3 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 5/22/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Texas Rangers at Philadelphia Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET

Phillies Moneyline (-126)

Genuinely, there is a series going on right now that could be a potential World Series preview. At Citizens Bank Park, the Texas Rangers (24-25) and Philadelphia Phillies (35-14) will play their second bid of a three-game set.

On Tuesday, we saw these same sides compete in a fierce pitching duel. Southpaw Ranger Suarez -- behind 10 strikeouts -- powered Philadelphia to a 5-2 victory. Throughout the evening, Texas was a dismal 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position.

As for Wednesday, we are scheduled to see starters Dane Dunning and Taijuan Walker. Dunning owns a strong 3.71 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) right now, but he's also tagged with a career-high 48.9% Statcast hard-hit rate. Across the way, Walker has struggled, currently holding a 4.80 SIERA.

In this battle, I have more faith in the Phillies' lineup to take care of business when opportunities arise. The offense for Philadelphia boasts the fifth-highest OPS in MLB at .751. The Rangers can swing it, as well, but their team OPS is a much lower .704. When I consider how hot the Phillies have been (winners in 20 of their past 24 outings), I like their home moneyline at these -126 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

ESPN Analytics gives the Phillies a 59.5% chance at victory against Texas. These -126 odds imply just a 55.75% chance. I'll be backing the Phils to get another W.

Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. ET

Over 8.5 Runs (-105)

North of the border, there is an on-going series between the Toronto Blue Jays (21-26) and Chicago White Sox (15-34). Truthfully, this is a clash of last-place teams, as the Jays round out the AL East while the Sox are dead last in the AL Central.

Last night, Chicago blanked Toronto, 5-0, at Rogers Centre. However, I think there is potential on Wednesday for these clubs to combine for over 8.5 runs (-105 odds).

The projected starters on international soil this evening are Chris Bassitt and rookie Nick Nastrini. Transparently, both arms have labored arduously in 2024. The rook shows a 5.77 SIERA and 56.0% fly-ball rate. For Bassitt, his current 40.8% Statcast hard-contact rate likely won't fare well at his home stadium.

Rogers Centre is an all-encompassing cement donut that even has the option of a retractable roof. As a known hitter's venue, Toronto's ballpark carries a 105 home run Park Factor score. Simply, I doubt the settings play well for two struggling starting pitchers.

At numberFire, the MLB game projections offer support for over 8.5 runs. Their model shows an estimated score of 5.24-3.80 to the Jays. That comes out to 9.04 total runs for Wednesday, and numberFire gives the over a 54.45% chance to win out.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Dodgers -1.5 (-140)

On Monday, we played a run-line wager in Arizona Diamondbacks (23-26) at Los Angeles Dodgers (33-18), and that worked out well. So, let's try the same approach on Wednesday.

Once again, I like Dodgers -1.5 (-140 odds) against Arizona.

The probable pitchers for this rubber match at Dodger Stadium are Ryne Nelson and Tyler Glasnow. Between those two, we've seen quite opposite campaigns. Glasnow has been razor sharp behind a 2.58 SIERA. On the other side, Nelson has been rocked for a 1.88 WHIP and 4.24 SIERA in 2024 while striking out just 16.3% of hitters.

With a heavily skewed pitching matchup in favor of the Dodgers, I trust in Los Angeles' potent offense to score enough to win by at least two runs. Right now, the Dodgers are scoring 5.14 runs per game, which is the second-best clip in baseball. From there, their 66 home runs as a team paces the Senior Circuit.

Being that Nelson is on the bump, I am looking at left-handed hitters Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman to lead the charge. Nelson is permitting 2.20 homers per nine to lefties so far in 2024.

If Glasnow does what he usually does, the Boys in Blue should cruise to victory tonight. After all, L.A. is sporting one of MLB's largest marks in average margin of victory (1.6).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.