Australian Open Men's Championship Odds: Can Anyone Dethrone Novak Djokovic?

The beginning of a new year means the first Grand Slam of the tennis season is right around the corner. The Australian Open begins on Sunday, January 14th, and Grand Slams Betting Odds are already up on FanDuel Sportsbook.

How do the odds shake out for this year's field? Let's take a look at how the top contenders stack up on the men's side.

Men's Singles Championship Odds

Novak Djokovic (-110)

At first glance, it's kind of insane that Novak Djokovic is -110 to lift the Australian Open trophy -- this essentially suggests there's a better than 50/50 chance he wins seven straight matches -- but that's what happens when you've won the event a record 10 times and continue to dominate the sport.

This also isn't far off from what we saw entering last year's US Open when he was +110 to win -- and win is exactly what he did in securing his historic 24th Grand Slam title.

Over the last three seasons, Novak has reached the finals in nine of the 10 majors he's competed in, winning seven of them.

At the Australian Open specifically, he has a career record of 89-8 (92% win percentage) and has lost just three times dating back to 2011. He enters the event on a 28-match Australian Open win streak, too.

In 2023, the World No. 1 went 38-3 (93%) on hard courts, and six of his seven titles came on that surface. Simply, there's a good reason Djokovic is the comfortable favorite.

Still, Djokovic isn't invincible. He already took his first loss of 2024 after falling in straight sets to Alex de Minaur in the United Cup, and perhaps of greater concern, he dealt with a nagging wrist injury at that tournament. While he downplayed the issue, it's a reminder that health is as important as anything else to make a deep run at a Grand Slam.

With Rafael Nadal's comeback attempt already hitting a snag -- he withdrew from the tournament due to injury -- others will need to step up to slow Djokovic's run of dominance. And the reality is that you can probably count on one hand the number of competitors who have any realistic shot of besting Novak in a best-of-five format.

Carlos Alcaraz (+310)

There's no question that if someone is going to knock Djokovic out at one of his best tournaments, it's Carlos Alcaraz.

Alcaraz already pulled that trick once by stunning Novak in an epic 2023 Wimbledon final (1-6, 7-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-4) to win his second career Grand Slam title.

Djokovic has since won the last two matches against Alcaraz -- both on hard courts -- but one was yet another thriller, as the Serbian needed to go the distance over nearly four hours to beat Alcaraz in the 2023 Cincinnati final (5-7, 7-6, 7-6).

Overall, Novak now leads their head-to-head 3-2, but it's abundantly clear that Alcaraz can hang with Djokovic on any surface, and at just 20 years old, he's going to get only better.

According to Tennis Abstract, Alcaraz has the ATP Tour's third-best surface-blended Elo rating on hard courts, sitting roughly 100 points behind Djokovic's leading mark (100 points implies a 64% win probability).

That might seem a little low from arguably Djokovic's top challenger, but Alcaraz stumbled down the stretch following last year's US Open, likely docking him some points. Entering the US Open, these two were projected as near equals on hard courts by Tennis Abstract, which is probably closer to how we should view them.

Alcaraz missed last year's Australian Open due to injury and has actually played just twice at the event, going 3-2 from 2021-22. That might not inspire confidence, but Alcaraz has quickly been on the rise since late 2022, reaching at least the semifinals in each of his last four Grand Slam appearances and winning both his major titles over that span.

Jannik Sinner (+700)

While Alcaraz is an intriguing player to back, the best value may very well be Jannik Sinner. Sinner's yet to even make it to a Grand Slam final, but he made great strides in 2023, potentially opening the door for a breakthrough campaign.

Last year, he appeared in his first Grand Slam semifinal (Wimbledon) and won four hard courts titles, including his first Masters 1000 (Toronto). Sinner also made it to the ATP Finals title match before ultimately losing to -- you guessed it -- Djokovic.

In all, Sinner's accomplishments earned him a nod as Most Improved Player of the Year, and he's at the highest ranking of his career (No. 4).

But what could be the most crucial part of Jannik's rise is that he defeated Djokovic twice at the end of 2023, his first two wins in their head-to-head (Djokovic leads 4-2). Perhaps nearly as importantly, Sinner also bested Alcaraz in their last two matches and now leads that head-to-head (4-3).

Tennis Abstract ranks Sinner just barely behind Djokovic in surface-blended Elo rating entering Australia, a testament to how strong he finished last season. Hard courts have always been his best surface, too, and he amassed a 45-9 record (83%) in those matches last year.

Despite all the positives, siding with the 22-year-old is a bet that he's able to take the next step in Grand Slams, which is hardly guaranteed. However, that's baked into these odds, which is what makes Sinner worth considering.

Other Notables

Daniil Medvedev (+1200) - Medvedev's a two-time Australian Open finalist and won the US Open final over Djokovic in 2021. He's always a threat on hard courts. But it's telling that he has the fourth-shortest odds, yet we're already into four-digit territory. Since beating Novak in that final, Medvedev has since gone 1-5 against him, most recently losing in straight sets at last year's US Open championship match.

Alexander Zverev (+2700) - Zverev was bounced in the second round of the Australian Open in 2023 but reached the semis in 2020 and quarters in 2021. He's also a former US Open finalist (2020) and made that event's quarterfinals last season. He's coming off a successful United Cup this month, going 4-1 in singles and helping Germany win the title.

Grigor Dimitrov (+4800) - Dimitrov is fresh off winning Brisbane, which is his first singles title since 2017. However, he hasn't made the quarters of a Grand Slam since the 2021 Australian Open and has a woeful 1-12 record versus Djokovic.

Andrey Rublev (+6000) - Rublev always ranks well when it comes to Elo ratings, but he can't get over the hump in majors. He's 0-9 in Grand Slam quarterfinals.

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