3 Best College Basketball Bets and Player Props for Saturday 1/4/25
The college basketball season is rolling along, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.
Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best College Basketball Betting Picks
No. 6 Florida Gators at No. 10 Kentucky Wildcats
Florida Over 82.5 Points (-104)
Get ready to see a load of top-25 matchups in the SEC. It tips off on Saturday as three top-25 matchups are on the SEC schedule. Perhaps the most anticipated clash is between No. 6 Florida and No. 10 Kentucky.
The Gators are a perfect 13-0 while going 10-3 against the spread (ATS) and rank ninth in Bart Torvik. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are 15th in Bart Torvik and turned some heads during non-conference play with wins over Duke and Gonzaga.
Both teams are led by excellent offenses as Florida boasts the 10th-best adjusted offensive efficiency while UK ranks 7th in the category. The difference in this contest could be the Gators ranking 15th in adjusted defense while the Cats are 56th. With UF averaging 87.4 points per game (top 2%), stopping this offense should be a huge worry for the Wildcats.
The Gators have recorded 88.7 points per game (PPG) over their last six contests. This came against some questionable defenses, though, including North Carolina (93rd in adjusted defense), Arizona State (57th in adjusted defense), and Virginia (44th in adjusted defense). Kentucky's unit is much better, giving up 85.0 PPG in its last two games against high major opponents.
This game's lofty 165.5 total comes with good reason, for each team is in the top 10 of scoring and top 23% for the quickest adjusted tempos in college basketball. With that said, Florida's 82.5-point total is not fazing me.
Three-point shooting will likely play a huge role as the Gators are in the top 30% of three-point shot distribution. Meanwhile, UK is in the bottom 39% of three-point shot distribution allowed. Opponents average 26.2 three-point attempts per game (bottom 12% for defense) against the Cats. Kentucky has been fortunate to hold opposing teams to 7.2 made three per contest (top 34%), but allowing this kind of volume against Florida will be playing with fire considering the Gators' 34.5% three-point percentage (top 34%).
Additionally, extra possessions could be the sealing blow as the Gators boast the second-highest offensive rebounding percentage. The Wildcats rank outside the top 50 in defensive rebounding rate and struggled in the category in their loss against Clemson -- who recorded 15 offensive boards against Kentucky. Extra possessions and shooting threes are Florida's paths to lighting up the scoreboard yet again.
No. 23 Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers
Adou Thiero Over 15.5 Points (-118)
The AP Top 25 Poll is often a revolving door to begin the season. Kansas hung onto the top spot for the first five weeks of the season, but following a loss, Tennessee grabbed the top spot. For about a month now, the Volunteers have been the top-ranked team in college basketball.
Arkansas struggled to start the season, but it's put together a six-game winning streak -- which included a win over Michigan (11th in Bart Torvik). During that stretch, the offense is logging 89.5 PPG. However, the Volunteers boast the second-best adjusted defense, posing a titan-sized challenge.
Considering the Razorbacks' recent hot streak, they should be able to put up some points. Adou Thiero, who leads the team with 17.8 PPG, feels like the safest bet if you want to lean into this offense. He's logged 18.3 PPG over his last four outings.
Even in Arkansas' two losses this season, Thiero put up 25.0 PPG. This offense tends to lean on its star forward when the going gets tough. In the three games where the Hogs have scored 75 points or fewer, Thiero has averaged 23.0 PPG in the split.
He will likely draw matchups against Tennessee's Igor Milicic and Cade Phillips. Milicic has the second-lowest Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR) in the Vols' starting lineup (2.84), and Phillips touts the lowest DBPR in their rotation (0.99), per EvanMiya.
Arizona Wildcats at No. 16 Cincinnati Bearcats
Under 147.5 Points (-110)
Moving over to the Big 12, conference play is expected to be boosted by another big basketball brand -- Arizona. The Wildcats won their first Big 12 test with a 90-81 win over TCU, but Saturday's road game against Cincinnati is a much more challenging task.
The Bearcats have been one of the biggest surprises in the early season, ranked 24th in Bart Torvik. Meanwhile, Arizona has faltered with a 7-5 start despite sitting 14th in Bart Torvik. Following a promising start, Cincy is going through its own trials and tribulations with a 2-5 record against the spread (ATS) over the last seven while dropping its conference-opening game against Kansas State (70-67).
This one will likely be a battle of tempo as Arizona is in the top 16% for the quickest adjusted tempos while Cincinnati is in the top 22% for the slowest adjusted tempos. Ultimately, I like the Bearcats' chances of winning the possession battle.
Both squads are elite in the rebounding category, sitting in the top 15% of defensive and offensive rebounding percentages. However, turnovers are a big difference, with the Wildcats giving up 12.2 per game (181st) while Cincy averages 9.8 (21st).
Plus, Cincinnati is in the top 44% of shot distribution allowed for close twos. Meanwhile, Arizona's offense relies on this by ranking in the top 15% of close twos shot distribution. Between controlling the possession battle and taking away the Wildcats' scoring strength, a low-scoring contest looks imminent.
The Bearcats rank 7th in adjusted defense compared to the Wildcats at 27th. Each team is in the top 18% of effective field goal percentage allowed, as well.
Bart Torvik's game projections have this game totaling 142 points; give me the under.
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