3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 10/25/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Isaiah Stewart Over 16.5 Pts + Reb (+102)

The Detroit Pistons are projected to be one of the worst teams in basketball this year, but that doesn't mean we can't find great value in their player props.

Enter Isaiah Stewart, whose prop line for Detroit's season opener is noticeably lower than how we've seen him perform in the past.

Last season, Stewart averaged 11.3 points and 8.6 rebounds on 28.3 minutes of play per game. This season, he will return at the starting forward/center position for the Pistons, alongside big man Jalen Duren.

Duren started less than half of Detroit games last season, so this is somewhat of a fresh starting lineup. But that shouldn't affect Stewart's productivity -- he averaged 11.7 points and 8.1 rebounds in games where he started alongside Duren last season.

The Pistons will play the Miami Heat, who were a solid rebounding team last year but had problem areas that Stewart can exploit.

Miami finished last season with the fifth-highest opponent putback scoring frequency -- this opens up a spot where Stewart could not only grab a rebound but also score, which is perfect for this prop. The Heat also gave up the fourth-highest and-one rate, so we could see Stewart spend some time at the free-throw line following these potential putbacks.

Stewart scores most of his points in the paint -- Miami ranked 17th last year in paint points allowed to forwards and 14th in paint points allowed to centers. Though the Heat aren't bad in regard, it's nice to know that they are not a dominant defensive team down low.

The Pistons are a fairly short-staffed team as it is, but they also just lost their leading scorer from last season, Bojan Bogdanovic, to an injury. Even if Bogdanovic was playing tonight, I'd still like Stewart's chances to grab a combined 17 points and rebounds, but a lack of depth never hurts when it comes to player usage.

Jakob Poeltl Over 10.5 Points (-113)

Jakob Poeltl is another player who I believe comes into this season undervalued.

Last year, Poeltl averaged 12.5 points per game on 26.5 minutes. Based on this and Poeltl's status as the starting center for the Toronto Raptors, we can reasonably deduce that he should see about that same time on the court tonight, give or take. numberFire projects him for 29.6 minutes.

Last season, Poeltl played at least 27 minutes in 34 games, and he scored 11-plus points in 26 of those 34 games. If his projected minutes total holds up tonight, then historically, he would clear this prop 76.5% of the time, which is quite the spike from the implied probability on this prop (53.1%).

The Minnesota Timberwolves don't exactly stand in the way between Poeltl and the basket -- last season, they ranked seventh in points allowed to centers.

Minnesota also ranked ninth in pick-and-roll points allowed to the roll man while giving up the fifth-highest effective field goal percentage to players in that split. This pairs nicely with Poeltl, who ranked 10th last season in points scored off the pick-and-roll.

He clocked out last season with the ninth-highest field goal percentage (62.9%) in the league, and I like his chances to score 11 points tonight.

Mitchell Robinson to Record A Double-Double (+500)

The odds show that Mitchell Robinson recording a double-double in the New York Knicks' season opener is a long-shot, but I think history proves that Robinson has a better chance of hitting this mark than the market gives him credit for.

Last season, Robinson averaged 7.4 points and 9.4 rebounds per game, but when he finds his spots, he can make a bigger impact on the stat sheet.

He recorded 13 double-doubles in 59 games last season (22.0% of games) -- which may not seem like a lot but is a higher percentage than the implied probability for tonight -- and I think this matchup against the Boston Celtics is an advantageous one as far as Robinson's numbers are concerned.

Last season, the Celtics gave up the fifth-most defensive rebounds -- Robinson took advantage of this in matchups against Boston last year, averaging 13.5 rebounds (11.5 rebounds if you remove OT stats).

Robinson scores 86.4% of his points in the paint. Boston ranked 15th in paint points allowed to centers last year and 24th in pain points allowed to forwards. Plus, Boston is now without Robert Williams, who was a big piece of their interior D last season.

The Celtics also held the sixth-highest defensive and-one frequency off of putbacks, which is great news for Robinson bettors.

Last year, Robinson ranked second (behind only Anthony Davis) in putback points per game (among players who played 55 or more games) -- which means he's making a killing on offensive boards and turning those offensive rebounds into points.

Given Boston's propensity to foul in these situations, we could also see Robinson rack up some points at the free-throw line. Even though Robinson was a terrible foul shooter last season (48.4%), it does create more opportunity for him come bonus time, which we could see tonight given the 3.5-point game spread.

I'd be remiss if I failed to mention Boston's offseason acquisition of Kristaps Porzingis, which will shake up how things look for the Celtics on the defensive end. But, even still, Robinson recorded a double-double in three out of four games against either the Celtics or Porzingis last season, and I am keen on siding with him tonight at these odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.