Mississippi State vs Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for March 9 SEC Tournament (Bulldogs' Defense Steps Up)

Mississippi State vs Florida Game Info

• 2022-23 NCAA Basketball SEC Tournament Game
• Mississippi State (20-11, 8-10 SEC) vs. Florida (16-15, 9-9 SEC)
• Date: Thursday, March 9, 2023
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Bridgestone Arena -- Nashville, Tennessee
• Coverage: SEC Network

The SEC Tournament continues on Thursday with a thrilling matchup between the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Florida Gators. Neither squad has won the conference title since the 2013-14 season. The winner of this second round matchup will go on to play the top-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide.

Mississippi State enters as a victor in four of its last seven games, but fell short in a 77-72 loss to Vanderbilt its last time out. Meanwhile, Florida snapped a three-game losing streak with a 79-67 in over LSU to end the regular season. Which SEC squad will keep its conference title hopes alive?

Mississippi State vs Florida Odds & Spread

• All college basketball betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
• Moneyline: MISSST: (-210) | FLA: (+172)
• Spread: MISSST: -5.5 (-102) | FLA: +5.5 (-120)
• Total: 130.5 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Mississippi State enters this contest as a notable favorite on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 1 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 130.5 points, which is below average compared to Thursday's projected totals.

Mississippi State vs Florida Betting Trends

• Against the spread, Mississippi State is 16-15-0 this year.
• As 3.5-point favorites or more, the Bulldogs are 10-9 against the spread.
• There have been 13 Mississippi State's games (out of 31) that hit the over this year.
• Florida has 15 wins in 31 games against the spread this year.
• Against the spread as 3.5-point underdogs or greater, the Gators are 3-6.
• This year, 15 of Florida's 31 games have gone over the point total.

Mississippi State Rank	Mississippi State AVG		Florida AVG	Florida Rank
314th	66.4	Points Scored	72.1	172nd
7th	60.4	Points Allowed	68.6	133rd
36th	34.8	Rebounds	32.0	165th
6th	11.6	Off. Rebounds	7.2	289th
339th	5.5	3pt Made	6.7	257th
82nd	14.4	Assists	12.4	234th
184th	11.9	Turnovers	10.4	40th

Mississippi State vs Florida Prediction & Pick

Mississippi State was ranked in the AP top 25 at times this season and its success has everything to do with its standout defense. The Bulldogs allow only 60.4 points per game (No. 7 in NCAA) on an opponent shooting percentage of 39.3% (No. 10 in NCAA). They contest every shot on the court.

That does not bode well for Florida's chances of pulling off an upset. The Gators rank outside the top 140 teams when it comes to offensive efficiency, points per game and shooting percentage. They'll have a hard time scoring in this one, which gives the Bulldogs a chance to pull away after halftime.

Look for Mississippi State to exact revenge for a mid-season loss to Florida with a win on Thursday.

Final Score Prediction: Mississippi State: 67 | Florida: 61

Mississippi State vs Florida Best Bet

Don't let the fact that Florida emerged victorious in the only regular season matchup between these squads distract from their offensive struggles in that game. The Gators only scored 61 points on a shooting mark of 41.8%. They have scored less than 64 points a total of eight times this season.

Mississippi State has held their opponent to an average of 62.5 points over its last 10 games. The Bulldogs have the size to compete against Colin Castleton down low and the speed to keep up with Will Richard along the perimeter. They are going to frustrate Florida throughout the entire game.

Bet: Florida Gators Under 63.5 Points (-120)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.