3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 16
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
NFL Prop Bets Week 16
Justin Jefferson Over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
In his first full game since coming off IR, Justin Jefferson saw plenty of looks last week, notching 10 targets on 33 Nick Mullens pass attempts and turning that volume into 7 grabs for 84 yards. He played 96% of the snaps, too, so all in all, Jefferson is back to doing what he usually does.
What isn't back to normal, however, is his receiving yards prop. Jefferson's receiving yards prop is usually set in the 90s, and while the absence of Kirk Cousins might be a valid reason for this prop to be lower than usual, Jefferson's results and role last week are encouraging for his chances of having a big day this Sunday against a beatable Detroit Lions secondary.
The Lions have been a pass-funnel D this year, ranking seventh-best against the run -- per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics -- and fifth-worst versus the pass. Wideouts have been finding success against the Lions of late, with both Jerry Jeudy (74 yards) and Courtland Sutton (71) having nice outings a week ago and D.J. Moore (68), Chris Olave (119) and Christian Watson (94) all having pretty good yardage days against Detroit in the successive weeks before that.
Jefferson is a level above all those guys, and with his electric big-play ability, the Minnesota Vikings' star can get to this over in a hurry.
The game environment should help, too. Not only is the game going to be indoors, but the high total (46.5) and tight spread (DET -3.0) should ensure that the Vikings' offense has to keep its foot on the gas pedal. Plus, Jefferson has a staggering track record indoors, posting an average of 108.0 receiving yards per game across 34 dome games, including a clip of 102.9 receiving yards per game at home in his career (28 games).
numberFire's model projects Jefferson to finish with 84.6 receiving yards. While that projection is good enough for the over to cash, I'm more bullish on Jefferson than numberFire is and am awfully intrigued by Jefferson 90+ receiving yards (+110) and Jefferson 100+ receiving yards (+154).
In the weekly specials market, I also don't mind the Vikings at +1800 to be Sunday's highest scoring team.
Bijan Robinson Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Bijan Robinson had a game to forget last week, mustering a laughably low 14 total yards on eight touches and losing a key fumble in a loss at the Carolina Panthers. It was his worst game as a pro.
I think Bijan bounces back this week.
For one, he won't have to worry about the weather as the Atlanta Falcons will be indoors at home. The conditions in Carolina last week were obviously a major hindrance to the offenses. He also has a friendly matchup this week against the Indianapolis Colts, one that can help him get at least 20 receiving yards, as the Colts give up the fifth-most receiving yards per game to running backs (41.6).
You may be thinking "didn't Bijan just completely flop in a dream matchup against the Panthers?" and you're not totally wrong. But the aforementioned weather was a big factor, and Carolina actually doesn't give up much production to RBs in the passing game, holding running backs to only 20.9 receiving yards per game, the second-fewest.
Prior to the dud a week ago, Robinson had racked up receiving yardage totals of 54, 26 and 32 over the three previous games. Not counting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game where Bijan got only one touch due to an illness, the rookie has put up at least 20 receiving yards in 8 of 13 games. For the year, he's averaging 23.1 receiving yards per game, including 32.0 receiving yards per game over seven home contests.
I think a lot of signs point to the over, and numberFire falls in line, forecasting Bijan for 26.3 receiving yards.
Jordan Love Under 223.5 Passing Yards (-114)
I'll be honest -- when I first saw Jordan Love's passing yards prop at 223.5 yards, it screamed over to me. He's gone over this line in seven of his last eight games and has a soft matchup at Carolina.
But the more I looked into it, the more appealing the under became.
For starters, the matchup isn't as favorable as I assumed it was. The Green Bay Packers being a 4.5-point road favorite could lead to a run-heavy attack. On top of that, Carolina's defense has gotten a boost lately with the return of star corner Jaycee Horn. He's played 100% of the defensive snaps in two straight, and in those games, Carolina held Desmond Ridder to 115 passing yards and Derek Carr to 119 yards.
We can't put too much weight into a two-game sample, especially when one of the two games featured heavy rain, but the return of Horn definitely improves Carolina's personnel.
Something else that points toward the under is Love's home/road splits. Away from Lambeau this year, he's averaged 219.0 passing yards per game, compared to 262.1 yards per game at home.
There's also a chance Love is without both Christian Watson and Jayden Reed as neither was able to practice on Wednesday.
numberFire's model has Love at 219.3 passing yards this week, and the under is the side I want to be on.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.