3 Best Correlated Same Game Parlay Bets for Super Bowl LIX Between the Chiefs and Eagles

When you're filling out a same game parlay -- or SGP -- you're telling yourself a story.

With a parlay, you need every leg to hit in order to win money. Thus, it's important to think through how well the various legs mesh together.

There is value sometimes in going with uncorrelated same game parlays, if you think the sportsbook will over-correct for the unlikelihood both events occur simultaneously. But for the most part, we want bets where if one leg hits, the others are more likely to hit, as well.

That's what we're going to do today. We're going to go through three separate assumptions and SGPs we could consider if those assumptions wind up being true.

Let's dig in and see what we can cook up based on FanDuel Sportsbook's Super Bowl betting odds as the Kansas City Chiefs battle the Philadelphia Eagles.

Best SGPs for Chiefs vs. Eagles in Super Bowl LIX

Assumption 1: The Eagles Are Undervalued

Leg 1: Eagles' Moneyline (+102)

Leg 2: Jalen Hurts Any Time Touchdown (-115)

Leg 3: Saquon Barkley Over 109.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

SGP Odds at Time of Publication: +330

When I run my spread and total predictions model, it has the Eagles as slight favorites in this game. That's primarily because it views the Eagles' offense as being underrated.

If I assume the model is correct, I can buy into that offense -- and the Eagles in general -- via the three legs outlined above.

The allure in Saquon Barkley's rushing prop when we assume the Eagles win should be obvious. He went over this mark in 9 of 15 games the Eagles won with Hurts playing the full game. Given his usage in must-win games, Barkley paired with the Eagles' moneyline makes tons of sense.

The Jalen Hurts any time touchdown bet gets included for two reasons: we're implying the Eagles score points here -- boosting the odds for a tush push tud -- and I think it's one of the more underrated props on the board straight up.

Hurts has scored a touchdown in 12 of 17 games this season and 35 of 53 games since the team started using the tush push. If the Eagles' offense performs as well as the model thinks they could, Hurts' odds of scoring should increase.

Basically, we're buying into the two key catalysts for most of their wins in the markets in which they benefit most if we assume they pull. itoff. I'm willing to do that at +330 odds.

Assumption 2: The Chiefs Are Undervalued

Leg 1: Chiefs' Moneyline (-120)

Leg 2: Total Over 48.5 (-110)

Leg 3: Patrick Mahomes Over 250.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Leg 4: Xavier Worthy Any Time Touchdown (+155)

SGP Odds at Time of Publication: +692

As mentioned above, my baseline model has the Eagles as slight favorites.

However, if I input the Chiefs' offensive numbers in the four games they've played with Marquise Brown, I have the Chiefs favored by 2.7 with the total at 52.8. Thus, I don't mind building out an SGP around that assumption, even if it runs fully counter to our first SGP.

In those four games with Brown, Patrick Mahomes has averaged 0.37 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. If this were his full-season mark, he'd rank second behind only Lamar Jackson. I have to regress that because a four-game sample isn't large enough, which is why I wind up having the Eagles favored, but Mahomes has been lights out.

While it's not enough to make it my full projection, I do think there is logic behind this. With Brown, the Chiefs have another viable pass-catcher, something they've lacked for long stretches this year. If you give Mahomes a decent cast, he can go nuclear, as he has shown in this sample and in previous seasons. This is also a stretch where the Chiefs have had Joe Thuney at left tackle, which has seemingly fixed their early-season offensive-line woes.

If I'm going to make an assumption around a four-game sample, I want reward for the risk I'm taking on. This SGP gives me that.

The Mahomes passing leg is due to efficiency. He has gone over 250.5 passing yards in only 2 of 4 games with Brown, but he had just 25 and 28 pass attempts in the two unders. His mark for this game is 36.5, and if he sniffs that -- with this level of efficiency -- he should be able to go over.

The Xavier Worthy aspect is due to the role he has had in this stretch. Across those four games, Worthy has 25.8% of the overall targets. More importantly for his any time touchdown odds, he has a 40.7% red-zone share, equating to 11 targets in addition to 4 red-zone rush attempts.

This has allowed Worthy to score in 3 of these 4 games, pushing his full-season mark to 9 of 18. Again, we're assuming here the Chiefs' offense cooks, and Worthy has looked like a prime beneficiary in that setup.

Assumption 3: Kareem Hunt Continues His Role as Lead Back

Leg 1: Kareem Hunt Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Leg 2: Isiah Pacheco Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Leg 3: Kareem Hunt Any Time Touchdown (+150)

SGP Odds at Time of Publication: +618

In the two playoff games, Kareem Hunt has out-played Isiah Pacheco, and it has led to an increased role. If that sticks, we should see value in these markets.

In those, Hunt has had snap rates of 48.0% and 55.6%, respectively. He had 17 carries for 64 yards in that latter game, actually showing a bit of juice and explosion.

Pacheco, meanwhile, had 5 carries in both for just 18 and 12 yards. He just hasn't had the same burst he showed before his leg injury, and the Chiefs have adjusted their usage of him accordingly.

Hunt's role has been best in the red zone, which is why we can tack on the any time touchdown bet. He has played 9 of 13 snaps within 12 yards of the end zone, according to Next Gen Stats, and 3 of 4 within 3 yards. This has helped Hunt score a touchdown in both games, and he has done so in four of seven overall since Pacheco's return. The payoff here is big enough for me to take on the risk that we see a talented Pacheco re-emerge as the lead back.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.