3 Best College Basketball Bets and Predictions for Friday 11/22/24
College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.
Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best College Basketball Picks
Jackson State Tigers at No. 9 Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky Over 95.5 Points (-120)
One of the most consistent bets of the early college basketball season has been Kentucky going over its team total. There's little reason to go away from it now as Jackson State ranks 330th overall on Bart Torvik while sitting 301st in adjusted defensive efficiency. This is right on brand with the Tigers' marks from a season ago (306th in Bart Torvik and 310th in adjusted defensive efficiency).
If there's one thing the Wildcats can do, it's put the ball in the hoop. Through four games, they're logging 94.3 points per game (fifth-most) paired with a 59.1% effective field goal percentage (top 5%). When facing mid-major teams, UK is logging 100.0 PPG over three games.
According to Bart Torvik, Jackson State is the worst defense the Cats will see up to this point. Why not take the over? Reaching the century mark yet again is in the cards.
Kentucky Total Points
The Tigers are in the bottom 9% in three-point shot distribution allowed. Meanwhile, Kentucky is in the top 16% of three-point shots per contest while shooting a deadly 41.8% from three-point land (top 2%). Coach Mark Pope has consistently expressed he wants the Wildcats to shoot over 30 three-point attempts per game; he should get his wish tonight.
Jackson State is also in the top 30% for the quickest tempos in college basketball, aiding Big Blue's chances of pouring in points. This game goes right in line with what UK wants to do: play fast and shoot threes.
No. 13 Baylor Bears vs. No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers
Under 142.5 Points (-105)
Two contrasting styles are clashing in a top-25 matchup between Baylor and Tennessee. The Bears hold the 5th-best adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 39th in the defensive metric. The Volunteers are on the opposite end, ranked 27th on offense and 4th on defense in efficiency.
As usual, Tennessee looks to slow games down and make it a slugfest. While Baylor is averaging 88.4 PPG (top 3%), it's still in the top 29% for the slowest adjusted tempos in the nation. Shooting only 42.2% against St. John's in last night's electric double OT finish doesn't inspire confidence for facing the Vols' stingy defense.
Additionally, the Bears shot 46.6% about two weeks ago against Arkansas and finished with a 37.1% field goal percentage (FG%) against Gonzaga. Overall, there are clear efficiency concerns for this offense when facing quality defenses.
Total Points
Tennessee is the best defense Baylor has seen up to this point, for the unit gives up only 57.2 PPG (top 3%) while opponents hold a 40.8 eFG% (top 5%). The Bears are mostly relying on jumpshots as they sit in the bottom 44% for shot distribution for close twos. That's not a good formula against a tough defense.
Getting looks from three shouldn't be a problem as the Volunteers are in the bottom 4% in three-point shot distribution allowed. As most of us know, teams easily go cold from deep. Completely relying on three-pointers is risky business, though Baylor shoots 39.1% from deep (top 10%).
With that said, UT is in the top 5% in shot distribution for close twos. The Bears have barely given up looks around the rim, ranked in the 96th percentile for close twos shot distribution allowed.
Not only will the pace of play likely aid the under, each offense could easily get into cold spells on Friday night.
No. 12 Duke Blue Devils at No. 17 Arizona Wildcats
Duke Moneyline (+104)
Getting Duke as an underdog against Arizona feels like terrific value. Sure, a road atmosphere adds to the challenge, but the Blue Devils are still one of the nation's most talented teams. Duke even ranks 2nd in Bart Torvik while Arizona is 12th.
Perhaps the key player of this game will be the Devils' freshman rim protector Khaman Maluach. He's been an elite rim protector at times, as we saw for stretches against Kentucky. Arizona is in the top 9% in close twos shot distribution, but the Blue Devils give up only a 28.6% share on close-two attempts (top 6%). Duke's ability to defend the rim keeps going as forwards Cooper Flagg (3.81) and Maliq Brown (2.66) hold exceptional marks in EvanMiya's Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR).
If the Wildcats cannot get to the rim, they will likely be in deep trouble with a three-point percentage of only 27.4% (bottom 17%). Part of the early struggles have been due to Caleb Love shooting 35.1% from the field and 26.3% from three in the early going. Adding to the backcourt concerns, guard KJ Lewis shot only 34.1% from three last season and is currently at 22.2%.
Moneyline
On the other side of the ball, Duke has the ability to consistently win in isolation thanks to Flagg (16.3 PPG), Kon Knueppel (14.8 PPG), and Tyrese Proctor (12.8 PPG). The Wildcats are in the bottom 27% of three-point shot distribution allowed, and the Dukies are in the top 10% in three-point shot distribution. Consistently leaving the Blue Devils open from beyond the arc could spell big trouble due to their 37.2% mark from deep (top 20%).
Ultimately, I like Duke to win this outright. Its defense has more than enough to eliminate Arizona's strength on offense, and the Devils have plenty of capable shooters to make the Wildcats pay from three.
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Which bets stand out to you across the nation tonight? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.