Hawks vs Heat Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for Play-In Game (Atlanta Secures Upset Win Inside Kaseya Center)

Hawks vs Heat Play-In Game Info

• Date: Tuesday, April 11, 2023
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Kaseya Center -- Miami, FL
• Coverage: TBD

The 2022-23 NBA Play-In Tournament starts on Tuesday with an Eastern Conference battle between the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat. The Hawks are in the playoffs for the third straight year, while the Heat are back in the postseason for the fifth time in the last six seasons. This one should be exciting.

Hawks vs Heat Odds & Spread

• All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
• Moneyline: ATL: (+188) | MIA: (-225)
• Spread: ATL: +5.5 (-110) | MIA: -5.5 (-110)
• Total: 227.5 -- Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

The Heat enter this contest as moderate home favorites on the moneyline and spread per FanDuel Sportsbook's odds. This 7 p.m. ET clash also features an over/under of 227.5 points, with both sides available at -110 odds.

Hawks vs Heat Betting Trends

• Atlanta is 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in its last seven games.
• The total has hit the over in four of Atlanta's last five games.
• Miami is 5-1 straight up in its last six home games.
• The total has hit the over in each of Miami's last five home games.

Hawks vs Heat Prediction & Pick

These teams have competed head-to-head in a playoff game 17 times and the Heat have emerged victorious in nine of those contests. That includes winning four of five games in the first round of the 2022 NBA Playoffs. The Heat won their three home games in that series by an average of 12.3 points.

There's no shortage of playmakers here. The Heat are led by the dynamic duo of Jimmy Butler (53.9% shooting percentage) and Bam Adebayo (20.6 points per game), while the Hawks are highlighted by n exciting guard duo of Dejounte Murray (20.5 points per game) and Trae Young (10.2 assists per game).

I see this showdown coming down to the fundamentals, which favor the Hawks. Atlanta ranks ahead of the Heat when it comes to shooting percentage, total rebounding rate and assists per game. Miami's defensive talent is undeniable, but it lacks any kind of offensive power (No. 25 in efficiency)

Final Score Prediction: Hawks: 116 | Heat: 113

Hawks vs Heat Best Bet

Bettors hesitant to back the Hawks as +188 outright underdogs should feel much more comfortable trusting them to cover a 5.5-point spread. That is because they are facing a Miami squad that is a dismal 13-25-2 against the spread (ATS) at home and 18-36-3 ATS as a favorite this NBA season.

Combine those two factors and it's even worse as the Heat are just 10-23-2 ATS as a home favorite. Fading Miami at home has been cashing all year, so trust that trend on Tuesday. Atlanta has been average in many ways, but it is notably 14-11-1 as a road underdog. The Hawks at least keep it close.

Bet: Atlanta Hawks +5.5 (-110)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.