else, this encounter should go at least four sets in either direction.

Likewise, if Sinner does pull off the upset, it's a stretch to think Djokovic just rolls over and loses in straight sets. Therefore, picking Sinner to win the match with both players grabbing a set is also intriguing at +265.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev

Medvedev -1.5 Games (-125)
Over 40.5 Total Match Games (-122)
Medvedev Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+154)

Neither of these players has had a particularly easy road to get here, with multiple five-setters significantly bumping up their total court time.

But Alexander Zverev is coming off a huge win over Alcaraz, which has to be a huge confidence booster for someone who's struggled against elite competition in majors. Entering the Australian Open, Zverev was 2-14 against top-10 players and 0-10 facing top-5 opponents at Grand Slams.

Despite the monumental victory for Zverev, Daniil Medvedev is probably one of the last guys he wants to see across the net. Going back to 2020, Medvedev has won 9 of their last 11 matches, and the Russian went 5-1 in their six 2023 meetings.

Medvedev's recent record on hard courts rivals that of the aforementioned Sinner, too, going 44-10 (81%) across the last 52 weeks. While Zverev is no slouch on the surface, his 28-14 record over that span (67%) pales in comparison.

Tennis Abstract's projections see Medvedev winning this match 65.4% of the time. As a -146 favorite (59.4% implied odds), there's some value on the moneyline, but backing Medvedev to cover the slight spread gives us more bang for our buck.

However, anyone who takes out a player like Alcaraz is dangerous, so I'm not expecting this to be a walk in the park for Medvedev, either. Much like the previous matchup, picking the over on total match games feels like the most straightforward way to wager on a duel that could go the distance.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.