With Week 12 officially in the books, we are past the halfway point of the 2023 NFL season! The Dallas Cowboys remain on top of our NFL Power Rankings -- which come via numberFire's nERD metric -- while the Carolina Panthers remain at the bottom.

The Los Angeles Rams' 37-14 win over the Arizona Cardinals sees them move up four spots to 16th. Arizona drops one spot to 30th.

The Green Bay Packers jump up three places after their 29-22 win over the Detroit Lions and now sit in 11th.

After their 31-13 loss to the San Francisco 49ers , the Seattle Seahawks move down four places and now reside in 19th.

The Philadelphia Eagles move up one spots to seventh after their thrilling 37-34 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo falls one spot to fifth.

The team with the largest increase in Super Bowl odds, per numberFire's model, after Week 12? The Kansas City Chiefs, up 8.3 percentage points.

The team with the largest decrease in Super Bowl odds? The Baltimore Ravens, down 6.0 percentage points.

These Power Rankings will continue to shift weekly as the story of the season is written.

Here's where things stand heading into Week 13.

NFL Power Rankings (Week 12)

Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd

A 17-10 loss to the Tennessee Titans marked the end of Frank Reich's time as head coach in Carolina. After 11 games in charge, the end result was a 1-10 record, worst in the NFL. The Panthers rushing offense ranks 26th, per numberFire's metrics, and their passing offense ranks 31st for an overall ranking of 29th. On defense, things are better -- but only slightly. Carolina ranks 32nd against the run and 18th against the pass for an overall ranking of 28th. It was a near worst-case scenario in what was supposed to be the start of a new era in Carolina. Juxtaposed against the season the Houston Texans are having, things look even worse.

The Chicago Bears earned their fourth win of the season with a 12-10 victory over the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football. The game included six total turnovers and just one touchdown, providing a clear picture of the struggles both teams are dealing with. For Chicago, their offense remains a huge problem. Through the air, they rank 26th, which offsets a rushing offense that ranks 3rd. Their defense ranks 3rd against the run but 30th against the pass. The good news for the Bears is that, unlike Carolina, they have significant draft capital to improve their team. The question Chicago needs to answer between now and the end of the season is if Justin Fields is their quarterback of the future or not.

The Denver Broncos keep on winning. After their 29-12 win over the Cleveland Browns, the Broncos moved up three spots to 24th. They have now won five games in a row, and their unlikely journey to a playoff appearance remains on track. After their win, the Broncos' odds of making the playoffs, according to numberFire, increased by 11.1% (the fourth-largest jump of the week) and now sit at 15.8%. They remain a longshot to do so, but their odds are drastically improved from where they were six weeks ago. Denver's offense ranks 15th overall, per numberFire, and their defense ranks 29th. The Broncos' margin for error in a very crowded AFC playoff picture remains extremely small. Their rest-of-season schedule includes two games against the Chargers as well as clashes with the Texans, Lions, Patriots, and Raiders. The Broncos have come a long way, but they have a long way to go still.

Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th

The Atlanta Falcons ended their three-game losing streak with a pivotal 24-15 win over the New Orleans Saints. The win sees them move up one spot but more importantly, sees their odds of making the playoffs improve by 32.3%, the second-largest increase of the week. Atlanta's path to the playoffs will almost certainly have to run through the NFC South. They need to win their division, and they now control their own destiny. The Falcons' offense ranks 23rd, per numberFire, and their defense ranks 13th. Atlanta has a path to a division title and a playoff appearance, but their offense may make successfully navigating that path difficult. With games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Saints still to come, there is work to be done still for Atlanta. As it stands, the Falcons' odds of winning the NFC South sit at 50.9%, per numberFire.

Something has to change in Seattle. After their 31-13 loss to the 49ers, the Seahawks have now lost three of their last four. Their offense is averaging just 14.5 points per game during that stretch. Their odds of making the playoffs have fallen to 45.3%. Their offense ranks 21st, per numberFire, and their defense ranks 17th. With their upcoming schedule, those numbers likely won't cut it. Over the next three weeks, the Seahawks face the Cowboys, 49ers, and Eagles. To keep their playoff hopes alive, they likely need to find a way to win at least one of those games.

In a crucial AFC South showdown, the Jacksonville Jaguars emerged victorious, stopping the red-hot Texans to take control of their division. With the win, Jacksonville's odds of winning the division increased by 22.8% and now sit at 88.8%, per numberFire's model. Their odds of making the playoffs increased by 4.0% and now sit at 98.4%. They needed this one, and they got it. The Jaguars have a favorable rest-of-season schedule with only one game against a team currently ranked inside the top 10. They can now turn their attention to competing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They currently have the third-best odds to do so (+490), per the NFL Conference Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, behind the Ravens (+410) and Chiefs (-120).

Teams Ranked 12th to 1st

The Packers' upset over the Lions on Thanksgiving moves them into the top tier of the rankings. With their season teetering on the brink, Green Bay earned an impactful win. Their odds of making the playoffs improved by 32.6%, the largest increase of the week, and now sit at 59.2%. Make no mistake about it; there is still plenty of work to be done in Green Bay, but without this win, their path to the playoffs was going to be extremely difficult. Next up is a difficult clash with the Chiefs, but after that, they have a very winnable slate of opponents the rest of the way with games against the Giants, Buccaneers, Panthers, Vikings, and Bears. With the Vikings and Seahawks both trending in the wrong direction, Green Bay has a very real chance to make it to the postseason.

Following their 12-10 loss to the Bears, the Vikings' odds of making the playoffs dropped by a staggering 39.5%. They head into their bye with uncertainty at quarterback knowing they have plenty of work to do in their final five games to make the playoffs. All is not lost; Minnesota's odds of making the playoffs still sit at 43.2%, per numberFire's models, but they had a golden chance to capitalize on the Lions' loss, and they failed to do so. The good news for the Vikings is they still control their own destiny. After winnable games against the Raiders and Bengals, they finish their season with two games against Detroit and one against Green Bay. If they fix things during the bye, the opportunity to secure a playoff spot is still there.

The Eagles just keep winning. After a relatively easy schedule to start the season, Philadelphia has been taking on the league's best over the past month and a half and has passed every test. Since their loss to the Jets in Week 6, they have wins over the Dolphins, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills. They have faced the most difficult schedule and emerged with the best record in the NFL. Their offense ranks sixth, per numberFire, but their defense, which ranks 18th, remains an area of concern. Philadelphia isn't out of the woods just yet; they face the 49ers in Week 13 before a monumental showdown with the Cowboys in Dallas in Week 14. As it stands, their odds of winning the NFC East sit at 95.4%, and their odds of winning the Super Bowl sit at 19.7% behind only the Chiefs and 49ers.

What a crazy season for Buffalo. They rank fifth in our Power Rankings, but after their loss to the Eagles, their odds of making the playoffs sit at just 9.4%. The Bills' offense remains elite, ranking second on the ground and third through the air, and their defense, which ranks 11th, has been decent, as well. Buffalo ranks fourth in point differential (+101) behind only the Cowboys, 49ers, and Ravens. On nearly every metric except record, Buffalo looks like a contender. At some point though, you have to win games, and at this point, the Bills likely need to run the table to have any chance of making the playoffs. Their schedule will make that difficult; after their bye in Week 13, they face the Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins.

The Cowboys continue to cruise. After their 45-10 win over the Washington Commanders on Thanksgiving, Dallas increased their margin over San Francisco for the top spot in the rankings. Dallas is a longshot (4.6% via numberFire) to win the NFC East, but they are nearly locked into a Wild Card spot with their odds of making the playoffs sitting at 99.6%. Any hope of that changing starts with Dallas beating the Eagles in Week 14. Even that might not be enough, but it would open the door. The difference between having the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye and having to play multiple road games in the playoffs as a Wild Card team is a large one. As it stands, the Cowboys' odds of winning the Super Bowl rank sixth (8.3%), per numberFire's models.

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