Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for UFC 286 (Fiziev Breaks Through With Another KO)

Gaethje vs Fiziev Fight Info, Date & Time

UFC 285 — Co-Main Event Lightweight Bout
Justin "The Highlight" Gaethje (23-4-0, 19 KOs) vs. Rafael "Ataman" Fiziev (12-1-0, 8 KOs)
Date: Saturday, March 18, 2023
Fight Time: This will be one of the final fights on the main card, which begins at 10 p.m. ET.
Venue: O2 Arena — London, England, United Kingdom
Coverage: ESPN, PPV

Gaethje vs Fiziev Odds & Prop Bets

All UFC 286 odds, lines and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline:
- Justin Gaethje: (+186)
- Rafael Fiziev: (-245)

Method of Victory:
- Gaethje by KO/TKO: (+320)
- Gaethje by Points: (+750)
- Gaethje by Submission: (+2600)
- Fiziev by KO/TKO: (+140)
- Fiziev by Points: (+240)
- Fiziev by Submission: (+1900)

Gaethje vs Fiziev Prediction

A lightweight matchup between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev comes with some juicy storylines. Gaethje is trying to bounce back from a loss to Charles Oliveira at UFC 274 and prove he still has what it takes to contend. Fiziev is trying to break through with another win over a former champion.

Gaethje enters this one with a key advantage in the form of experience. The 34-year-old has been a part of the UFC two years longer than Fiziev has. He has steadied his striking techniques over time and focuses on fundamentals to find his opponent's weak spots. It's a strategy that tends to pay off.

Meanwhile, Fiziev usually uses body kicks and punch combinations to wear his foe down before ending the bout with a single strike. He also possesses power from both his right and left hand, which will come in handy against Gaethje considering the veteran absorbs 7.85 significant strike per minute.

I'll side with Rafael Fiziev to come out on top.

Gaethje vs Fiziev Best Bet

Gaethje is not afraid to take on one punch after another because he also averages 7.46 significant strikes landed per minute. The punching frenzy is not going to work on Saturday, though, given Fiziev ability to counter with perfection. Eight of the 30-year-old's 12 career wins have come by knockout.

There's value in backing this bout to not go the distance (-215 odds) as both fighters have elite knockout capabilities. However, choosing a side comes with a much better payout. Fiziev is on a six-fight winning streak at the UFC level and seems to be only reaching his peak now. Trust the favorite.

Bet: Rafael Fiziev by KO/TKO (+140)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.