2023-24 NBA: Staff Predictions for NBA Championship, Award Winners, and Win Totals
There isn't much more fun you can have in anticipation of an upcoming sports season than calling your shot. One of the few things more fun? Calling that shot correctly.
Therefore, the team at FanDuel Research has decided to put our "mouth" out there, and you'll decide if you want to put "money" where any of those mouths might be.
I asked our team of NBA experts what their predicted NBA Finals matchup was, their best value bet for an award, and a win total they love entering the 2023-24 season. Here are the results.
2024 NBA Finals Matchup and Winner
Austin Swaim, Senior Editor
Milwaukee Bucks over Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers were one of the best teams post-trade deadline a season ago, and with their retention of depth and the Denver Nuggets losing some, I'll pick the Lakers out west. The Milwaukee Bucks' core largely stayed intact -- now with an elite half-court creator to cure some of their previous playoff woes. I'll take Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard over Anthony Davis and an aged version of LeBron James, but that series has all the makings of a seven-game barnburner.
Austan Kas, Senior Editor
Boston Celtics over Golden State Warriors
The Boston Celtics have arguably been the NBA's best team for two years running but fell short in the playoffs each time. I think this is the year they get over the hump and win a title. The addition of Jrue Holiday will be a boost defensively -- with Holiday and Derrick White forming a lethal defensive pairing -- and don't sleep on what Kristaps Porzingis brings to the table. Plus, coach Joe Mazzulla should benefit from last season's experience.
Riley Thomas, Writer
Boston Celtics over Los Angeles Lakers
The Celtics and Lakers both made their conference finals in the 2023 playoffs. However, both fell short of the NBA Finals. We were robbed of an epic showdown between two of the NBA’s winningest franchises. The Celtics and Lakers have the tools to get to the NBA Finals in the upcoming season. The Celtics boosted their offense by acquiring Kristaps Porzingis, and the addition of Jrue Holiday quiets the concern of trading the 2021-22 Defensive Player of the Year, Marcus Smart. The Lakers excelled after the trade deadline last season and retained their talent while adding Gabe Vincent and Christian Wood. Ultimately, I love Boston’s offense paired with an elite defensive backcourt, Holiday and Derrick White.
Annie Nader, Writer
Boston Celtics over Sacramento Kings
Only two Eastern Conference teams (the Bucks and Celtics) boast shorter odds than +2400 to win the NBA Championship, and I think the Bucks’ offseason acquisition of Damian Lillard will prove to be an over-exaggerated hype-fest. Predicting how the Western Conference will shake out is a bit of a crapshoot given the large inventory of top-notch teams, but I find the most value and hope in the Sacramento Kings. The Kings’ young talent should be on the up-and-up this season while we could see regression from older talents on teams such as the Lakers and Golden State Warriors. Sacramento showed decent fight in last season’s playoffs, and though the odds aren’t in the Kings' favor, stranger things have happened; we’re only a few months past a play-in team making it to the NBA Finals.
Aidan Cotter, Writer
Milwaukee Bucks over Denver Nuggets
Injuries are a part of sports, so I'm not making any excuses for the Bucks. Still, it's hard not to think about what could have been. Injuries to Khris Middleton (in 2022) and Giannis (last season) knocked them out of the playoffs early the past two years, but I think they’re due for a Finals run this season. Losing Jrue Holiday will hurt them defensively, but the addition of Damian Lillard should reignite an offense that finished outside the top 10 in offensive rating last year for the first time since 2016-17. Giannis and Dame can be as good of a one-two punch as we've seen over the last decade, and they should be a formidable opponent for the defending champion Nuggets, who return most key pieces.
2024 NBA Awards Best Bet
Austin Swaim, Senior Editor
Anthony Davis to Win MVP (+3000)
Behind what sounds like his best offseason in a while, Anthony Davis' talent hasn't been the issue. It's been rumors of poor conditioning, leading to injuries. Davis' work has manifested in a much better three-point rate already in the preseason, and he's the unquestioned top option for LA as LeBron enters his 40s. While the competition is steep, Davis -- if able to play at least 65 games -- should be among the frontrunners as a walking double-double and arguably the league's best defensive player. Instead, the odds have him buried down with fringe All-Stars.
Austan Kas, Senior Editor
Anfernee Simons to Win Most Improved Player (+1600)
With Damian Lillard gone, I think it makes some sense to roll the dice on each of the Portland Trail Blazers' young pieces across various futures markets in the event that one of Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson or Shaedon Sharpe breaks out in a big way. My favorite bet of the bunch is Simons to be the Most Improved Player. While you can make a Rookie-of-the-Year case for Henderson (+370), and Sharpe (+3000) is capable of making some noise in the Most-Improved-Player market, I think Simons has a shot to really bust out in 2023-24. The dude is a bucket and averaged 21.1 points per game last year with Dame in the mix. He could shine as the top option.
Riley Thomas, Writer
Evan Mobley to Win Defensive Player of the Year (+700)
Evan Mobley has the second-shortest odds to win Defensive Player of the Year (+700) behind Jaren Jackson Jr. at (+500). Mobley has already proven that he is one of the NBA’s most versatile defenders. Last season, he finished third in DPOY voting last season and ranked ninth in blocks last season and seventh in defensive win shares. The Cleveland Cavaliers also had the best defensive rating last season. Mobley, the top defender on the Cavs, had a great chance to win this hardware with a repeat performance from last year, and there's a chance he can be even better.
Annie Nader, Writer
Markelle Fultz to Win Most Improved Player (+5000)
NBA season-end awards are often preoccupied with storylines, and I can’t think of a better narrative than the former number-one overall draft pick turned bust having a breakout year. Markelle Fultz returned from an ACL injury last year as the starting point guard for the Orlando Magic and showed sizable improvements from previous years in field goal percentage, Offensive Rating, and Player Impact Estimate (PIE). He will play a big role for the Magic this year and should see ample opportunity to buff up his stat line. Fultz’s storyline can’t do all the heavy lifting, but I think a positive season could put him on the map for this award in a major way.
Aidan Cotter, Writer
Jayson Tatum to Win MVP (+700)
In an era marred by load management and 60-game seasons from the league’s best players, availability may be the best ability for season-long awards, and Jayson Tatum is available above anything else. The 25-year-old played 74 games last season and 76 the campaign prior. He’s never played fewer than 64 games in a season and is coming off the best statistical year of his career. Tatum averaged 30.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game in 2022-23 -- all career-high marks. After Tatum finished fourth in MVP voting last season, I’m expecting another leap for the budding superstar with a new supporting cast that’s a much better fit around him.
2023-24 NBA Win Total to Target
Austin Swaim, Senior Editor
Houston Rockets Over 31.5 Wins (-110)
The Houston Rockets corrected several of their key issues this offseason. They made the most notable free-agent addition of any team with former All-Star Fred VanVleet coming over, and their coaching situation now is headed by Ime Udoka, who took Boston to the NBA Finals in 2021-22. With the rest of the Rockets' core another year older, VanVleet replacing Kevin Porter Jr. (and KPJ's poor 1.78 assist-to-turnover ratio) and the addition of Udoka are worth well more than the 10 extra wins they'll need to eclipse last year's total.
Austan Kas, Senior Editor
Miami Heat Under 44.5 Wins (-114)
Despite the Miami Heat's magical playoff run, they rated out as a pretty "meh" team over the large sample of the regular season, ranking 21st in net rating (-0.5). Shooting was a big problem; Miami was 21st in true shooting percentage and 27th in three-point percentage. This summer, they lost Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, two rotation pieces who offered shooting. The Heat won just 44 games last regular season, and I think Miami is worse heading into 2023-24.
Riley Thomas, Writer
Indiana Pacers Over 39.5 Wins (-110)
I love how the Indiana Pacers have built their emerging roster. They should have plenty of offense in their backcourt with Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, and Bruce Brown Jr.. Haliburton ranked fifth in offensive RAPTOR last season. That’s right -- fifth overall! Indiana is led by one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers, and he is surrounded by talented scorers. Indiana ranked 26th in defensive rating in the 2022-23 season. They addressed the need by drafting Jarace Walker -- one of the best defensive prospects in the 2023 NBA Draft. The Pacers reached 35 wins last season; they should increase their win total once again. I see them surpassing 39 wins and vying for a play-in spot.
Annie Nader, Writer
Boston Celtics Over 54.5 Wins (+100)
At least one NBA team has won 55 or more games every year since 1979 (with the exception of a few shortened seasons), and I think there’s no better candidate to clear that mark than this year’s Celtics team. They won 57 games last season and, by all accounts, made improvements to their squad this offseason. They swapped out previous starting point guard Marcus Smart for Jrue Holiday, who led Smart in just about every category last year, including Net Rating, PlE, Defensive Win Shares, and all shooting percentage markers. They also added Kristaps Porzingis, who is more than capable of offering a boost in the post on both ends of the court, -- something Boston hasn’t seen for quite some time. According to Positive Residual, Boston touts the third-easiest strength of schedule this season, so despite 55 wins being a high bar, the barriers for Boston are far and few between.
Aidan Cotter, Writer
Indiana Pacers Over 39.5 Wins (-110)
Last year, the Pacers won 35 games despite allowing the most points per game (119.5) in the Eastern Conference. Adding Bruce Brown should help shore up things on that end, but this team is going as far as their offense takes them. Former top-10 pick Obi Toppin should round out a starting lineup that may run the break better than any team in the league in 2023-24. They finished fifth in pace last year primarily thanks to the excellence of Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton led the league in assist rate (45.7%) and is fresh off leading Team USA in assists (5.6) and steals (1.5) during the FIBA Men’s World Cup. With no notable departures from one of last season’s youngest teams, I’m all in on the Pacers taking another leap in a much weaker Eastern Conference.
Do you think you know which NBA players will take home hardware this season? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA award odds market to bet any major season-long awards with America's Number One Sportsbook.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.