Navy vs UCF Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for Week 12 (UCF Continues to Roll)

Navy vs UCF Week 12 Game Info

2022 NCAA College Football Game
Navy Midshipmen (3-7, 3-4 AAC) vs. No. 20 UCF Knights (8-2- 5-1 AAC)
Date: Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022
Time: 11 a.m. ET
Venue: FBC Mortgage Stadium — Orlando, FL
Coverage: ESPN2

Week 12 of the 2022 NCAA college football season includes an American Athletic Conference early morning kickoff between the Navy Midshipmen and co-leaders Central Florida (UCF) Knights, who beat previously unbeaten Tulane last week 38-31 to move into 3-way tie on top of the conference standings with Tulane and Cincinnati.

Meanwhile, Navy has lost back-to-back games to Cincinnati and last week to Notre Dame 35-32 after a big fourth quarter rally came up just short.

Navy vs UCF Odds & Spread

All NCAAF betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: NAVY: (+550) | UCF: (-820)
Spread: NAVY: +16.5 (-105) | UCF: -16.5 (-115)
Total: 52.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Central Florida enters this contest as a big favorite on the spread (-16.5) and moneyline (-820). An upset win by Navy returns +550 on the moneyline. Both the side and total are down a few points from Sunday's openers in Las Vegas, and the total is now 52.5 points - a bit below an average over/under compared to other NCAA football games this week.

Navy vs UCF Prediction & Pick

This is Central Florida's last home game, and the Knights are on a 3-0 SU/ATS run with the league's most productive offense averaging nearly 500 yards per game (249 rush, 271 pass). In fact, UCF is slightly out-rushing Navy (243), and the Midshipmen are averaging just 4.1 yards per rush this season. The Knights also have a solid special teams and kicking edge in this match-up.

These are the top-2 rush defenses in the AAC as well with Navy allowing just 86 rushing YPG and UCF 124 and the fewest rush attempts against as well. Navy's pass defense is deficient allowing 274 passing YPG and a league-worst 9.1 yards per pass. But Navy has still allowed the fewest first downs to opponents in the AAC at an average of just 16 per game.

Central Florida QB John Rhys Plumlee passed for at least 295 yards against SMU, Temple and ECU in October with all three teams having better pass defenses than Navy. Projections are 500 yards offense for the Knights with at least 300 passing in a margin win.

Final Score Prediction: UCF: 37 | Navy: 16

Navy vs UCF Betting Trends

- Navy is 1-4 straight up (SU) in their last 5 games.
- Navy is 6-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 8 games.
- Navy is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- The total has gone Over in 5 of Navy's last 6 games.
- UCF is 7-2 SU in their last 8 games.
- The total has gone Under in 8 of UCF's last 12 games.

Navy vs UCF Best Bet

All NCAAF betting lines, odds and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

This is Navy's last AAC game before a bye week and the big game vs Army Dec. 10. The Midshipmen are the only team in the country to not play a home game in November. The highest-ranked non-autonomy 5 conference champion is guaranteed a spot in a New Year’s 6 bowl, and Central Florida can continue their push with two more conference wins followed by an AAC Championship game win.

Last year Navy upset UCF 34-30 at this same price point as a 16-point underdog. The Midshipmen come off the physical battle with Notre Dame this time, and Knights second-year coach Gus Malzahn will have UCF better prepared and ready to launch missiles through the air.

The week prior in a 20-10 loss against Cincinnati, the Bearcats passed for 300 yards and their weak running game did little against Navy. The Midshipmen's option attack was not as strong rushing for 178 yards, and UCF does both so much better and has the stronger defense to pull away in the second half.

Bet: Central Florida -16.5 (-115)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.