3 MLB Best Bets for Monday 8/26/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

Under 8.5 Runs (-106)

The total for the Chicago Cubs against the Pittsburgh Pirates could be a tough cookie to crack. Models are sitting right around the line as numberFire's projections have the total at 8.44 while MasseyRatings has the total set at 8.5, as well. Both teams are in the bottom half of runs scored on the season. The answer for which side to take could be that simple.

Pitch usage is the first major bullet point for backing the under. Jameson Taillon is taking the mound for Chicago, and his most-used pitches are a four-seam fastball (31.1%), cutter (23.9%), sweeper (16.4%), and curveball (15.8%). The Pirates have struggled against breaking balls, sitting among the bottom four worst marks in runs above average against sweepers and curveballs. Pittsburgh is also outside the top half in runs above average when facing four-seam fastballs. Cutters could be the only worry with the Pirates touting the 10th-most runs above average against the pitch.

It's the same story for the Cubs against Mitch Keller. His pitches are led by a four-seam fastball (30.7%), sinker (22.6%), and sweeper (14.7%). Chicago is mediocre in runs above average when facing four seamers (15th-most) and sinkers (16th-most), and sweepers are a struggle with the Cubs holding the 6th-lowest mark against the tool.

Each starter has shown some good stuff in recent appearances too. For example, Keller posted a 1.90 xFIP in his most recent outing. Taillon hasn't been too shabby either with xFIPs of 3.88 and 3.43 over his last two starts.

The starters should be good enough for the under hit -- mainly thanks to pitch usage.

Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox

Tigers Over 5.5 Runs (+116)

The Detroit Tigers are rolling with a 10-3 record over their previous 13 contests. Run production has skyrocketed over their last five to the tune of 7.4 runs per game. It's been even higher against the Chicago White Sox, posting 9.0 runs per contest over the first three games of the four-contest series.

The Detroit moneyline is a bit shaky with rookie Ty Madden making his majors debut. Plus, numberFire's projections have a two out of five stars confidence level for Chicago to win outright. Going over 5.5 runs is shaping up to be the best Tigers line.

As previously mentioned, we know the run production has been there. Detroit has easily surpassed 5.5 runs during this series, but facing Davis Martin is a different challenge.

The second-year hurler is holding a 1.69 ERA over his last three appearances. Advanced stats also check out, for Martin posted xFIPs of 2.94 and 4.06 in his last two outings. Over 5.5 runs isn't as easy as we initially thought, but the Tigers are still excelling in the right areas for this matchup.

Starting with Martin's walk issues, he's currently on pace to be among the bottom 20% in walk rate (BB%). It's been a small sample size, though, with Martin making only four starts this season. Detroit could make Martin pay, for they are averaging 5.0 walks per contest this series compared to their season average of 2.8. This increases the likelihood for the Tigers to put runners into scoring position, and Detroit has the second-lowest mark in runners left in scoring position per game.

Adding to the evidence, the Tigers are among the top half in runs above average against sliders, cutters, and changeups -- three of Martin's four most-used pitches. Additionally, Detroit logged 1.6 homers per game over the last five (season average is only 1.0), and Martin finished in the bottom half of allowed hard-hit percentage in his last full season of play in 2022.

The Tigers have a long list of potential advantages for tonight's matchup, and the White Sox's bullpen probably won't fare much better with the league's second-highest ERA. The hot streak will likely continue for Detroit.

Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (+106)

Initially, backing a NRFI looks like the way to go for the Tampa Bay Rays-Seattle Mariners. Ryan Pepiot and Bryce Miller are two solid starts on the mound; Pepiot is carrying a 3.81 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 3.98 xFIP on the season while Miller has a 3.85 SIERA and 3.91 xFIP.

However, the Rays are vulnerable in the first inning. They tout the eighth-highest opponent NRFI while the Mariners' batting order is also in the top half of YRFI percentage. Pepiot has even struggled in the early going, surrendering at least one first inning run in three of his last four starts.

Seattle isn't the most dependable batting order, for they tout baseball's lowest batting average (.216). The Mariners are better against righties, though, carrying a .220 batting average and .298 wOBA compared to .206 and .286 when seeing southpaws.

The first three batters up to the plate for Seattle will likely be Luke Raley, Julio Rodriguez, and Cal Raleigh. Raley has three hits over his previous three games, Rodriguez is hitting .306 against four-seam fastballs -- Pepiot carries a 50.5% usage rate for this pitch -- and Raleigh hits above his season average against two of Pepiot's most-used tools (four-seam fastball and slider).

Most of this bet is riding on Seattle to score early as the Mariners' hold a much stronger chance of not allowing a run in the first. Seattle touts the second-highest opponent NRFI rate, and Miller has given up a first inning run in only one of his previous nine starts.

Considering Pepiot's recent struggles in the first paired with solid matchups for the top of Seattle's batting order, the YRFI still looks promising for tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.