World Series Betting Guide: Rangers at Diamondbacks, Game 5

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Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks, Game 5

Diamondbacks Over 3.5 Runs (-154)

The Texas Rangers may be just one win away from a World Series title, but I don't expect the Arizona Diamondbacks to go down easily.

Arizona has scored five, nine, one, and seven runs in the four games this series, so getting to four runs certainly wouldn't be a foreign concept for them.

While the Rangers are pitching their postseason stud, Nathan Eovaldi, tonight, the D-backs already proved they could score runs on him. They knocked the righty out after 4.2 innings in Game 1, totaling six hits and five runs, although they struck out eight times. Of Arizona's 13 batted balls against Eovaldi, six were classified as hard hits (46.2%) and two were barreled (15.4%).

That was really the only game that Eovaldi has struggled during the playoffs. Even with that rough outing, he sports a 3.52 ERA and 2.63 xFIP across 30.2 postseason innings this year. On top of that, he's managed a 28.6% strikeout rate compared to a measly 4.0% walk rate.

Still, the Diamondbacks have performed decently well against righties dating back to the regular season. In that split, the Diamondbacks ranked 13th in wOBA (.320), 16th in ISO (.164), and 14th in OPS (.737). Individually, Corbin Carroll (.389 wOBA), Ketel Marte (.354), and Christian Walker (.341) all posted wOBAs north of .340 against righties.

Marte (1.005), Carroll (.959), and Geraldo Perdomo (.994) have kept that trend going into the postseason with absurd OPS numbers in that split.

Even if Eovaldi shoves, Arizona is bound to see some of Texas' bullpen -- just as they have all series.

The D-backs lit up Texas' bullpen for six runs yesterday, and they've forced the Rangers to dig deep into their bag of arms the last two games. Josh Sborz (1.0 inning; 16 pitches) and Aroldis Chapman (1; 16) were used on Monday, while Dane Dunning (1; 16), Cody Bradford (1; 13), Brock Burke (0.1; 14), Chris Stratton (0.2; 15), and Will Smith (0.2; 18) saw action yesterday.

Most consequential, the Rangers' most important reliever, Jose Leclerc, has thrown two days in a row. He threw 26 pitches in a combined 1.1 innings between Games 3 and 4.

With the Snakes having already shown the ability to put up runs in bunches against Eovaldi and factoring in Texas' depleted bullpen, I like Arizona to score at least four runs tonight as they attempt to force a Game 6.

It doesn't hurt that numberFire's model projects Arizona to score 3.78 runs today.

The value isn't great here at -154, but if you like two other bets for this game, you could take advantage of FanDuel's 30% Same Game Parlay Profit Boost for Game 5 of the World Series.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.