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Auston Matthews Is a Slight Favorite in a Tightly Contested Hart Trophy Race

Scott Edwards Jr.
Scott Edwards Jr.•@ScottEdwardsJr

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The final stretch of the 2023-24 NHL season has arrived, and the race for the Hart Trophy is a great award race to follow.

With around 20 games to go, a four-man race has broken out for the Hart Trophy, and the market is wide-open, with no player holding odds shorter than +190.

Let's dive into the Hart Trophy odds via the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Hart Trophy Odds

Player
Hart Trophy Odds
Auston Matthews+190
Nathan MacKinnon+210
Nikita Kucherov+260
Connor McDavid+380

Auston Matthews, Maple Leafs (+190)

What a season it's been for Auston Matthews. His recent surge has pushed him to being the new favorite for the Hart Trophy, and he may not look back from here with the way he's playing.

The star of the Toronto Maple Leafs has been on a tear this season. Through 57 games, he's scored a stunning 52 goals and is well on his way to his second 60-goal season and potentially his first 70-goal effort. It's his elite goalscoring that has pushed him to the top of the odds, and it's going to be what controls this award from here on out. If he hits that 70-goal marker, then the award is almost surely his. He's listed at -125 odds to get to 70-plus goals, per the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The last time a player scored 70 goals in an NHL season was all the way back in the 1992-93 campaign, when Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny potted 76 goals each. Matthews might join that group and turn in a truly historic season.

Matthews is currently averaging 0.912 goals per game, a blistering pace that has him on track to finish with 73.87 goals if he plays every game for the remainder of the year. I'll say it again -- if Matthews hits that 70-goal milestone, the MVP is likely going to be his. This could be a season we haven't seen in decades.

Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche (+210)

The favorite for the Hart Trophy throughout the middle of the year was Nathan MacKinnon, and he still has a great shot.

MacKinnon has pushed the Colorado Avalanche forward through his pure dominance on the ice. He's got 35 goals, 63 assists, and 98 points -- with the assists ranking third in the league and the points ranking second. He's trailing Nikita Kucherov in the hunt for the Art Ross Trophy, sitting five points back of the lead and holding +210 odds to win the Art Ross Trophy.

Even so, MacKinnon has shown his importance for the Avalanche, and it could come down to the points tally between MacKinnon and Kucherov. Between those two, an interesting dynamic is that the Avalanche and Tampa Bay Lightning are in much different spots heading into the playoffs. The Avalanche are earmarked for the postseason while the Lightning are fighting for a wild card spot, which could lead to MacKinnon getting a slight rest at some point.

A dominant close to the season can give MacKinnon this award -- which would be his first Hart Trophy -- but he's chasing Kucherov in points and the potential history of Matthews' season.

Nikita Kucherov, Lightning (+260)

A return to greatness for Kucherov is what the NHL has seen this season, and he very well could be rewarded with his second Hart Trophy as a result.

Kucherov has arguably been the best overall player in hockey in 2023-24. It's resulted in top-tier numbers in every major category, including an NHL lead with 103 points -- five more than the next-best (MacKinnon). Kucherov was the first -- and only (as of this writing) -- player to reach the 100-point plateau, which has to count for something.

Overall, he's second in assists with 65 and tied for third with 38 goals. It's been a stellar campaign from him, one that almost feels like it would be a near lock to win the Hart Trophy most years -- but that's just how good the league is this season.

When Kucherov last won the Hart Trophy in the 2018-19 season, he finished with 128 points. He's on track to finish this season with 139.32. If he maintains this pace and the Lightning make the playoffs, he'll have a superb case for the award and is an intriguing bet at these +260 odds.

Connor McDavid, Oilers (+380)

Never count out Connor McDavid when it comes to the Hart Trophy. Never.

The reigning MVP has been sensational once again this season despite taking on a role that features him shouldering more defensive responsibility under head coach Kris Knoblauch.

After scoring a league-high 64 goals last season, McDavid's numbers this year certainly leave a lot to be desired. He's scored just 21 goals through 54 games.

Now, he's played six fewer games than both Kucherov and MacKinnon but is third in points with 91 thanks to the league-leading 70 assists. One has to wonder where he will be in terms of points when he reaches that 60-game mark, because, ultimately, he isn't too far behind.

Still, the only way I see McDavid winning the Hart Trophy this year is if he goes on a surge similar to that of Matthews' these last few weeks. He's certainly capable of it, too.

While he's McDavid, and that means something in this sport, voter fatigue is always a reality, especially with other players outperforming him this year.

It's likely better to look elsewhere if you want to place a bet in this market.


Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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