Alabama vs Kansas State Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for 2022 Sugar Bowl (Defenses Excel at Caesars Superdome)

Alabama vs Kansas State Sugar Bowl Game Info

2022 College Football Game - Sugar Bowl
No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) vs. No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats (10-3)
Date: Saturday, Dec. 31, 2022
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Caesars Superdome — New Orleans, LA
Coverage: ESPN

With the 2022-23 college football regular season in the rearview mirror, bowl games are right around the corner. The Sugar Bowl is set for kickoff on Saturday, Dec. 31, and pits the No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide against the No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats. This will be Alabama's 17th appearance at the Sugar Bowl, but Kansas State's first.

Although Alabama finished the season with a 10-2 record, it did not qualify for the SEC Championship game for the first time since 2019. Meanwhile, Kansas State posted a 9-3 record and capped off a successful season by taking down TCU by a score of 31-28 (OT) in the Big 12 Championship game.

Alabama vs Kansas State Odds & Spread

All NCAAF betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: BAMA: (-152) | KANST: (+126)
Spread: BAMA: -3.5 (+100) | KANST: +3.5 (-122)
Total: 54.5 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)

Alabama enters this contest as a small favorite on the moneyline and spread. This clash also features a total of 54.5 points, which is about average when compared to the rest of the college football bowl slate.

Alabama vs Kansas State Prediction & Pick

These teams have reached this bowl in very different ways. Alabama entered the season touted as a SEC Championship contender, yet failed to live up to those expectations due to a few close losses. Kansas State was not originally seen as a Big 12 threat, yet proved everyone wrong week after week.

Momentum is key at this point in the season and the Wildcats have it. They are expected to have zero opt-outs, meaning their stellar defense will be ready to go. Kansas State allows only 21.8 points per game (No. 27 in FBS) and has a third-down conversion percentage of 33.9% (No. 24 in FBS).

Alabama has lost in three of its last four Sugar Bowl appearances, so I'll back Kansas State to pull off the upset.

Final Score Prediction: Alabama: 24 | Kansas State: 27

Alabama vs Kansas State Betting Trends

- Alabama is 5-6-1 against the spread (ATS) this season.
- The total has hit the under in seven of Alabama's 12 games this season.
- Kansas State is 9-3-1 ATS this season.
- The total has hit the under in seven of Kansas State's 13 games this season.

Alabama vs Kansas State Best Bet

Fading Alabama in big games is always a risky move, which makes shifting gears to the total a smart move here. This total is just a bit too high considering the power of these defenses. Neither team is allowing more than 21.8 points, 373.8 total yards or 19.6 first downs per game on the season.

Each of those marks rank among the top 50 teams in FBS. The total has hit the under in seven of Kansas State's last nine games played in December as well as in three of Alabama's last five Sugar Bowl appearances. The possibility of big-name opt-outs for Alabama looms large in this game, too, which could leave them shorthanded on offense.

Bet: Under 54.5 Points (-110)

Larry Rupp is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Larry Rupp also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username phillyfan424. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.