3 Best Australian Open Tennis Bets for Day 12

The first Grand Slam of the year, the Australian Open, is underway and into the second week.

What better way to get in on the action than by making some wagers on the Australian Open Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see which women's semifinal matches could have the most betting value on Day 12.

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Australian Open Tennis Women's Semifinals Betting Picks for Day 12

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Paula Badosa

Badosa +4.5 Games (-126)
Over 2.5 Total Sets (+152)

On paper, this is a mismatch between two close friends off the court.

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka has won the last two Australian Opens and has opened her 2025 campaign with a perfect 10-0 record. Meanwhile, this is Paula Badosa's first time ever making a Grand Slam semifinal, and she's 2-5 lifetime against Sabalenka, last beating the Belarusian in 2021.

But Badosa shouldn't be written off after knocking out Coco Gauff 7-5, 6-4 in the quarterfinals. Gauff was arguably the hottest player on tour dating back to last year's Asian swing -- entered that match having won 22 of her last 24 matches -- so defeating her in straight sets was no small feat.

It's also a good reminder that the Spaniard was once the world No. 2 in 2022 before injuries derailed her, and she bounced back with a success season in 2024 that ended with a quarterfinals appearance at the US Open and being awarded WTA Comeback Player of the Year.

While Sabalenka's record speaks for itself, she's had some hiccups along the way to these semifinals, being forced into a tiebreak in a close two-setter versus 42nd-ranked Clara Tauson and then dropped a set to world No. 32 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the quarterfinals.

Per Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, Sabalenka predictably has the top score on hard courts, but Badosa is no slouch, ranking inside the top 10. However, the gap between the two is still large enough for the site's model to project just a 23.5% win probability for the underdog.

Still, Badosa's previous heights coupled with her upset of Gauff suggests that she should be able to present plenty of problems for Sabalenka, particularly with Aryna not wiping the floor with everyone as we've often seen her do at the hard-court majors.

Badosa should be able to keep things close enough to cover the spread, and the potential for her to force a final set also makes taking the over on 2.5 total sets intriguing at plus money.

Madison Keys vs. Iga Swiatek

Swiatek -5.5 Games (-110)

We typically think of Iga Swiatek going on these types of run on clay, but there's a reason she's second to only Sabalenka in Tennis Abstract's hard court Elo ratings.

Swiatek has lost just 14 total games (!!) over her five matches, and 7 of those those came in the first round when she was presumably just getting acclimated to the courts. Consider that her last four scores have been 6-0, 6-2 over Rebecca Sramkova, 6-1, 6-0 over Emma Raducanu, 6-0, 6-1 over Eva Lys, and 6-1, 6-2 over Emma Navarro. The lopsided win over a top-10 player like Navarro was especially impressive.

Even at 23 years old, it's at times like this that it's surprising this is only her second time advancing to the Australian Open semifinals in seven tries, and she's otherwise hasn't made it past the fourth round.

For Madison Keys, this will be her third Australian Open semifinal, but she's had to overcome far more adversity to reach this stage. She's gone to a final set in three of her five matches, and in those three-setters alone, she lost 17, 12, and 13 games -- showing how crazy Swiatek's results have been.

Keys has certainly had the tougher draw, defeating three straight seeded players and most notably ousting world No. 7 Elena Rybakina. She's also the kind of power player who can give Swiatek fits, and the two have split their head-to-head matches on hard courts at one apiece.

However, Iga leads the overall head-to-head 4-1, and she won both of their 2024 matches comfortably in straight sets, albeit on clay. Even if three of Swiatek's four wins over Keys were on clay, it's still telling that Keys hasn't been particularly competitive in any of them, losing each by over 5.5 games.

Tennis Abstract projects Swiatek to win this match 76.6% of the time. Although there's a risk that she suffers a letdown match like we saw in last year's loss to Jessica Pegula at the US Open quarterfinals, Keys hasn't been winning in as convincing fashion as Pegula was at that event.

Ultimately, Iga is looking unstoppable these days and seems poised to reach her first Australian Open final. If she plays with the form we've seen over the last week and a half, she should be able to cover this spread.

Looking for the latest tennis odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to check out all of the tennis betting options and upcoming tournaments.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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