3 MLB Best Bets for Saturday 8/3/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

Under 3.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (+100)

The Chicago White Sox have been playing games with Garrett Crochet due to a contract dispute, failing to allow him to reach the fifth inning in four straight. However, for as long as he's out there, he should shine.

Crochet's been arguably the best pitcher in baseball, according to a 2.47 expected ERA (xERA), .195 expected batting average allowed (xBA), and 34.6% strikeout rate that all rank 95th percentile or better across MLB. He'll have a soft matchup at the dish tonight when visiting the Minnesota Twins, who sport just a team 82 wRC+ against lefties over the past month.

However, Crochet is 6-8 in the win-loss column for a reason. Bailey Ober should also be able to shut down his offense, which has an ugly 58 wRC+, .114 ISO, and 26.8% K rate against righties over the past 30 days against right-handed pitching. Ober has found his form recently with at least 6.0 innings in each of his last seven appearances, and his season-long 3.43 xERA would be outstanding if not compared to Crochet's.

Both of these pitchers should have early-game success even as both squads sport a bottom-10 bullpen (by xFIP) over the last month. The overall game total is ambiguous, but the five-and-dive under seems awesome at plus money.

Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians

Orioles Moneyline (-118)

After an 8-4 loss on Friday, the Baltimore Orioles have the right split to get on track tonight with Zach Eflin toeing the slab.

The newly-acquired right-hander should be a solid fit in Baltimore, holding a steady 3.48 xERA while minimizing opponents' hard contact (36.2% rate allowed). More dominant outings could be ahead, per an elite 33.2% whiff rate.

Though the Cleveland Guardians don't whiff much in either split, they've really struggled to produce against orthodox pitchers in the past month. Their .646 team OPS in the split is second-worst in MLB during this time, and to make matters worse, they'll send struggling lefty Joey Cantillo to the bump to face the O's.

Cantillo's 8.10 ERA is actually hiding a worse xERA (10.44) through just 3.1 innings. He also allowed a .319 xBA and 50.0% rate of hard contact. Though the same is small, the Orioles are a brutal assignment for a southpaw to turn it around when looking at their 117 wRC+ over the past month of play.

At a near pick 'em, Baltimore profiles that have the advantage on both sides of the mound. numberFire projects them to win 64.4% of the time today, providing good value on these odds.

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

Padres Over 4.5 Runs (-115)

Here's your bet of the day. The San Diego Padres might have the best offensive outlook of the entire day yet sit at a pick 'em to notch five-plus runs.

San Diego draws Tanner Gordon of the Colorado Rockies with a bit of a sting in the tail after last night's 5-2 loss. Gordon has been a sitting duck on the mound if a 7.05 xERA, .343 xBA, and 3.52 homers per nine (HR/9) are any indication. This is 15.1 innings into a sample, and two of those stats are park-adjusted ones given he plays home games at Coors Field. No matter how you dice it, Gordon's been U-G-L-Y without an alibi.

On the flip side, the Friars have crushed posted an above-average .723 OPS against righties in the past month, so Gordon should be no issue. Plus, while the Colorado bullpen has been better of late, they still have the ninth-worst reliever xFIP over the past 30 days (4.19).

nF has San Diego forecasted for 4.74 median runs as a team on Saturday. I'd snatch this quickly, expecting the line to shift well beyond a pick as the day progresses.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.