3 Best Australian Open Tennis Bets for Thursday 1/16/25

The first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open, is underway this week.

We should see plenty of fun matches and storylines emerge over the next couple of weeks, and what better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which third-round matches could have the most betting value on Thursday.

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Australian Open Tennis Third Round Betting Picks for Thursday

Naomi Osaka vs. Belinda Bencic

Osaka -1.5 Games (-122)

Naomi Osaka proved doubters like myself wrong by overcoming adversity and beating a dangerous Karolina Muchova in the second round 1-6, 6-1, 6-3. This is a huge win for the former world No. 1, and it's a fantastic sign that she's getting closer to the form that won her four hard-court majors from 2018-2021. It's also an indication the injury that caused her to retire in the Auckland title match ahead of this tournament hasn't affected her so far.

With that in mind, backing Osaka to keep this run going against Belinda Bencic feels like the play.

Bencic returned to the sport late in 2024 after giving birth to her first child, and it sure hasn't taken her long to get back up to speed, as she already upset world no. 22 Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets to open this tournament.

However, Ostapenko may not have been at her best. She ended last season on a four-match losing streak before shutting things down in September, and then she opened this campaign by going just 1-2 in two tune-up events.

It's also worth noting Bencic is just two-plus months into her comeback, and as we saw in Osaka's return from maternity leave last season, getting back to consistent form following a lengthy layoff is never easy.

Bencic leads the head-to-head against Osaka 3-2, but they last played in 2022 (a match that Osaka won) and the other four came in 2019 or earlier, so it's hard to read too much into those meetings.

While there's risk in overreacting to Osaka's last win, she was on the rise in Auckland before her untimely injury, and she's otherwise won all six of her completed matches this season.

Tennis Abstract projects this match as roughly a toss-up with the slight edge going to Osaka while Massey Ratings sides with her with a 55% win probability. Even if Bencic proves to be troublesome, this spread isn't a high bar for Osaka to cover, making it an appealing way to target this match.

Novak Djokovic vs. Tomas Machac

Machac ML (+330)

We're taking a big swing on Day 6, backing Tomas Machac to knock off Novak Djokovic.

Djokovic was arguably a value pick to win this tournament, but he's opened his 2025 campaign looking a bit shaky. Novak lost in straight sets to self-proclaimed "servebot" Reilly Opelka at Brisbane before this tournament, and he's dropped a set in each of his first two matches here despite facing a pair of opponents ranked outside the top 100.

Perhaps Djokovic turns things up a notch after getting some matches under his belt -- something we've seen time and time again at Grand Slams over his career -- but at 37 years old, finding that next level isn't necessarily guaranteed anymore.

As for Machac, he had to survive a tough test against the aforementioned Opelka himself in the prior round but came through in five sets. He proved he could hang with the big boys in some encouraging results toward the end of 2024, reaching the semifinals in Tokyo and Shanghai, which included wins over Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul (twice).

While Machac is ranked 25th in the world, his talents could be that of a top-10 player. According to Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, the Czech player ranks ninth overall on hard courts, suggesting he should be able to be competitive against Djokovic.

In fact, Machac already shown he can hang with the Serbian superstar, as he's gone to a final set in two meetings, losing in a third set tiebreak in 2023 and then defeating Djokovic on clay last season.

Admittedly, this could look foolish if we see vintage Djokovic tonight, but if his recent hiccups are a sign of a growing trend, Machac might be able to capitalize, and it's rare we can jump on an underdog at this price with any bit of confidence.

Some less risky alternatives include Machac covering +5.5 games (-104) or Machac winning over 16.5 total games (-112), too.

Coco Gauff vs. Leylah Fernandez

Gauff -5.5 Games (-126)

This match features two seeded players, but Coco Gauff has been showing unbelievable form dating back to last season and is deservedly a heavy favorite. Gauff has won 20 of her last 22 matches and is on a 9-match win streak. She also hasn't dropped a set across seven matches in a row.

Over this span, Coco faced Leylah Fernandez at the United Cup and took care of business with a 6-3, 6-2 victory. A similar fate could await Fernandez tonight.

Per Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Fernandez isn't in the same league as Gauff on hard courts. Leylah ranks 26th on the surface while Coco is 3rd behind just Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek.

Fernandez also hasn't had a smooth ride into this third round despite facing opponents ranked 100 or higher. She most recently went two hours and 40 minutes to defeat 110th-ranked Cristina Bucsa over three sets.

Tennis Abstract projects an 83% win probability for Gauff, and Massey Ratings bumps that up to 90%. While this spread doesn't leave much room for error, the American is on another level right now and should be able to cover in a comfortable win.

Looking for the latest tennis odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the tennis betting options and upcoming tournaments.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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