3 NBA Player Prop Picks for Tuesday 11/19/24
The beauty of the NBA is you will never be short on prop-betting options for a given slate.
From points to steals and three-pointers, FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA odds are overflowing with possibilities. We're here to help you sift through it all.
Using FanDuel Research's daily NBA projections as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing on FanDuel.
Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Best NBA Player Props Today
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
Jrue Holiday Over 20.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-122)
Today's six-game NBA slate offers us one of the most exciting regular season matchups to date. The Cleveland Cavaliers, who have posted a stunning 15-0 record (tied for second-best in NBA history), will look to maintain perfection against the Boston Celtics, a team that has +260 NBA Finals odds.
As props go, I want to check in on Jrue Holiday. Holiday is averaging 20.7 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA). He's logged at least 20 PRA in 8 of his last 10 games.
Holiday and the Celtics have played in their fair share of blowouts. Boston has won four games by 15 or more points, which has at times limited the starters. The Celtics (24th) also operate at a pretty slow pace and have played six games against fellow bottom 10 paced teams. We won't be getting any of that tonight. Not only does a 5.5-point spread suggest little risk for a blowout, but a whopping 236.0 over/under is the highest on today's slate.
The Cavs are running at the league's seventh-fastest pace, which helps explain the high game total. The pace-up nature of this contest should give everyone on Boston a bump, including Holiday. I'm even more excited about his matchup.
Jrue Holiday - Pts + Reb + Ast
This season, Holiday has logged 26 PRA against the New York Knicks, 28 and 20 PRA in two games against the Milwaukee Bucks, and 23 PRA in a competition against the Golden State Warriors. He shows up in Boston's most important games, and I expect tonight to be no different.
To add, Jrue is accumulating 23.8 PRA at TD Garden. Cleveland, meanwhile, is letting up the 8th-most points, 9th-most assists, and 12th-most rebounds to opposing guards. Our NBA projections have Jrue down for 21.5 PRA in this one.
New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic Over 44.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-113)
Luka Doncic (knee) is questionable for tonight's game against the New Orleans Pelicans. If he is ruled a full go, I like him to exceed 44.5 PRA.
Doncic is averaging 43.8 PRA, a tad below where his prop is set for tonight. However, he's due for some pretty major regression across all stat categories. Luka is underperforming his long-term averages in shooting efficiency, rebound conversion, and assist conversion. Doncic's expected output based on those long-term averages entails 31.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 8.6 assists per game -- good for 48.6 PRA, well above where his prop is set for tonight.
Luka Doncic - Pts + Reb + Ast
Despite being a regression candidate, Doncic has still cleared 44.5 PRA in 53.8% of games this season and missed by the hook once. Tonight's matchup against the Pelicans could get him where he needs to be. New Orleans comes in with the third-worst defensive rating in the NBA, and we know Luka loves to see a bad defense coming his way.
Doncic has played six games against teams that fare in the bottom 12 of defensive rating. He logged 53, 47, 47, 56, 54, and 32 PRA in these contests. Not only is he averaging a massive 48.2 PRA in this split, but he went for at least 47 PRA in all but one of those six games. Plus, that 32 PRA performance was thanks to an appallingly bad 5-for-22 night from the field, including a 1-for-9 performance from behind the arc. Our projections expect Luka to net 46.8 PRA tonight.
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers
Collin Sexton Over 19.5 Pts + Ast (-106)
Collin Sexton is averaging 18.5 combined points and assists (PA) this season, but that doesn't tell the whole story.
The Utah Jazz were figuring out their rotations early on this season, which kept Sexton out of the starting lineup for a couple of games. He has since acted as a full-time starter. In Sexton's most recent outing, he was limited to 20 minutes after being called for an uncharacteristic fourth foul mere minutes into the third quarter. Our projections have Sexton down to log 28 minutes in this one, which is in line with what he's been playing as a starter.
In games where Sexton has played at least 25 minutes, he is averaging 20.9 PA. He tallied at least 19 PA in 8 out of 10 games in this split. Sexton is also a regression candidate, netting -0.5 points and -0.4 assists above expectation this year.
Collin Sexton - Pts + Ast
The Jazz will take on the Los Angeles Lakers, even more reason to be high on Sexton. The Jazz (29th) and Lakers (25th) each have terrible defensive ratings and both groups rank in the top 16 of pace, leaving us with a meaty 235.0 over/under. The Lakers' poor defensive unit has led to them surrendering the seventh-most points and third-most assists per game. In turn, our projections are forecasting 21.9 PA from Sexton this evening.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.