Australian Open Men's Final Betting Guide: Saturday 1/27/24

The Australian Open wraps up this weekend with the finals in men's and women's singles.

What better way to get in on the action than by making wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see where we can find betting value in the men's title match.

Australian Open Best Bets

Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev

Over 37.5 Total Match Games (-120)
Sinner Wins the Match and Both Players Win a Set (+132)

With Jannik Sinner slaying the beast that is Novak Djokovic, the stage is set for him to grab his first Grand Slam title. He's dropped one set all tournament despite going through four straight seeded players, including the most accomplished player ever at this event.

On the other hand, Daniil Medvedev has needed to grind out three five-setters to get to the final, two of which have come in the last two rounds against top-10 players Hubert Hurkacz and Alexander Zverev. There's no question that Sinner will be the fresher of the two.

Sinner has also defeated Medvedev in each of their last three meetings, all of which came on hard courts in the latter stages of 2023.

Still, I can't help but think that this won't be a walk in the park for Sinner.

For one thing, despite those recent losses, Medvedev still leads this head-to-head 6-3. Given that Sinner is just 22 years old and made great strides toward the end of last season, we probably shouldn't read too much into his early history against Medvedev, but two of the Russian's wins came in early 2023, and all three of the losses that followed were tightly contested battles, with two needing a deciding third set.

This is also Medvedev's preferred surface, as he's won 82% of his hard court matches over the last 52 weeks. Only Sinner (85%) and Djokovic have higher win percentages on the surface in that sample.

Nerves shouldn't be an issue for Daniil, either. He's a former major champion (2021 US Open), and this will be his sixth Grand Slam final appearance. In contrast, Sinner is in his first-ever major title match, and the pressure will be on him as the betting favorite.

Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings show Sinner winning this 66.5% of the time, and given that difference in court time, he's well-positioned to close the deal. However, there isn't any value backing Sinner as a -290 favorite, and Medvedev is a dangerous enough opponent that messing with the game spread could be dicey.

Medvedev should be able to pick up at least a set versus Sinner, and I wouldn't be shocked if we're treated to at least one tiebreak, something that's occurred in all three of their last head-to-heads. With that in mind, the over on total match games feels like a good play, and backing the Italian to win the match while dropping a set is a way to get some value from a Sinner victory.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.