American League Rookie of the Year Odds: Gunnar Henderson Is Stating His Case

We're well into the MLB season at this point, and some things are starting to take shape. This includes the betting odds for the major awards.

Today, let's look at the American League Rookie of the Year odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

It's still a fairly wide-open race for this award, and there are a few interesting players who are in contention.

Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers

Josh Jung got a call-up from the Texas Rangers last season and struggled to adjust to the big leagues. It's safe to say he's done a better job of handling MLB pitching this season.

Jung struck out way too much in his stint in the majors last year -- 38.2% of the time to be exact. He's lowered that to 25.7% this year. He has the third-highest weighted on-base average (wOBA) and fifth-highest weighted runs created plus (wRC+) among AL rookies.

Sporting the highest WAR among players who are in the top five in odds for this award, Jung definitely has a case. He's not a lock by any means, though, and there are other players we should pay attention to.

Masataka Yoshida, OF, Boston Red Sox

It's not often you see a rookie making $18 million a season, but that's what the Boston Red Sox paid to pry Masataka Yoshida away from Japan. He's made a fairly smooth transition to American baseball since coming over.

Yoshida has the third-highest wOBA among rookies and the seventh-best wRC+. He has struck out at just a 10.7% rate, the fifth-best among all players in baseball.

Something working against Yoshida is his age and previous professional experience. This seemed to be a reason that Hideki Matsui did not win the award in 2003, when he easily could have. Yoshida is the same age as Matsui was back then, and this could prove to be a knock against the Boston outfielder.

If the voters don't consider that a factor when making their decision, Yoshida could be the player to walk away with the Rookie of the Year award in 2023.

Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Baltimore Orioles

Gunnar Henderson was ranked as the top prospect in baseball coming into the season, and he's done well living up to the hype. Now starring for an exciting Baltimore Orioles team, Henderson should get plenty of attention if the O's continue to do well.

One of Henderson's best tools as a prospect was his power. It has translated to the majors this season, as his .230 isolated slugging percentage (ISO) is third among AL rookies. His Statcast data is promising, too, as his hard-hit rate is 51.7% and he is getting the barrel of the bat on the ball 14.2% of the time.

He's really turned it on of late, racking up a monster .639 wOBA and 65.2% hard-hit rate in June.

Henderson is as good of a candidate as Jung and Yoshida are and could have a favorable narrative working for him if he helps Baltimore return to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. He's fifth among AL rookies in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for hitters, per FanGraphs, and he's not far behind the leaders.

Hunter Brown, SP, Houston Astros

The only pitcher among those with the shortest odds to win AL Rookie of the Year is Hunter Brown. His numbers are impressive regardless of how many years he's played in the majors.

Brown is doing a lot of things we value in a pitcher in the modern game. He is striking out batters at a 27.1% rate. He's also getting a ton of ground balls, as 56.3% of the batted balls he allows are on the ground. This has resulted in the 10th-best fielding independent pitching (FIP) in the American League -- among all players, not rookies.

Looking at Fangraphs' WAR, Brown's ranks higher than the likes of Shane McClanahan, Gerrit Cole and Shohei Ohtani (pitching only for Ohtani). Only two AL rookie hitters have a better WAR than Brown.

With not much separating these top-four favorites, taking a shot on the Brown makes a lot of sense. Nothing in his profile screams that regression is coming, and he could make a name for himself when the award voting occurs as a top-notch pitcher for one of baseball's best teams.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.