3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 5/17/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Detroit Tigers at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

Tigers -1.5 (+114)

Quietly, the Detroit Tigers (21-22) have been a pretty scrappy team in 2024. On Friday, they'll hit the road to start a series with the Arizona Diamondbacks (21-23). This is an interleague series we don't see often. Of course, that will change under modern MLB scheduling.

To commence this three-game set in downtown Phoenix, the projected starters are Tarik Skubal and Ryne Nelson. Skubal has been Detroit's best arm this season, posting a 2.52 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) behind 11.02 K/9. As for Nelson, he is currently tagged with a mediocre 4.38 FIP.

In this pitching battle, I think the Tigers are in a favorable spot to cover the run line in Arizona. At FanDuel Sportsbook, Detroit -1.5 is at +114 odds, which carries a 46.7% implied probability. Conversely, the projections at numberFire yield a 51.79% chance for the Tigers to cover the run line.

Admittedly, the D-backs are the better offensive side between these two teams. Arizona has a .715 OPS, compared to Detroit at .655. But with Skubal on the bump, the Tigers have been fiercely competitive. He's made eight starts in 2024, and Motor City has won six of those outright. In half of those victories, the Tigers won by two or more runs.

Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Over 8.5 Runs (-112)

In Game 2 of a four-bid series, the Cincinnati Reds (19-25) and Los Angeles Dodgers (29-17) will clash at Chavez Ravine tonight. Cincinnati did well to take the opener, meaning the Dodgers have actually lost back-to-back games: shocker.

Yesterday, Elly De La Cruz managed to steal the show on Shohei Ohtani bobblehead night. The speedy infielder compiled four stolen bases on four attempts -- a personal single-game best -- to help the Reds win, 7-2. Moving on to Friday, I think we'll again see rampant offensive activity.

I like over 8.5 runs (-112 odds) tonight in Los Angeles. Notably, the Dodgers boast the MLB's best lineup, pacing all other teams in OPS (.778), wOBA (.342) and total runs scored (239). Meanwhile, Cincinnati is struggling from a batting-average perspective (.220), but their offense has improved as the Reds regain health. Dating back to May 9th, Cincy has produced an inflated 4.12 runs per game.

The probable pitchers for this clash in Southern California are Frankie Montas and James Paxton. Montas has struggled some since entering the National League this season, owning a 4.65 FIP. Across the way, Paxton is also in his first campaign on the Senior Circuit. Currently, Paxton's dismal 6.05 SIERA with the Dodgers would indicate he prefers pitching in the A.L.

The MLB game projections at numberFire show a 53.02% chance for over 8.5 runs to hit. That's the side I'm on.

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, 10:15 p.m. ET

F5 Result: Giants (+104)

In the "City by the Bay," the Colorado Rockies (15-28) are in Northern California to battle the San Francisco Giants (20-25). On the hill, Ryan Feltner versus lefty Kyle Harrison should make for an intense duel.

I respect both of these young arms, but Harrison has looked a little sharper in recent starts. The southpaw currently holds a 4.09 SIERA behind an 8.19 K/9 clip. Additionally, San Francisco has gone on to win each of the past six games in which Harrison was the starting pitcher.

Feltner (5.20 ERA) has surrendered 10 combined earned runs over his past three starts for Colorado. Throughout that span, he's notched one loss and two no-decisions. With this in mind, I believe the Giants are in an advantageous spot to be ahead on the scoreboard after the first five innings.

In FanDuel Sportsbook's three-way market for the first five innings result, the Giants are listed with +104 odds to be winning after five completed frames. Since the Giants are the home team, there's a chance that this ticket could cash before San Francisco takes their hacks in the bottom of the fifth.

Notably, the Rockies have won seven consecutive games. The Giants, back on May 8th, were actually the most recent team to defeat Colorado. Regardless, the team in purple has not done well versus left-handed pitching in 2024, showing a .675 team OPS in the split. Harrison should be a tough matchup for the Rox.

Rather than giving the Rockies a chance to come back late in the game (San Francisco's bullpen has a 4.90 ERA), I find better value in cutting this contest in half. With Harrison going, I like for the home side to be ahead by the time the sixth inning commences.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.